Mass Shooting - Dayton Ohio

[Roy]

Your source itself mentions 165 shootings. That seems to be in line with MM's chart.

It is in line with MM's chart. But MM's chart doesn't include any data since 2016, rendering it useless for finding out whether there has been an increase in the last ten years.

More specifically, the WP data shows 8 mass shootings in each of 2017 and 2018 (and 5 already in 2019), more than happened at the peaks in MM's chart at 1991, 1993, 1999 or 2012, and comparable even if population increase is factored in. I don't have time right now to create a chart based on the WP data and US population data, but I think based on a couple of quick calculations that it would show all of the last three years being comparable to the isolated highest individual years before then, pushing the 5-year average to the 2.0 line and demonstrating a definite increase.*


*I would say an undeniable increase, but some people will deny anything.

[Sparko]

There's quite a leap from enticing someone to buy a new widget, and convincing a mentally healthy person to commit cold blooded murder. Like I said, if violent media was capable of influencing people to that degree then we should be the most violent generation in history.

But again, there is not a single reputable study that has definitively linked violent video games to violent behavior.

This is purely anecdotal, of course, but I've been playing violent video games of one form or another for close to four-decades. I've watched countless violent movies and television shows. And yet I'm not a violent person, I avoid conflict, and when I see someone get hurt in real life, I cringe, feel badly for them, and do what I can to help them. This, I think, is typical for a mentally healthy person. We are capable of distinguishing between fantasy violence in entertainment, and real violence.

You keep trying to move the goal posts.

1. Nobody is saying it affects "mentally healthy" persons and convinces them to commit murder.
2. Nobody is saying video games are the only cause of violence or that it causes violence directly.

I said (as did teal) that there are studies (I linked to them - which you probably just ignored) that show that playing violent games and watching violence on TV/Movies can desensitize people to violence. That means they are no longer shocked by it, or sickened by it - it becomes normalized. And violence in video games and in movies has gotten a lot more graphic and realistic over the years. Back in the 60's when someone got shot, like in a western, you would see a puff of smoke and they would clutch their heart and keel over. Now you would see their heads explode with brains flying all over the place. Same in video games. The graphics have gotten a lot more realistic and violent over the years. And games like Grand Theft Auto, actually encourage things like violence against others, stealing, cops are the bad guys, etc.


And if someone is mentally UNSTABLE it can be one of many factors that causes them to act out in violence.

[Roy]

Are you seriously making such an absurd argument? It goes to causality - which will be a factor in either increase or decrease. Also, it may be a direct factor - worsening an issue may well be in play.

Bad, bad science.

Why is it absurd?

Please explain how something that changed more than 50 years ago can be a direct factor influencing the behaviour of people who had not been born.

[Sparko]

It is in line with MM's chart. But MM's chart doesn't include any data since 2016, rendering it useless for finding out whether there has been an increase in the last ten years.

um 2016 is only 3 years ago, not 10, and your source was not much higher than MM's chart, in which there are years that were much higher.

[Mountain Man]

You keep trying to move the goal posts.

1. Nobody is saying it affects "mentally healthy" persons and convinces them to commit murder.
2. Nobody is saying video games are the only cause of violence or that it causes violence directly.

I said (as did teal) that there are studies (I linked to them - which you probably just ignored) that show that playing violent games and watching violence on TV/Movies can desensitize people to violence. That means they are no longer shocked by it, or sickened by it - it becomes normalized. And violence in video games and in movies has gotten a lot more graphic and realistic over the years. Back in the 60's when someone got shot, like in a western, you would see a puff of smoke and they would clutch their heart and keel over. Now you would see their heads explode with brains flying all over the place. Same in video games. The graphics have gotten a lot more realistic and violent over the years. And games like Grand Theft Auto, actually encourage things like violence against others, stealing, cops are the bad guys, etc.


And if someone is mentally UNSTABLE it can be one of many factors that causes them to act out in violence.

And if they're mentally unstable then even that old fashioned Western with the puff of smoke could inspire them to commit violent acts. Or a heavy metal song. Or a book. Or nothing at all, really.

