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North Carolina Voting - and Consistency

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  • Originally posted by Starlight View Post
    Okay, as Roy has tried to explain to you, there are two very different types of ways of affecting election outcomes.

    One is done by a voter trying to be sneaky, and involves voting twice (or more), or voting under an alias. As Trump puts it:
    Sometimes they go to their car, put on a different hat, put on a different shirt, come in and vote again.

    Or as one poster on this site alleged to me "half the cemetery votes", meaning that people come in and vote in the name of dead people (largely an impossibility given people get removed from the electoral role after they die, and a claim that dead people had voted was debunked when they found what had happened was the old people had cast their mail-in ballots early and then themselves died prior to election day).

    The Republican idea is that such fraudulent behavior on the part of sneaky voters is so serious and widespread that voters should need to show ID to prove they are who they say they are and can thus only vote once and under their real name (the part where people can get around this by fake IDs is usually ignored).

    I agree that if such fraud was rampant, steps would need to be taken. So how rampant is it? Well the Heritage Foundation has a database of every single such instance they can find in the US in the last 40 years and the rate works out to be 1.2 votes per state per election cycle. Since very very few races ever come down to a single vote, it's probably safe to conclude that voter fraud of this type has never affected the outcome of any race in modern US history. A margin of victory of <100 votes is generally considered tiny and pretty rare, and voter fraud wouldn't even affect that sort of race. In any election there are typically several ballots that are ambiguous where it's hard to discern the voter's intention, so in the case where it did indeed come down to one vote, even subjective decisions about a few ambiguous votes could override the fact that some sneaky voter might have changed their hat in their car and voted twice.

    And the "solution" the Republicans propose to "solve" this "problem" which doesn't seem to have ever affected any election outcome, is voter ID. But the trouble with that is it just so happens that around 25% of African Americans in inner-cities don't happen to own photo-IDs and thus couldn't vote, and they pretty reliably vote democratic. And while, it would be theoretically possible, if somewhat expensive to go to the trouble of trying to get them all valid photo-IDs (assuming Republicans didn't close all such issuing centers in black areas, as they are want to do), there will always be some, because there always are, who don't bother, because it's too much effort, because they're too busy working or haven't got the time or the money, or can't easily get transport to the issuing place, or because they're sick etc. And so, even if your effort to get everyone ID is excellent, and well-funded, etc, there will always be some who don't end up getting them and who don't vote as a result of not getting one. Could be only a few thousand people, could be a million people nationwide. And so, your "solution" to literally 1 bad vote per state, ends up preventing literally thousands of people per state who have a valid right to vote from casting their votes. Disenfranchising a thousand to stop one, is not a solution, it's a problem.

    So voter fraud isn't a problem, and voter ID isn't a solution.


    But there's a totally different type of election fraud, called Electoral Fraud. And this is when election officials involved in conducting the election itself take actions that can affect large numbers of votes. e.g. "My vote counting machine just happened to creatively count the votes, how sad, never mind". Or "what giant pile of ballots I had? That fire over there? That's just for roasting marshmallows." Or "look at this giant pile of ballots I found, all Totally Legit, just please don't check that all the signatures are identical".

    Because the number of votes that typically need to be changed to affect the outcome of an election is typically pretty large (typically in the tens of thousands), actually changing the outcome of an election involves changing a very large number of votes, and thus typically requires systematic effort by a group involved in conducting the election because only they have access to the votes in such large quantities. Voter Fraud where an old lady who votes a second time because she forgot she voted the first time contributes only one vote different to the outcome (assuming she's not caught, which she usually is) and thus has virtually zero effect because one vote is such a tiny amount. But Election Fraud, where the election officials have large-scale access to ballots and counts, allows them to change the numbers by the thousands or hundreds of thousands necessary to secure a different outcome.

    This is why electronic voting in particular is so dangerous because it allows Electoral Fraud on a grand, grand scale. Whoever has programmed (or, potentially, hacked) the electronic voting machines can make the final count say whatever they feel like. They essentially have access to all the ballots.


