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Thread: Latest Climate Report Feeds into Alarmist Fearmongering

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Latest Climate Report Feeds into Alarmist Fearmongering

    Latest Climate Report Feeds into Alarmist Fearmongering

    I'm trying to refrain from any hint at sarcasm so as not to trigger our junior scientists, so I'll just post the article....

    The doomsday scenarios in the National Climate Assessment are close to impossible.

    The latest National Climate Assessment, released just last week, aims to plant yet another seed of climate catastrophism into the mind of the public. Predictably, its worst-case scenarios got huge play in the media. After all, disaster sells.

    But the doomsday scenarios that animated talking heads throughout the weekend aren’t just highly unlikely; they’re close to impossible. For example, the report speculated that climate “inaction” could result in as much as a 10 percent drop in U.S. gross domestic product by 2100. Admittedly, a lot can happen in 82 years. But a 10 percent drop in GDP is more than twice the loss suffered during the Great Recession.

    How could things get so bad? Well, put garbage in, and you’ll get garbage out. The study, funded in part by climate warrior Tom Steyer, calculates these costs by assuming that the world will be 15 degrees Fahrenheit warmer by 2100. That mind-boggling assumption is even higher than the worst-case scenario predicted by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In other words, it is completely unrealistic.

    Other scary projections in the National Climate Assessment rely on a theoretical climate trajectory known as Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) — one of four trajectories that climatologists use to estimate the effects of different greenhouse-gas concentrations.

    To put it plainly, RCP 8.5 assumes a combination of extreme factors — all bad — that are not likely to all coincide. It assumes “the fastest population growth (a doubling of Earth’s population to 12 billion), the lowest rate of technology development, slow GDP growth, a massive increase in world poverty, plus high energy use and emissions.”

    This extraordinary scenario assumes a massive increase in coal consumption — completely ignoring the dramatic increase in natural-gas production from the shale revolution. It also ignores technological innovations that continue to occur in nuclear and renewable technologies.

    1 Tim 2:5 For there is one God, and one mediator between God and men, the man Christ Jesus.

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    Must...have...caffeine One Bad Pig's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Latest Climate Report Feeds into Alarmist Fearmongering

    I'm trying to refrain from any hint at sarcasm so as not to trigger our junior scientists, so I'll just post the article....

    The doomsday scenarios in the National Climate Assessment are close to impossible.

    The latest National Climate Assessment, released just last week, aims to plant yet another seed of climate catastrophism into the mind of the public. Predictably, its worst-case scenarios got huge play in the media. After all, disaster sells.

    But the doomsday scenarios that animated talking heads throughout the weekend aren’t just highly unlikely; they’re close to impossible. For example, the report speculated that climate “inaction” could result in as much as a 10 percent drop in U.S. gross domestic product by 2100. Admittedly, a lot can happen in 82 years. But a 10 percent drop in GDP is more than twice the loss suffered during the Great Recession.

    How could things get so bad? Well, put garbage in, and you’ll get garbage out. The study, funded in part by climate warrior Tom Steyer, calculates these costs by assuming that the world will be 15 degrees Fahrenheit warmer by 2100. That mind-boggling assumption is even higher than the worst-case scenario predicted by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In other words, it is completely unrealistic.

    Other scary projections in the National Climate Assessment rely on a theoretical climate trajectory known as Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) — one of four trajectories that climatologists use to estimate the effects of different greenhouse-gas concentrations.

    To put it plainly, RCP 8.5 assumes a combination of extreme factors — all bad — that are not likely to all coincide. It assumes “the fastest population growth (a doubling of Earth’s population to 12 billion), the lowest rate of technology development, slow GDP growth, a massive increase in world poverty, plus high energy use and emissions.”

    This extraordinary scenario assumes a massive increase in coal consumption — completely ignoring the dramatic increase in natural-gas production from the shale revolution. It also ignores technological innovations that continue to occur in nuclear and renewable technologies.
    With a title like that, I'm afraid your efforts are doomed to fail.
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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by One Bad Pig View Post
    With a title like that, I'm afraid your efforts are doomed to fail.
    Well, yeah, but I just used the title of the article unaltered.

