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Thread: Global Climate change 2019

  1. #61
    tWebber TheLurch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    Even if we eliminate petroleum as a fuel, it is still has a LOT of uses: lubricants, plastics, asphalt, paint, and more. Not all are putting CO2 into the atmosphere. I don't think oil companies are going to disappear if we stop using fossil fuels.
    No, but they would lose about 75% of their current business.

    EDIT: to be more clear - the oil companies are just one facet of this. We haven't priced in sea level rise to our housing market. We haven't priced in rising temperatures in our wine growing regions. We haven't priced in drought into major agricultural regions like California. I suspect we're going to keep doing a "we must rebuild!" until we either get exhausted by it or run out of the money to do it.

    I admit to being pessimistic about this, but humanity's given me good reason to be a pessimist, i'm afraid.
    Last edited by TheLurch; 09-06-2019 at 08:56 AM.
    "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

  2. Amen shunyadragon amen'd this post.
  3. #62
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    The 20019 UN Climatethe global warming increase change reports came to the same conclusion I have expressed in recent years. The UN did the math and concluded that we cannot stop global warming, but we should continue with efforts to reduce Global Warming causes. See here: https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science.shtml

    We cannot stop the effects in terms of rising sea level and we cannot stand in front of the train and stop it, but the UN reports proposed we prepare to take advantage of changing climate in their Economic Report. The economic report focusing on developing strategies adapt to the changing climate.

    [cite=https://newclimateeconomy.report/]

    Map of action

    Investigate factors that affect economy and climate from an interactive regional perspective, filtering various impacts.

    We are entering a new era of economic growth. This approach can deliver growth that is strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive. It is driven by the interaction between rapid technological innovation, sustainable infrastructure investment, and increased resource productivity.

    Source: cite=https://newclimateeconomy.report/


    At the heart of this new approach to growth are liveable, compact cities which have an economic dynamism that can attract creative talent, companies, and capital while higher densities enable cheaper service delivery and avoid costly urban sprawl. Powering the new growth will be affordable, clean, energy systems and can expand energy access to the more than a billion people that currently lack it, replicating and amplifying the impact of mobile telephony on equitable growth. Agriculture and forests can become a third engine of economic growth, delivering greater food security, more nutritious food, greater rural prosperity and more equitable growth, strengthened resilience, and valuable ecosystem services. Industrial sectors, now waking up to the potential of the circular economy, will radically cut the demand for energy-intensive primary materials, driving up both material productivity and cutting waste.

    This new growth approach will deliver higher productivity, more resilient economies and greater social inclusion. The poorest do not benefit from the current low-productivity agriculture nor from landslides resulting from deforestation. They do not benefit from inefficient cities where daily commutes often take hours a day, exposed to highly-polluted air. The poor are those most exposed to the impacts of climate change, with just one bad weather season having the potential to push low-income families below the poverty line.
    This new approach is the only economic growth path that is sustainable. It is the growth story of the 21st century.
    This new growth approach will deliver higher productivity, more resilient economies and greater social inclusion.

    In 2014, the flagship report of the Global Commission on Economy and Climate conclusively showed that higher quality growth can be combined with strong climate action.

    The evidence today of the potential economic benefits are even greater than before; and the downside risks of inaction on climate change are even more stark.
    Leading companies and investors are already getting behind this new approach, creating a new competitive race. So too are ambitious policy-makers.
    The decisions we take over the next 2-3 years are crucial because of the urgency of a changing climate and the unique window of unprecedented structural changes already underway. The world is expected to invest about US$90 trillion on infrastructure in the period up to 2030, more than the entire current stock today. Much of this investment will be programmed in the next few years.

    This is our ‘use it or lose it’ moment. Investing the US$90 trillion to build the right infrastructure now will deliver a new era of economic growth. Investing it wisely will help drive innovation, deliver public health benefits, create a host of new jobs and go a long way to tackling the risks of runaway climate change. Getting it wrong, on the other hand, will lock us into a high-polluting, low productivity, and deeply unequal future. For example, the multi-trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative will have a significant impact on the shape and sustainability of growth in the over 70 countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe it spans.

    This is our ‘use it or lose it’ moment: the decisions we take over the next 2-3 years will determine our growth and climate future.