    ...and that, in a nutshell is why Voter Fraud where a nasty voter tries to scam the system by voting twice and wearing a disguise, isn't interesting or relevant, why voter ID is a stupid "solution" to prevent it because it itself is a bigger problem than what it solves, and why Electoral Fraud by the officials conducting the elections and/or voting machine manufacturers and/or hackers into those machines are the actual threat to the integrity of elections. And that is why the Republican party's tendency to purge voter rolls in order to prevent thousands of people voting (i.e. pretty much electoral fraud on the Republican's part IMO), while they yell "look over there instead! There might be some voter somewhere casting one extra vote!" (voter fraud) is so galling to me. They commit the big crime to steal the election while trying to distract with claims that someone somewhere might be committing a tiny crime that won't matter.
    tl;dr.

    Star, most of the voter fraud we have been complaining about over the years could probably be better categorized as "election fraud" - such as someone signing up dead people to vote, or someone submitting faked ballots, or messing with the ballot boxes. Such as what just happened in Florida. Yet everytime we bring up such issues, we are told it is insignificant or it's just made up.

    So this hair splitting of voter fraud vs election fraud is just a way to nitpick the topic so that you can accept fraud in this instance while still denying it at any other time by categorizing it differently.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Starlight View Post
      I suggest you read the explanation I wrote for Sparko. But to bullet point:

      - The number of people who commit voter fraud is tiny. About 1 illegal vote per state per election, or ~0.0003% of votes cast.
      - Voter fraud has probably affected zero election outcomes in US history as a result.
      - Getting everyone voter ID would be very expensive (govt bureaucrats paid to issue IDs, people paying to get IDs, advertising spent to encourage IDs, time taken out of people's lives to apply for IDs) and thousands or even millions of people simply wouldn't get them (due to sickness, being busy with work, being elderly, or simply not bothering) no matter how much money was spent.
      - So the "solution" to solve 1 bad vote per state per election, ends up suppressing thousands of votes per state per election as people who ought to be able to vote end up not voting because of the requirement.
      - A "solution" that is 1000x worse than the "problem" in terms of affecting vote counts is no solution at all, it's a problem.

      That's just stupid. People HAVE to have Photo IDs to even function in our society. To drive on the roads, to get a bank account, etc. Getting everyone a photo ID is not expensive because anyone functioning in this society already has one. And most places will give them out free or at a very small charge (under $10)

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Starlight View Post
        And I honestly think I stated a self-evident truism, and find your demanding evidence for it as bizarre as if you had found my statement that 1+1=2 somehow needed explaining. Your questioning of it comes across to me as bizarre weaseling and bluster and makes me wonder what's going on with you.

        It takes extra time to discuss what is and isn't a valid ID with them. It takes extra time to obtain the ID, it takes extra effort to carry the ID around with them. Some people will get to the polls and realize they haven't brought their ID with them and have to go back for it, or just leave and not bother to return to vote - this has been happening to me recently with supermarket shopping now that we have to bring our own bags due to the removal of plastic bags.
        whaaa? So voting is important but getting a photo ID isn't? They can't be bothered to take the extra time and effort to get a photo ID but they should be allowed to vote anyway?

        Well luckily for you, the rule in most locations that require Photo ID is that if you forgot it at home, you can still vote and fill out an affidavit and then bring back the photo ID later to verify it.

        And you are using your forgetfullness of bringing grocery bags as evidence?


        Given how important I think the right to vote is, I find suppressing the vote via voter ID to be a serious moral evil, and so I find your statement here offensive and disgusting. You would suppress people's voting rights and justify that with "isn't it worth extra effort?" That statement belongs in the poll taxes era.
        If something is that important then yes it is worth the extra effort.


        And do you think those are "free" in terms of time and money spent on them in terms of cost of air-time, cost of viewer time, etc? By the time you add up all the costs it's not free.
        Your excuses are wearing pretty thin, Star.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
          whaaa? So voting is important but getting a photo ID isn't? They can't be bothered to take the extra time and effort to get a photo ID but they should be allowed to vote anyway?
          It's the classic "we don't want to really help these people - we need them as a political football!"
          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
            It's the classic "we don't want to really help these people - we need them as a political football!"
            I would say that the people who don't have photo IDs in this country don't have them because they don't want them for some reason.

            Watching such shows as LivePD that follow the cops around all over the country I have seen that even homeless people have photo IDs and show them to the cops when asked. The only ones I see who don't have IDs on them are the ones with something to hide, like a warrant out on them or are holding drugs and don't want to be identified, or are illegals.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
              Meanwhile in the real world the MSM simply proclaims it does not exist and it is the studies that have shown otherwise.

