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Thread: Australian gunman goes on shooting spree

  1. #31
    tWebber tabibito's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adrift View Post
    Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/us/politics/las-vegas-shooting-gun-claims-fact-check.html


    A widely shared chart showing that more guns mean fewer gun murders gives a misleading impression.

    In response to calls for more gun control and fewer guns, some have pointed to a chart published by the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank in Washington, to argue that more guns donít necessarily translate to more gun homicides.

    The point that more permissive gun laws did not lead to a huge spike in gun violence has merits, said Adam Winkler, a Second Amendment expert at the University of California, Los Angeles. But the chart itself, he said, ďis a bunch of hokey.Ē

    The chartís data on the spike in the number of firearms and the decline in the homicides by firearms are accurate. But there is no proof that these two trends are connected. Crime, whether or not committed with guns, has generally declined over the past two decades. Experts arenít entirely sure why but do say the drop was influenced by a host of economic, racial and demographic factors.

    ďNot a single criminal justice researcher out there looks at the gun homicide rate solely as a function of the number of private firearms,Ē said Mr. Winkler.

    A few other statistics quickly puncture the chartís suggested conclusion.

    The number of firearms in the United States has steadily increased over the past two decades. It rose to 310 million in 2009, up from 259 million in 2000 and 192 million in 1994.

    Gun homicides, meanwhile, fell dramatically from a 1993 peak of a rate of 7.02 per 100,000 people; by 1999, it was at 3.82 per 100,000 people. But the homicide rate has remained steady since then, suggesting the correlation between the number of guns and number of gun killings does not hold past the turn of the millennium.

    At the same time, the number of mass shootings has also spiked dramatically.

    © Copyright Original Source

    There was a rather curious statistical anomaly that got some publicity here a few decades back and demonstrated the sometimes lack of cause and effect when it comes to statistics.
    For some years, the number of car accidents in Melbourne, Australia (I think it was Melbourne anyway) rose and fell in keeping with the water levels in the Boulder Dam, Colorado (?)
    1 Cor 15:34 εκνηψατε δικαιως και μη αμαρτανετε αγνωσιαν γαρ θεου τινες εχουσιν προς εντροπην υμιν λεγω

  2. #32
    What's that? lilpixieofterror's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    Not deaths in mass shootings, which is the topic of the thread. My point was based on the increase in frequency and the subsequent publicity afforded mass shootings.

    That and that the stats show they are rising again, overall.

    https://www.latimes.com/science/scie...109-story.html

    The study looks at the trend for the decade from 2006 to 2016.

    Jim
    Shoot up a place and you become famous, do you have evidence that isnít the primary motivation?
    "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
    GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

  3. #33
    tWebber Adrift's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    How about Jim Carrey starring in a movie based on a violent comic book series and then refusing to endorse it afterwards because -- shock! horror! -- the movie was violent!
    While it was a strange move on Jim Carrey's part, he's not what i would consider your average Hollywood liberal. That's not to say he doesn't have some very liberal ideas, he certainly does, but he's kinda out there. If you saw his recent Andy Kaufman documentary, or any documentaries on the art that he's doing now, you get the sense that this is a guy who is tired of Hollywood, and has found money and fame fleeting and not at all life-fulfilling. He comes off as someone who is very lost, but also constantly looking towards Christ's work on the cross for hope. I think changing his mind on something that he later regretted doing is fine. I find his honesty, even if it's misguided and weird refreshing. You don't see that often in Hollywood.

  4. Amen KingsGambit amen'd this post.
  5. #34
    What's that? lilpixieofterror's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adrift View Post
    The CDC says they're apparently on the rise again.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gun-dea...rs-of-decline/
    Any why do you suppose that is? Shoot up a place, instant media fame.
    "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
    GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

  6. #35
    tWebber Adrift's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    I agree. One other factor I've noticed is that along with desensitization (numbing) the entertainment association with violence can create an association with exhilaration (a net positive feedback) rather than horror when witnessing or hearing of such actions. Again not in everyone, or even most people. But more than without it, which increases the probability of it having a negative influence on us as a population.

    Jim
    You can only fill your head with so much negativity before it starts impacting you somehow. You may not go on a shooting rampage, but you're bound to feel the effects of it mentally somehow. Humans are not geared to take in that sort of stimuli without some sort of reaction.

