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Thread: Trump's Trade Deals...

  1. #71
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    Boy - you guys cannot seem to help yourself with the "make my case anecdotes."

    All three of these are marvelous examples of things that shouldn't happen. Now...can we see some statistics about what percentage of Chinese steel is evaluated as "substandard?" And why is the steel not being evaluated (and returned) before it is used if it is so bad?

    A few stories is not "data." It's just a few stories. Where is the data?
    Right... idly dismiss any source of information that undermines your position. It's the carpe way!

    Here's another source for you to ignore:

    Source: China dumping unsafe steel products in Saudi

    China is dumping huge quantities of unsafe steel products in Saudi Arabia in the absence of effective government control, a Saudi newspaper reported on Monday.

    'Okaz' Arabic language daily quoted Raed Al-Ajaji, chairman of the Saudi universal metal coating company Ltd (Unicoil), as saying China exported about 163,000 tonnes of steel to the Gulf Kingdom in the first 10 months of 2014, nearly 70 per cent of domestic demand.

    “The problem is not only in these large supplies, which amount to flooding and dumping, but also in the quality of these products. Our tests showed steel sheets imported from China violate international specifications,” he said.

    He said those sheets state that their thickness is 0.32 mlm but tests showed they are about 0.26 mlm. The tests, he added, also showed that zinc, which is used for protection against rusting, has a rate of 18-30 ml gm per metre in those sheets while the accepted average international rate is around 90 ml gm.

    “The most shocking result in the tests was that the coating of most Chinese steel products supplied to the Saudi market contained very high levels of lead, which is internationally banned.

    "The tests showed that the lead levels in some samples were as high as 50 times the level permitted internationally,” he said.

    Al-Ajaji estimated steel production in Saudi Arabia, the largest Arab economy, at around 380,000 tonnes per year and consumption at 255,000 tonnes.

    “This means there is a surplus of nearly 50 per cent in the local market…but this is no longer the real problem. The main problem now is the massive steel quantities being dumped in the local market, mainly from China. A large part of the steel sheets exported by that country to the Saudi market are bad and adulterated,” he said.

    https://www.emirates247.com/business...03-16-1.584339

    © Copyright Original Source


    But, no, you're absolutely right, I'm sure the variety of sources I've quoted from have all gotten it wrong.

    Meanwhile, another perspective on the trade war:

    Source: Chinese Goods are Less Than 2 Percent of U.S Consumer Spending

    Although the prospect of a tariff hike has loomed large in financial markets and the financial media this week, higher tariffs on imports from China will not likely have much of an impact on American consumers.

    Evidence from tariffs on steel, aluminum, and Chinese goods already in place indicates that businesses have not been able to pass higher costs of goods and materials on to consumers. Even though wages are rising, prices have been remarkably steady. In March, the index of personal consumption expenditures–the Fed’s favored measure of consumer prices–showed prices up just 1.5 percent over 12-months.

    One reason tariffs are unlikely to hurt U.S. consumers is that trade with China accounts for a very small fraction of U.S. spending. According to a recent study by an economist at the San Francisco Fed, imports make up around 11 percent of the $14.3 trillion of consumer spending in the U.S. Imports from China account for 16% of that, which translates into 1.76 percent of consumer spending.

    The tariffs that the Trump administration plans to hike apply to only around 34 percent of consumer spending on imports from China, according to a different study from the San Fran Fed. In other words, just over half a percentage point worth of overall U.S. consumer spending.

    If all of the tariffs were passed through to consumers–which has not happened judging by price data–the overall impact on prices would be a 0.1 percentage point rise, according to the San Fran Fred’s estimate.

    In other words, without the China tariffs, our 1.5 percent inflation rate would be 1.4 percent.

    Raising the tariff to 25 percent would roughly double the impact. So the personal consumption index rises to 1.6 percent.

    Keep in mind that the Fed is trying to move inflation toward its 2 percent target. Assuming the Fed can effectively hit its target, this means that consumer prices will be accelerating over the next year or two anyway. If tariffs raise prices by two-tenths of a percentage point, that just gives the Fed less work to do.

    In other words, our economy is well-prepared to sustain any costs of tariffs because we are in such a low-inflation environment.

    Even if the Trump administration expands the 25 percent tariff to cover all goods, the impact on prices would be just 0.4 percentage points, according to the San Fran Fed.

    That would move us closer to the Fed target–but we are headed there in any case. Tariffs may just eliminate some of the need to cut interest rates in order to accelerate inflation.

    To put it slightly differently: the tariffs will have no impact on U.S. consumers because their worst-case scenario effect would be to move price increases toward where the Fed is determined to see them go anyway.

    It is unlikely, however, that 100 percent of the cost of tariffs will be passed on to consumers. Some will be absorbed by businesses, others eliminated by U.S. importers sourcing materials from manufacturers outside of China. If just half of the hike to 25 percent is passed on, the impact on consumer prices would be a boost of just one-tenth of a percentage point.

    Our trade relationship with China has had massive impacts on the U.S. and global economy and may be one of the most important determinants of our economic and political future. But boosting tariffs on $250 billion of imports by fifteen-percentage points will not be noticeable to most consumers.

    https://www.breitbart.com/economy/20...umer-spending/

    © Copyright Original Source

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  2. #72
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    Right... idly dismiss any source of information that undermines your position. It's the carpe way!

    Here's another source for you to ignore:

    Source: China dumping unsafe steel products in Saudi

    China is dumping huge quantities of unsafe steel products in Saudi Arabia in the absence of effective government control, a Saudi newspaper reported on Monday.

