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Shutdown Over Border Security?

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  • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    What do you think that reason is...?
    Because "Trump is mean and a Ruskie" makes them look like idiots.
    That's what
    - She

    Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
    - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

    I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
    - Stephen R. Donaldson

    Comment


    • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
      The "elections have consequences" quote has long been attributed to Obama as being from a response he made to Republican Whip Eric Cantor concerning the ACA. Your comment about "scant evidence" made me go digging. Pretty much every reference I find sources back to the same place. I am not not finding any other corroborating site, or independent report. That source appears to be a blog of some sort. So I guess I have to acknowledge that there is no strong evidence that Obama ever said this - unless someone else can point me to other sources...?
      Your research is correct. My understanding is that it was originally claimed on blog that such a conversation had occurred (although your link looks like an internet forum rather than a blog?), and it went viral among the Republican base from that source. AFAIK no participant in the alleged conversation has ever confirmed the truth of the claim nor any serious media outlet run the story, so it remains unconfirmed hearsay / rumor / conspiracy / made up nonsense.
      Last edited by Starlight; 01-14-2019, 06:14 PM.
      "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
      "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
      "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
        Adam Silver even admitted they were horribly wrong and that they needed to seriously adjust their methodology.
        Are you talking about Nate Silver? I have no idea who Adam Silver is and a search on "Adam Silver poll" produced nothing. I would like to see a source for where Nate Silver said this (if this is who you are talking about). Nate and the 538 crew were some of the first to raise the "alarm" that the polls were shifting in the final weeks and days of the election and that a Trump win was more likely than a lot of people and websites thought. And Note that 538 (like RCP) is an aggregator. And a statistical analysis and prediction is not the same as a poll.
        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
          You can't be that naive...
          Oh trust me - I'm not
          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
            Because "Trump is mean and a Ruskie" makes them look like idiots.
            So the polls don't ask "why" because they are afraid the respondents will look like idiots?


            Surely you can't be that naive...
            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
              No he can't. His companies don't own the land.
              Yeah, that's another good one. I remember when you conservatives were rabidly against eminent domain. All of a sudden it's all good? If Obama had ever proposed such a thing Fox News would have had you all up in arms about the government taking peoples property. Oh, and we won't even mention the price tag for that boondoggle of an idea.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
                Again, most Americans are stupid.
                No, it's only a minority, approximately equal to Trumps approval rating.

                Comment


                • So this article is interesting. Here's what I think is wrong with Mulvaney's and Vought's position: a shutdown is actually MORE expensive for the government than regular operation. This is because the workers are eventually given their pay, including the "unnecessary" furloughed workers. So same amount out - without the work getting done. And when they get back all of that backlogged work needs to be done so... can you say overtime? Temps? Contractors?

                  The furloughed "unnecessary" workers are basically getting weeks and weeks of vacation time - they just have to hang in there long enough to collect at the end. For the furloughed workers - that may not be as big a problem. They can go looking for other jobs (of course, low unemployment will be their enemy). It's the "necessary" employees that are really screwed: they have to keep working without the pay, which means any paying work they get has to be in addition to their day job. I would imagine some of these are family people - so there goes the family time. So much for "family values."

                  Really - Trump should wake up and begin negotiating. However, I truly hope he doesn't. Much as it means these people are going to continue to hurt - every day the shutdown continues erodes Trump's numbers and support. Not his base, mind you - but the rest. If we have to suffer some pain before people wake up to the travesty in our White House - then so be it. So go, Trump, go! Double Down! Make that shutdown last until Tuesday, November 3, 2020!

                  And if Dems are smart, they'll start grassroots programs to help the furloughed employees meet their financial obligations. That would make them serious heroes. Maybe a GoFundMe page?
                  Last edited by carpedm9587; 01-14-2019, 07:12 PM.
                  The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                  I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                  Comment


                  • In the future they should probably plot budgets for government employees and contractors out further than the rest of the budget, so that if any shutdowns occur, people can at least still get paid and don't have a reason to dodge work. The VA is still getting funded because it got some kind of extended budget plan from the last time its funding got set, so I figure they could do something like that for other parts of government to at least provide pay for people.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
                      She isn't interested in ANY wall and her pansy socialist base is cheering her on. And the liberal media is narrating the story just how she wants it - with half truths and outright lies. Not that you'd know what the truth was about US border security anyway...
                      She is and she’s already voted on it, namely more than $1.3 billion for new fencing in the Rio Grande Valley and funding to replace secondary fencing in San Diego and other existing fencing.

                      No it isn't. They have shown time and time again that they will throw a token pittance to a few small areas to hire an extra border guard or two, and maybe one or two drones to fly around and record border crossings to post to YouTube, but that's about it. That's why CNN called successful border security a "non-story".
                      Not so. Pelosi is interested in sensible border security and all the various options available for it. She, along with most Americans, is NOT interested in a “great, big, beautiful” useless wall on its own.

                      That "bipartisan" legislation was nowhere near enough to do what needs to be done. But again, if you are ignorant of what the border patrol actually say they need, you have no clue how much it costs.
                      What border patrol say they need is what Pelosi says she’s supporting.

                      you forgot the [/cite=CNN] after that turd.
                      Not just CNN blaming Coulter and Rush Limbaugh for threatening Trump with the loss of core-base support.

                      Exactly. This quote shows the utter ignorance of Congress on BOTH sides on what is needed to better secure our borders. Walls are neither wasteful nor ineffective. I've shown you several times that it is quite effective in reducing illegal crossings, yet you continue to barf this liberal media lie from thousands of miles away.