              For example, a study conducted in 2014 by a team of researchers from Old Dominion University and George Mason University estimated that roughly 6.4% of non-citizens voted during the 2008 presidential election with an estimated 80% of them voting in favor of the Democrats (See Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections?). These numbers have been verified by others such as veteran pollster John McLaughlin who did a survey in 2013 which asked 800 Hispanic voters whether or not they were American citizens. A full 13% admitted they were not. You have to wonder how many were non-citizens but didn't admit it.

              And a relatively recent examination found over a thousand non citizens registered to vote in just a few counties in Virginia (which did not include the larger population centers where they tend to gravitate toward). Further, that just covered self-reported aliens -- those who were accidentally caught only because when they renewed their driver’s license, they told the truth that they were a non-citizen.

              There have been numerous state and local studies which uncovered numerous examples of voter fraud over the past few years such as the one in North Carolina where the state board of elections found 35,750 cases of double voting in 2012 -- people registered to vote there and in another state and who cast votes in both states [1]. And that is just in the 28 states which participated in the 2014 Interstate Crosscheck meaning the number is probably much higher[2].

              Ken Block of Simpatico Software Systems did a much more limited but similar examination of 21 states for the 2016 election and uncovered, for example, 2200 cases of double voting in Florida -- which is four times George W. Bush’s margin of victory in 2000. He estimates that if he had access to the records from all 50 states "there would be 40,000 duplicate votes if data from every state were available."

              One example of someone registered to vote in different states in the faux working stiff self-described "everyman" but actually a one percenter[3], mockumentary filmmaker Michael Moore who is registered in both Michigan and New York (but at least doesn't seem to have broken the law).

              The Heritage Foundation keeps a non-comprehensive election fraud database which has something like 1100 examples of proven incidents of fraud resulting in 938 criminal convictions and 43 civil penalties[4]. And Recently Investor’s Business Daily reported that according to a study of U. S. census data, the U.S. has more registered voters than actual active live voters.

              Finally, there is this.
              Please pay attention to the bolded part. Note how they admit to orchestrating massive voter fraud and how easy it is to do.












              1. To put this in perspective the election of the state's Lt. Governor was decided by only 7000 votes.

              Shortly after this story broke Kim Strach, the executive director of the North Carolina State Board of Elections, referred 31 cases of alleged voter fraud to county prosecutors with 19 of them involved allegations of people voting in North Carolina and in another state. Two other cases involved someone impersonating another voter and casting a ballot.

              Moreover, a separate investigation of death records from the Department of Health and Human Services, the Board revealed 81 deceased voters were still voting.

              2. Some of the most heavily populated states like California, Florida, New York, and Texas (those 4 alone represent a third of the U.S. population) do not participate.

              3. The link to Smoking Gun exposes him for the liar that he is, and here you can see about his getting caught pretending that he isn't in the 1% and here you can see what a sleazy hypocrite he is as he pretends to be a friend of the common worker

              4. And keep in mind deliberate voting fraud is not an easy thing to prove. In many cases you pretty much need a confession or boasting about it on Social Media, otherwise you can simply claim it was a mistake and get off with a warning. What this means is the 938 criminal convictions is just the barest tip of the iceberg.
              Here are 9 different studies okay, both government and private studies, that show there is virtually no voter fraud. Even Chris Kobach, Trumps appointed voter fraud tsar, couldn't find any significant voter fraud. He then went on to lose his own election for Governor of Kansas after trying to make it more difficult for Kansans to vote. Karma!

              http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/w...ually-nothing/

              http://www.brennancenter.org/analysi...ter-fraud-myth
              Last edited by JimL; 12-10-2018, 08:27 AM.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                I would say that the people who don't have photo IDs in this country don't have them because they don't want them for some reason.