    1 Tim 2:5 For there is one God, and one mediator between God and men, the man Christ Jesus.

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    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Because predicting the future is uncertain, and political action can change the amounts of greenhouse gases being emitted, it is common in these sort of reports to analyse different possible scenarios. e.g. one can consider the scenario where humanity takes drastic action to rapidly curb emissions; one where a little bit of action is taken to curb emissions; and one where emissions continue to grow at current pace. A great deal of thought, discussion, and consideration with regard to preparing these reports goes into exactly how these models of likely future emissions are to be constructed, and how likely the model is to occur. Here's a graph of some future possibilities:



    Any report like this has to grapple with two questions: How likely is a given emissions scenario? And, if that scenario occurred, what would the effects be on the country or planet?

    Ideally a report should select two or more scenarios which span the range of the most likely futures, and often include a 3rd scenario in the middle which they consider the 'most probable' future as a midpoint. This particular report selected RCP 4.5 (occasionally using RCP 2.6) as a good scenario and RCP 8.5 as the terrible scenario with RCP 6.0 occasionally being discussed as middle-ground.

    Naturally, the worst case consequences the report considers are those associated with the worse case scenario for the emissions it considers. How likely a person considers any particular emissions scenario to be is going to be a product of how they think human civilization will change demographically, technologically, and politically over the next 80 years. But the idea is that we can come up with a reasonable range of predictions for those things based on past data, current trends, etc.

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    Must...have...caffeine One Bad Pig's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    Any report like this has to grapple with two questions: How likely is a given emissions scenario? And, if that scenario occurred, what would the effects be on the country or planet?
    Know what else it should grapple with? The fact that not one prior report has met with any predictive success. How does it differ in its base assumptions from what has been done before?
    Enter the Church and wash away your sins. For here there is a hospital and not a court of law. Do not be ashamed to enter the Church; be ashamed when you sin, but not when you repent. – St. John Chrysostom

    Veritas vos Liberabit<>< Learn Greek <>< Look here for an Orthodox Church in America<><Ancient Faith Radio

    I recommend you do not try too hard and ...research as little as possible. Such weighty things give me a headache. - Shunyadragon, Baha'i apologist

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    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Well, yeah, but I just used the title of the article unaltered.
    Here's another provocative headline:

    "The media got it all wrong on the new US climate report"

    That's the title of a New York Post article by a scientist who generally accepts the global warming hypothesis but also knows junk science when he sees it.

    https://nypost.com/2018/11/28/the-me...limate-report/

    The general thrust of the editorial is that the government's climate report paints an implausible if not impossible worst case scenario.

  7. Amen Cow Poke amen'd this post.
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    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by One Bad Pig View Post
    The fact that not one prior report has met with any predictive success.
    Citation needed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    Citation needed.
    You're wanting him to prove a negative?

    1 Tim 2:5 For there is one God, and one mediator between God and men, the man Christ Jesus.

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    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    You're wanting him to prove a negative?
    I am not merely skeptical of his claim that every prior report has failed in its predictions, I am skeptical of the claim that any major prior report has failed in its predictions. Instead of making his wild, and to my mind, totally fabricated claims, I would like to see him cite some actual examples.

    Have there actually been any serious analyses of the multi-department massive-scientific-effort kind that this report is, that have turned out to be totally wrong like he is claiming? Can he cite even a single example to support his claims?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    I am not merely skeptical of his claim that every prior report has failed in its predictions, I am skeptical of the claim that any major prior report has failed in its predictions. Instead of making his wild, and to my mind, totally fabricated claims, I would like to see him cite some actual examples.

    Have there actually been any serious analyses of the multi-department massive-scientific-effort kind that this report is, that have turned out to be totally wrong like he is claiming? Can he cite even a single example to support his claims?
    I think you have tremendously expanded what he said, so I'll leave it to him to answer.

    1 Tim 2:5 For there is one God, and one mediator between God and men, the man Christ Jesus.

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