                      1.3 B is only enough to build about 50 miles of new border fence. Talk about ineffective
                      Strategic new areas of fencing is just one component of what’s required for improved border security. It was at least a start. Trump with his unrealistic "all or nothing" strategy looks like getting nothing.
                      “He felt that his whole life was a kind of dream and he sometimes wondered whose it was and whether they were enjoying it.” - Douglas Adams.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                        Are you talking about Nate Silver?
                        Yes. Sorry. Adam Silver is the Commissioner of the NBA

                        I would like to see a source for where Nate Silver said this (if this is who you are talking about).
                        It's a summary of what he said pollsters needed to do.

                        Nate and the 538 crew were some of the first to raise the "alarm" that the polls were shifting in the final weeks and days of the election and that a Trump win was more likely than a lot of people and websites thought.
                        He showed the polls were shifting TOWARD Hillary in the last few weeks leading up to his article on Nov 7. He said shortly after the election:

                        Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-missed-trump-we-asked-pollsters-why/

                        There’s a lot we still don’t know. We don’t yet have final margins in many states; we’re using ones from Wednesday afternoon. We also don’t know yet if this miss was really due to systematic problems among pollsters, as opposed to shifts toward Trump after their last polls ended (though polls showed Clinton gaining in the final days, not Trump).

                        © Copyright Original Source





                        And Note that 538 (like RCP) is an aggregator. And a statistical analysis and prediction is not the same as a poll.
                        Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/

                        So did many of the statistical models of the campaign, of course. While FiveThirtyEight’s final “polls-only” forecast gave Trump a comparatively generous 3-in-10 chance (29 percent) of winning the Electoral College, it was somewhat outside the consensus, with some other forecasts showing Trump with less than a 1 in 100 shot. Those are radically different forecasts: one model put Trump’s chances about 30 times higher than another, even though they were using basically the same data. Instead of serving as an indication of the challenges of poll interpretation, however, “the models” were often lumped together because they all showed Clinton favored, and they probably reinforced traditional reporters’ confidence in Clinton’s prospects.

                        But the overconfidence in Clinton’s chances wasn’t just because of the polls. National journalists usually interpreted conflicting and contradictory information as confirming their prior belief that Clinton would win. The most obvious error, given that Clinton won the popular vote by more than 2.8 million votes, is that they frequently mistook Clinton’s weakness in the Electoral College for being a strength. They also focused extensively on Clinton’s potential gains with Hispanic voters, but less on indications of a decline in African-American turnout. At moments when the polls showed the race tightening, meanwhile, reporters frequently focused on other factors, such as early voting and Democrats’ supposedly superior turnout operation, as reasons that Clinton was all but assured of victory.

                        © Copyright Original Source

                        That's what
                        - She

                        Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                        - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                        I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                        - Stephen R. Donaldson

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                          So the polls don't ask "why" because they are afraid the respondents will look like idiots?
                          Well, I've found that most pollsters that have called me in the past aren't interested in any explanation or deviation from their little boxes. They want yes/no answers and no reason why. Many of the questions are I often wonder about the motivations of someone asking you a question and they don't want your explanation. I was being overly dramatic in my response in case you missed it.


                          Surely you can't be that naive...
                          Nah. Just sarcastic as all get out.
                          That's what
                          - She

                          Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                          - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                          I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                          - Stephen R. Donaldson

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by JimL View Post
                            Yeah, that's another good one. I remember when you conservatives were rabidly against eminent domain.
                            He can't personally take the land, you clod. Eminent domain means the government takes it, not an individual.

                            All of a sudden it's all good? If Obama had ever proposed such a thing Fox News would have had you all up in arms about the government taking peoples property. Oh, and we won't even mention the price tag for that boondoggle of an idea.
                            Do your two remaining brain cells ever meet?
                            That's what
                            - She

                            Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                            - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                            I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                            - Stephen R. Donaldson

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by JimL View Post
                              No, it's only a minority, approximately equal to Trumps approval rating.
                              Sorry, Jimmy, but no. It's most Americans, and ESPECIALLY ones like you. And you are their king.
                              That's what
                              - She

                              Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                              - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                              I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                              - Stephen R. Donaldson

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                                So this article is interesting. Here's what I think is wrong with Mulvaney's and Vought's position: a shutdown is actually MORE expensive for the government than regular operation. This is because the workers are eventually given their pay, including the "unnecessary" furloughed workers. So same amount out - without the work getting done. And when they get back all of that backlogged work needs to be done so... can you say overtime? Temps? Contractors?

                                The furloughed "unnecessary" workers are basically getting weeks and weeks of vacation time - they just have to hang in there long enough to collect at the end. For the furloughed workers - that may not be as big a problem. They can go looking for other jobs (of course, low unemployment will be their enemy). It's the "necessary" employees that are really screwed: they have to keep working without the pay, which means any paying work they get has to be in addition to their day job. I would imagine some of these are family people - so there goes the family time. So much for "family values."

                                Really - Trump should wake up and begin negotiating. However, I truly hope he doesn't. Much as it means these people are going to continue to hurt - every day the shutdown continues erodes Trump's numbers and support. Not his base, mind you - but the rest. If we have to suffer some pain before people wake up to the travesty in our White House - then so be it. So go, Trump, go! Double Down! Make that shutdown last until Tuesday, November 3, 2020!

                                And if Dems are smart, they'll start grassroots programs to help the furloughed employees meet their financial obligations. That would make them serious heroes. Maybe a GoFundMe page?
                                They have to leave their Puerto Rico Winter Retreat resort first...
                                That's what
                                - She

                                Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                                - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                                I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                                - Stephen R. Donaldson

                                Comment

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