                Watching such shows as LivePD that follow the cops around all over the country I have seen that even homeless people have photo IDs and show them to the cops when asked. The only ones I see who don't have IDs on them are the ones with something to hide, like a warrant out on them or are holding drugs and don't want to be identified, or are illegals.
                And, as I have said, I routinely help people get their photo ID, and it's just birdbrained stupid to exaggerate the expense or complexity of it. Sure it takes time, but most worthwhile things do.
                The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by JimL View Post
                  Here are 9 different studies okay, both government and private studies, that show there is virtually no voter fraud. Even Chris Kobach, Trumps appointed voter fraud tsar, couldn't find any significant voter fraud. He then went on to lose his own election for Governor of Kansas after trying to make it more difficult for Kansans to vote. Karma!

                  http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/w...ually-nothing/

                  http://www.brennancenter.org/analysi...ter-fraud-myth
                  Your first link doesn't work. The bulk of the second link rests on the rate of incidence of people being prosecuted for in-person fraud, which is akin to assuming that the rate of tickets for speeding accurately captures the rate of people driving over the speed limit where the speed isn't even being monitored.
                  Last edited by One Bad Pig; 12-10-2018, 11:14 AM.
                  Enter the Church and wash away your sins. For here there is a hospital and not a court of law. Do not be ashamed to enter the Church; be ashamed when you sin, but not when you repent. – St. John Chrysostom

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                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by One Bad Pig View Post
                    Your first link doesn't work. The bulk of the second link rests on the rate of incidence of people being prosecuted for in-person fraud, which is akin to assuming that the rate of tickets for speeding accurately captures the rate of people driving over the speed limit where the speed isn't even being monitored.
                    fify
                    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                      fify
                      Yeah.
                      Enter the Church and wash away your sins. For here there is a hospital and not a court of law. Do not be ashamed to enter the Church; be ashamed when you sin, but not when you repent. – St. John Chrysostom

                      Veritas vos Liberabit<>< Learn Greek <>< Look here for an Orthodox Church in America<><Ancient Faith Radio
                      sigpic
                      I recommend you do not try too hard and ...research as little as possible. Such weighty things give me a headache. - Shunyadragon, Baha'i apologist

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                        That's just stupid. People HAVE to have Photo IDs to even function in our society. To drive on the roads, to get a bank account, etc. Getting everyone a photo ID is not expensive because anyone functioning in this society already has one. And most places will give them out free or at a very small charge (under $10)
                        And yet again I'll point out that if the person pleads it is too expensive my state will provide a photo I.D. at no charge. If they proclaim it is just too inconvenient for them to go out and get one a state official will come to their residence.

                        None of the phony baloney B.S. excuses apply here.

                        I'm always still in trouble again

                        "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                        "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                        "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                          And yet again I'll point out that if the person pleads it is too expensive my state will provide a photo I.D. at no charge. If they proclaim it is just too inconvenient for them to go out and get one a state official will come to their residence.

                          None of the phony baloney B.S. excuses apply here.
                          Which is why I challenged this particular "it's WAY to expensive and time consuming" excuse.
                          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                            And yet again I'll point out that if the person pleads it is too expensive my state will provide a photo I.D. at no charge. If they proclaim it is just too inconvenient for them to go out and get one a state official will come to their residence.

                            None of the phony baloney B.S. excuses apply here.
                            yeah, if it is "I am too lazy to get a photo ID" then they don't deserve to vote. It isn't too hard, or too expensive. And it is required for just about anything in our society.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                              yeah, if it is "I am too lazy to get a photo ID" then they don't deserve to vote. It isn't too hard, or too expensive. And it is required for just about anything in our society.
                              So I would love to see an honest survey about how many people there are who would want to vote, plan on voting, but don't have an acceptable photo ID. I've seem some of these surveys, and when you look at the actual wording of the questions, it's like "do you have ready access to a photo ID". That could mean I've temporarily lost it, or I left it at my counsin's house... and I don't think they actually go through the list of what is 'acceptable' ID. Maybe somebody doesn't have a current valid drivers license, but that's not required, for example, in Georgia. They even allow for an expired license, which kinda kills the "too old to drive" thing.
                              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                                So I would love to see an honest survey about how many people there are who would want to vote, plan on voting, but don't have an acceptable photo ID. I've seem some of these surveys, and when you look at the actual wording of the questions, it's like "do you have ready access to a photo ID". That could mean I've temporarily lost it, or I left it at my counsin's house... and I don't think they actually go through the list of what is 'acceptable' ID. Maybe somebody doesn't have a current valid drivers license, but that's not required, for example, in Georgia. They even allow for an expired license, which kinda kills the "too old to drive" thing.
                                I don't need no photo ID to vote. I am traveling!

                                Comment

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