    'Okaz' Arabic language daily quoted Raed Al-Ajaji, chairman of the Saudi universal metal coating company Ltd (Unicoil), as saying China exported about 163,000 tonnes of steel to the Gulf Kingdom in the first 10 months of 2014, nearly 70 per cent of domestic demand.

    “The problem is not only in these large supplies, which amount to flooding and dumping, but also in the quality of these products. Our tests showed steel sheets imported from China violate international specifications,” he said.

    He said those sheets state that their thickness is 0.32 mlm but tests showed they are about 0.26 mlm. The tests, he added, also showed that zinc, which is used for protection against rusting, has a rate of 18-30 ml gm per metre in those sheets while the accepted average international rate is around 90 ml gm.

    “The most shocking result in the tests was that the coating of most Chinese steel products supplied to the Saudi market contained very high levels of lead, which is internationally banned.

    "The tests showed that the lead levels in some samples were as high as 50 times the level permitted internationally,” he said.

    Al-Ajaji estimated steel production in Saudi Arabia, the largest Arab economy, at around 380,000 tonnes per year and consumption at 255,000 tonnes.

    “This means there is a surplus of nearly 50 per cent in the local market…but this is no longer the real problem. The main problem now is the massive steel quantities being dumped in the local market, mainly from China. A large part of the steel sheets exported by that country to the Saudi market are bad and adulterated,” he said.

    © Copyright Original Source

    Source: China dumping unsafe steel products in Saudi



    Actually, what I said was "where is the data about the percentage of Chinese steel that is flawed?" To that you give me yet another anecdote. Nicely done!

    BTW - did you note the emphasized line? In order to have poor quality steel you have to have a) a poor quality source and b) either an indiscriminate buyer or poor government oversight.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post

    © Copyright Original Source

    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    But, no, you're absolutely right, I'm sure the variety of sources I've quoted from have all gotten it wrong.

    Meanwhile, another perspective on the trade war:

    Source: Chinese Goods are Less Than 2 Percent of U.S Consumer Spending

    Although the prospect of a tariff hike has loomed large in financial markets and the financial media this week, higher tariffs on imports from China will not likely have much of an impact on American consumers.

    Evidence from tariffs on steel, aluminum, and Chinese goods already in place indicates that businesses have not been able to pass higher costs of goods and materials on to consumers. Even though wages are rising, prices have been remarkably steady. In March, the index of personal consumption expenditures–the Fed’s favored measure of consumer prices–showed prices up just 1.5 percent over 12-months.

    One reason tariffs are unlikely to hurt U.S. consumers is that trade with China accounts for a very small fraction of U.S. spending. According to a recent study by an economist at the San Francisco Fed, imports make up around 11 percent of the $14.3 trillion of consumer spending in the U.S. Imports from China account for 16% of that, which translates into 1.76 percent of consumer spending.

    The tariffs that the Trump administration plans to hike apply to only around 34 percent of consumer spending on imports from China, according to a different study from the San Fran Fed. In other words, just over half a percentage point worth of overall U.S. consumer spending.

    If all of the tariffs were passed through to consumers–which has not happened judging by price data–the overall impact on prices would be a 0.1 percentage point rise, according to the San Fran Fred’s estimate.

    In other words, without the China tariffs, our 1.5 percent inflation rate would be 1.4 percent.

    Raising the tariff to 25 percent would roughly double the impact. So the personal consumption index rises to 1.6 percent.

    Keep in mind that the Fed is trying to move inflation toward its 2 percent target. Assuming the Fed can effectively hit its target, this means that consumer prices will be accelerating over the next year or two anyway. If tariffs raise prices by two-tenths of a percentage point, that just gives the Fed less work to do.

    In other words, our economy is well-prepared to sustain any costs of tariffs because we are in such a low-inflation environment.

    Even if the Trump administration expands the 25 percent tariff to cover all goods, the impact on prices would be just 0.4 percentage points, according to the San Fran Fed.

    That would move us closer to the Fed target–but we are headed there in any case. Tariffs may just eliminate some of the need to cut interest rates in order to accelerate inflation.

    To put it slightly differently: the tariffs will have no impact on U.S. consumers because their worst-case scenario effect would be to move price increases toward where the Fed is determined to see them go anyway.

    It is unlikely, however, that 100 percent of the cost of tariffs will be passed on to consumers. Some will be absorbed by businesses, others eliminated by U.S. importers sourcing materials from manufacturers outside of China. If just half of the hike to 25 percent is passed on, the impact on consumer prices would be a boost of just one-tenth of a percentage point.

    Our trade relationship with China has had massive impacts on the U.S. and global economy and may be one of the most important determinants of our economic and political future. But boosting tariffs on $250 billion of imports by fifteen-percentage points will not be noticeable to most consumers.

    https://www.breitbart.com/economy/20...umer-spending/

    © Copyright Original Source

    OK - finally some data. I don't have time to parse this out, but I will try to get to it. Knowing it's source, there is a good chance they've managed to find a way to twist the statistics to tell the story they want to tell - but I'll check it out when I get a chance.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  3. #73
    tWebber seer's Avatar
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    Interesting...

    New York Democrat Sen. Chuck Schumer tweeted a message of support for Trump’s tough stance on trade with China this week, telling the president to “hang tough.” He reiterated those comments in D.C. on Tuesday, saying China has stolen "trillions" of dollars from the U.S. and there should be no rush for the Trump administration to sign an agreement.

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...omething-china

    Tom Friedman explains why he agrees with Trump's China trade approach

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/05/1...-approach.html
    Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

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