I keep hearing about how exposure to violent media "desentizies" people, but I'm not convinced of it. I play violent video games, and I know people who play them, and yet we still find real violence horrifying.

[Charles]

um 2016 is only 3 years ago, not 10, and your source was not much higher than MM's chart, in which there are years that were much higher.

He wants to know "whether there has been an increase in the last ten years." You do realize you cannot stop 3 years ago if you want to know what happened the last ten years, right?

[Teallaura]

That source does not include any data beyond 2016. Educate yourself.

Two problems - you yourself specified the last decade - and three years does not a decade make. AND you just used a WP hit piece as DATA! Yeah - NO!

Crime stats are usually compiled via the FBI - and they aren't usually 'up to date' - because they CAN'T be. Some crimes are so specifically defined that you really do have to finish out the investigative process just to define which one it was (mass shooting versus gang shooting, for example).

So, what DO we have? Well, there's 2017. And preliminaries for 2018. And... that's it. So basically, your complaint is that MM's source is missing one year of available data. Do you actually think one year is a trend, even if 2017 supported an increase?

Someone needs an education all right. But MM wouldn't be the choice based on this performance.

<Begin only somewhat serious rant>
I am seriously beginning to entertain the idea that anyone involved in the physical sciences - or just interested in them - should be barred from the public square! They think they know what they are doing with the social sciences when in fact, they are the most clueless people on Earth!
<end only somewhat serious rant>

<begin real rant>
I'm actually PRO-gun control - but I end up spending more time trying to get my side to QUIT MAKING SPECIOUS ARGUMENTS!!!!!!
</end real rant>

[Teallaura]

Since I'm fight-picking, the nuclear family and prayer in schools are very different things.

I just don't think there is a connection between school prayer removal and mass shootings. Other countries (except maybe Canada) don't have the same issue.

The obvious factor that differentiates the US from other "Western" countries that don't have so many mass shootings is the accessibility of guns.

As a former potential mass shooter (no, I'm NOT kidding), I think you're completely off base here.

[Teallaura]

I always ask the question cui bono when I see a study like that? I'd be interested to know who funded the study. I searched for it but couldn't find it, though I'm not used to looking at research docs like that, so I don't really know where to look. Since we know studies have been corporate funded in the past (i.e. tobacco industries), and since we know such a study clearly benefits the video game industry, it would be an important bit of info to know to rule out any potential bias.

Btw, this is coming from a gamer that is currently playing GTA5.

Better question - why is it worded causally? That's actually the BIG red flag - any decent social scientist would have known better. Media influences behavior - that's well documented; it is not usually causally linked to behavior (when it is, it's imitation, usually young males - and this has been deadly in the past). What they should be looking for is does media play a role in the decreased inhibitions we see in modern violence.

[Teallaura]

There's quite a leap from enticing someone to buy a new widget, and convincing a mentally healthy person to commit cold blooded murder. Like I said, if violent media was capable of influencing people to that degree then we should be the most violent generation in history.

But again, there is not a single reputable study that has definitively linked violent video games to violent behavior.

This is purely anecdotal, of course, but I've been playing violent video games of one form or another for close to four-decades. I've watched countless violent movies and television shows. And yet I'm not a violent person, I avoid conflict, and when I see someone get hurt in real life, I cringe, feel badly for them, and do what I can to help them. This, I think, is typical for a mentally healthy person. We are capable of distinguishing between fantasy violence in entertainment, and real violence.

Yeah, I already caught this with Sean - causal relationships are not at issue - influence is. By linking it to causality, you're making a specious argument.

Anecdotally, the military has noticed a very definite shift. In WWI and WWII, one of the hardest things to get recruits to do was to get them to shoot at a human figure. Bull's eye targets they'd shoot at all day - but they started having trouble once the target resembled a human at all. Why? Although they had grown up handling guns in many cases, they had also grown up with strict rules about shooting anywhere near people.