  7. Amen DesertBerean amen'd this post.
  8. #36
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    Nhttps://www.latimes.com/science/scie...109-story.html

    The study looks at the trend for the decade from 2006 to 2016.
    Extend the timeline out another 30-years into the 1980s and you find that it's a statistical flatline. However, there has been an increase in the average number of causalities over the past decade (although that appears to be due to two sharp spikes in the graph, so it's not even a steady increase).

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...esearch-215678
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  9. #37
    42nd Mojave Year DesertBerean's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adrift View Post
    While it was a strange move on Jim Carrey's part, he's not what i would consider your average Hollywood liberal. That's not to say he doesn't have some very liberal ideas, he certainly does, but he's kinda out there. If you saw his recent Andy Kaufman documentary, or any documentaries on the art that he's doing now, you get the sense that this is a guy who is tired of Hollywood, and has found money and fame fleeting and not at all life-fulfilling. He comes off as someone who is very lost, but also constantly looking towards Christ's work on the cross for hope. I think changing his mind on something that he later regretted doing is fine. I find his honesty, even if it's misguided and weird refreshing. You don't see that often in Hollywood.
    I agree. I don't care for most of his movies ... Liar Liar and Truman Show are the only ones I appreciated... and I sense the same thing about him that you expressed so well.

  10. Amen Adrift amen'd this post.
  11. #38
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adrift View Post
    Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/us/politics/las-vegas-shooting-gun-claims-fact-check.html


    A widely shared chart showing that more guns mean fewer gun murders gives a misleading impression.

    In response to calls for more gun control and fewer guns, some have pointed to a chart published by the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank in Washington, to argue that more guns donít necessarily translate to more gun homicides.

    The point that more permissive gun laws did not lead to a huge spike in gun violence has merits, said Adam Winkler, a Second Amendment expert at the University of California, Los Angeles. But the chart itself, he said, ďis a bunch of hokey.Ē

    The chartís data on the spike in the number of firearms and the decline in the homicides by firearms are accurate. But there is no proof that these two trends are connected. Crime, whether or not committed with guns, has generally declined over the past two decades. Experts arenít entirely sure why but do say the drop was influenced by a host of economic, racial and demographic factors.

    ďNot a single criminal justice researcher out there looks at the gun homicide rate solely as a function of the number of private firearms,Ē said Mr. Winkler.

    A few other statistics quickly puncture the chartís suggested conclusion.

    The number of firearms in the United States has steadily increased over the past two decades. It rose to 310 million in 2009, up from 259 million in 2000 and 192 million in 1994.

    Gun homicides, meanwhile, fell dramatically from a 1993 peak of a rate of 7.02 per 100,000 people; by 1999, it was at 3.82 per 100,000 people. But the homicide rate has remained steady since then, suggesting the correlation between the number of guns and number of gun killings does not hold past the turn of the millennium.

    At the same time, the number of mass shootings has also spiked dramatically.

    © Copyright Original Source

    All that just to agree with the fact that gun homicides fell dramatically while the number of firearms in private hands has jumped. And while it may be fair to argue that "there is no proof that these two trends are connected" it should be note that 'more guns = more gun violence' is pretty much a given on the anti-2A side, so you only have yourselves to blame when someone looks at the veracity of such a premise.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" -- starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)

  12. #39
    tWebber Chrawnus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    It's obviously Trump's fault.
    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    I never mentioned the name - can we have a conversation that does not go there?

    Jim
    It seems like oxmixmudd has petarded you on your own hoistings, fossil man.


  13. #40
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    Shoot up a place and you become famous, do you have evidence that isnít the primary motivation?
    So ... It's not the fault of the lax gun laws, it's not the easy availability of very powerful multishot weapons to those with potential issues, nor is it the fault of a culture that entertains in the most graphic violence and sex at every venue, but rather it's the fault of the new media that reports the events when they happen?

    hmm ... so if we just stop talking about it when it happens it will go away?

    Somehow I think looking at how to reduce access to powerful weapons rates a bit higher on the rung of potential mitigations against the problem, though any real solution has to get at what is producing people that are so distraught and so bitter that they can imagine taking out as many people as possible is their preferred last act on this earth.


    Jim
    He will reply, ĎTruly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

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