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Ocasio-Cortez gets new 2020 challenger

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  • #16
    Originally posted by One Bad Pig View Post
    Good luck to her, but it'll be quite an uphill battle.
    Maybe, maybe not. AOC can't primary a Republican - and even the bluest districts will vote out a rep they really don't like. Honestly, her issues will be in the primary - she may escape redistricting but she's managed to annoy her entire party plus most of her constituents.

    It's too early to tell - but I wouldn't be surprised if her seat went red.
    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

    "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Sparko View Post
      that's the same sentiment the country had about Trump.
      The entire country's borders weren't gerrymandered.
      "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

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      • #18
        Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
        Nothing to see here. The Democrats could nominate the corpse of Ted Bundy and a Republican isn't winning that district.
        Yeah, funny thing - Republicans literally could not get elected dog catcher in Alabama when I was a kid. The party is in trouble and it's having major issues with a disaffected center. If the folks like her enough, they might just vote red in order to send a message - that, and the only thing that stays absolute in politics is politicking.
        "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

        "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

        My Personal Blog

        My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
          Yeah, funny thing - Republicans literally could not get elected dog catcher in Alabama when I was a kid. The party is in trouble and it's having major issues with a disaffected center. If the folks like her enough, they might just vote red in order to send a message - that, and the only thing that stays absolute in politics is politicking.
          But you generally see that sort of change in more homogenous districts first, not in poor parts of NYC.
          "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

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          • #20
            My only issue is with saying this candidate actually has any chance to win. Her candidacy is very smart from a tactical perspective. In 2018, there was one district in Illinois that was so reliably blue that the Republicans didn't bother putting anybody up. An open Nazi supporter filed and ended up on the ballot with an R next to his name. The party didn't endorse him at all but it was still an embarrassment that made national news. Imagine how much news it would make if this happened in a race with the most talked about Representative in the country. Making sure you have somebody legitimate on the ballot early is smart.
            "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

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            • #21
              Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
              The entire country's borders weren't gerrymandered.
              Yeah, another kinda funny thing - some of the way-too-early-to-trust polling is leaning toward the Republicans retaking the House. Much more of the 'lookie how insanely leftist we can go' stuff and this could easily happen.

              "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

              "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

              My Personal Blog

              My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

              Quill Sword

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              • #22
                Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
                But you generally see that sort of change in more homogenous districts first, not in poor parts of NYC.
                True - to a point. They are (WAY TOO EARLY) predicting a higher than average white turnout nationwide. The Dems haven't got anything running that's likely to excite the base - and 'hate Trump' only goes so far. A suppressed turnout in a poor district can have a big impact - speaking generally.

                It's way too early to tell. Yes, there are hints and indications but an election is a long slog, not a sprint.
                "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                My Personal Blog

                My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                  Yeah, another kinda funny thing - some of the way-too-early-to-trust polling is leaning toward the Republicans retaking the House. Much more of the 'lookie how insanely leftist we can go' stuff and this could easily happen.

                  Fair enough. But the idea that NY-14 is in play this election is honestly delusional.

                  (And high white turnout isn't much of an issue in this district, which is 18% white.)
                  "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
                    Fair enough. But the idea that NY-14 is in play this election is honestly delusional.

                    (And high white turnout isn't much of an issue in this district, which is 18% white.)

                    It's still way too early - normally, I'd agree that it would be a tough district to turn, but there's a LOT in play this year. I wouldn't bet on anything this early, not even the usually 'sure' things.
                    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                    "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                    My Personal Blog

                    My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                    Quill Sword

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                      Yeah, funny thing - Republicans literally could not get elected dog catcher in Alabama when I was a kid.
                      The days of the Yellow Dog Democrats

                      I'm always still in trouble again

                      "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                      "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                      "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                        The days of the Yellow Dog Democrats
                        Yuppers.
                        "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                        "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                        My Personal Blog

                        My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                        Quill Sword

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
                          Nothing to see here. The Democrats could nominate the corpse of Ted Bundy and a Republican isn't winning that district.
                          I think a Republican could win it... but it'd have to be a Republican liberal enough that they could pass for a conservative Democrat. I don't really know Scherie Murray's political positions so I don't know if she qualifies as such.

                          But even if Murray (or another prospective candidate) does fit that description, we run into the problem that multiple people are trying to get the Republican nomination. Since the primary is held by the party itself, going really liberal (by Republican standards) is likely to make you lose, so you'll probably end up with someone the Republicans are satisfied with but has no chance in the actual election due to how liberal the district is.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Terraceth View Post
                            I think a Republican could win it... but it'd have to be a Republican liberal enough that they could pass for a conservative Democrat. I don't really know Scherie Murray's political positions so I don't know if she qualifies as such.

                            But even if Murray (or another prospective candidate) does fit that description, we run into the problem that multiple people are trying to get the Republican nomination. Since the primary is held by the party itself, going really liberal (by Republican standards) is likely to make you lose, so you end up with someone the Republicans are satisfied with but has no chance in the actual election due to how liberal the district is.
                            I don't disagree - it's still much too early to call any race.
                            "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                            "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                            My Personal Blog

                            My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                            Quill Sword

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                            • #29
                              This is interesting. It seems that Scherie Murray was an avid supporter of Cortez in 2018. And now she suddenly presents herself as a Republican challenger? Hmmmm!

                              https://theconservativetreehouse.com...s-familiarity/
                              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                              Than a fool in the eyes of God


                              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                                This is interesting. It seems that Scherie Murray was an avid supporter of Cortez in 2018. And now she suddenly presents herself as a Republican challenger? Hmmmm!

                                https://theconservativetreehouse.com...s-familiarity/
                                yup - interesting --- we'll have to keep an eye on that.
                                The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

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