But by the Iran/Iraq war, this had reversed itself. Recruits were perfectly willing to shoot at human forms - they had grown up doing so in video games.

[Teallaura]

It is in line with MM's chart. But MM's chart doesn't include any data since 2016, rendering it useless for finding out whether there has been an increase in the last ten years.

More specifically, the WP data shows 8 mass shootings in each of 2017 and 2018 (and 5 already in 2019), more than happened at the peaks in MM's chart at 1991, 1993, 1999 or 2012, and comparable even if population increase is factored in. I don't have time right now to create a chart based on the WP data and US population data, but I think based on a couple of quick calculations that it would show all of the last three years being comparable to the isolated highest individual years before then, pushing the 5-year average to the 2.0 line and demonstrating a definite increase.*


*I would say an undeniable increase, but some people will deny anything.

Because there is only one more year of reliable data available - 2017. 2018 is only preliminary and 2019 doesn't exist. You can't cull it from news reports without mucking up the definitions - which is almost certainly what WP did. Mass shootings are differentiated from gang shootings - although they have very similar profiles. So, if we only count shootings with high casualty rates, we get both mass and gang mixed indiscriminately.

FYI: To actually make your case, you want gang shootings, not mass shootings. Mass shootings are fairly rare - gang shootings are fairly constant.



And stop helping! I'd like to see some meaningful gun control measures at the Federal level in my life time - and having to apologize for bad arguments from my side does not help!

[Teallaura]

Why is it absurd?

Please explain how something that changed more than 50 years ago can be a direct factor influencing the behaviour of people who had not been born.

Failure to inoculate. Guns were far more prevalent in American culture - and ownership - fifty years ago, yet mass shootings were extremely rare. The obvious change is culture - from one that didn't have people shooting everyone in sight when they got mad to one where that actually happens.

Again, it's bad science to presume all your factors are in your vial.

[Teallaura]

And if they're mentally unstable then even that old fashioned Western with the puff of smoke could inspire them to commit violent acts. Or a heavy metal song. Or a book. Or nothing at all, really.

I keep hearing about how exposure to violent media "desentizies" people, but I'm not convinced of it. I play violent video games, and I know people who play them, and yet we still find real violence horrifying.

What brand of shoes do you buy?

Seriously, this is the worst argument possible against media as a potential problem - I didn't become psychotic therefore someone who is so predisposed won't have a problem either?

[Sparko]

And if they're mentally unstable then even that old fashioned Western with the puff of smoke could inspire them to commit violent acts. Or a heavy metal song. Or a book. Or nothing at all, really.

I keep hearing about how exposure to violent media "desentizies" people, but I'm not convinced of it. I play violent video games, and I know people who play them, and yet we still find real violence horrifying.

Judging by the way you talk about mass shootings, I would say you are indeed desensitized.


But regardless, the fact that there are things in our modern society that contribute to causing people who are on the edge to go over that edge is not something to be dismissed. It is a real factor in why we are seeing such things today where we didn't 50 years ago. Also factors like what CP mentioned: the weakening of the family unit. There are many factors, and none can be pointed to as THE cause, but they all add up to be causes. It is a cumulative thing, and different people are affected by different things.

You may not be affected by watching TV or playing video games, but you are also a mature adult. And when you were a kid, those same games and tv shows were not nearly as violent as they are today. So children, who are easily influenced and affected by not only violence in games and media but by their peers at school and on social media can reach a breaking point. We never had to deal with 24/7 bullying like kids do today. We might get picked on by a few bullies at school, but today, kids are being bullied and shamed on social media platforms that everyone can see and it doesn't go away and can't be ignored. Peer pressure like that can drive a poor immature kid to do things they would not normally do.

[Teallaura]

He wants to know "whether there has been an increase in the last ten years." You do realize you cannot stop 3 years ago if you want to know what happened the last ten years, right?

The FBI only has data through 2017 - only ONE year is missing. And ONE year is NOT a TREND!!!!!

The WP pulled stats from somewhere - but the most reliable crime data is from the FBI and they did NOT get it there.