    The core proposition of the Global Commission is simple. We can build a better, more people-centred, more resilient growth model by accelerating structural transformation in five key economic systems:

    Clean energy systems: The decarbonisation of power systems combined with decentralised and digitally-enabled electrification technologies can provide access to modern energy services for the billion people who currently lack it; strengthen energy security and reduce exposure to energy price volatility globally; build overall system resilience to increasing natural hazards (especially in vulnerable, small island states); and cut the costs of outdoor air pollution worldwide. The clean energy transition is well underway, driven by market forces and plummeting costs of renewable and storage technologies. The world now adds more renewable power capacity annually than from all fossil fuels combined.1

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    .
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  4. #63
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    On the surface Antarctic has escaped the effects of Global warming, because of the Antarctic Circumpolar Currents, but the Antarctic is experiencing the effects of Global Warming from warmer currents eroding the ice from below.

    [cite=https://www.livescience.com/antarctica-ice-shelf-upside-down-rivers.html]

    'Upside-Down Rivers' of Warm Water Are Carving Antarctica to Pieces

    Earth's frozen places are losing ground fast. In Antarctica, melted ice spills into the ocean at rate of about 155 billion tons (140 billion metric tons) per year — an amount so confoundingly huge that it's easier just to call it "chilling" and "unprecedented," as a recent U.N. report did. Those numbers will only increase as humans continue polluting the air with record amounts of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

    On the frontlines of this warm-weather siege are the world's ice shelves. Perched all around the edges of Antarctica and Greenland, ice shelves help stem the tide of melting glaciers by growing outward over the ocean like thick balconies of frost. Nearly 600,000 square miles (1.5 million square kilometers) of ice shelves surround Antarctica alone, through which 80% of the continent's melting ice passes. However, a new study suggests, those dams of ice may have a fatal flaw in the face of Earth's increasingly warming oceans.

    In a study published yesterday (Oct. 9) in the journal Science Advances, researchers used satellite imagery to look at Antarctica's shear margins — fragile areas near the edges of ice shelves where huge cracks tend to spread — and found a troubling pattern. Certain cracks seemed to emerge in the same spots year after year, often stretching clear across the tips of their ice shelves and carving huge chunks into the sea. These cracks were often accompanied by long, sagging troughs and large holes in the ice — suggesting that some natural force under the shelves is causing the same regions to buckle and break every year.
    Last edited by shunyadragon; 10-14-2019 at 06:03 AM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  5. #64
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Source: https://phys.org/news/2019-11-coastlines-contribution-climate-underestimated.html



    Coastlines' contribution to climate change might have been underestimated

    by Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres

    Shoreline retreat and erosion along Arctic coasts (Qikiqtaruk-Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada) rapidly mobilize organic carbon from permafrost deposits, which can be transformed quickly into carbon dioxide or methane. Credit: G. Tanski, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    Permafrost coasts make up about one third of the Earth's total coastline. As a result of accelerated climate change, whole sections of coastline rapidly thaw, and erode into the Arctic Ocean. A new study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters now shows that large amounts of carbon dioxide are potentially being produced along these eroding permafrost coastlines in the Arctic.

    "Carbon budgets and climate simulations have so far missed coastal erosion in their equations even though it might be a substantial source of carbon dioxide," says George Tanski of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, lead author of the study. "Our research found that the erosion of permafrost coastlines can lead to the rapid release of significant quantities of CO2, which can be expected to increase as coastal erosion accelerates, temperatures increase, sea ice diminishes, and stronger storms batter Arctic coasts."

    The study was carried out during Tanski's time at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), and the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences. Co-Authors come from AWI, GFZ, and the Universities of Hamburg and Potsdam. The study is part of the Nunataryuk research project, coordinated by AWI. The project aims to analyse permafrost thaw, understand its impacts on indigenous communities and other populations, and develop mitigation and adaptation strategies.

    For the new study, the researchers simulated the effects of erosion in a lab experiment. To find out how much carbon is released into the atmosphere along eroding Arctic permafrost coasts, they collected permafrost samples from Qikiqtaruk (also known as Herschel Island) off the northern coast of the Yukon in northwest Canada, and seawater from offshore. They mixed permafrost and seawater samples and then measured the greenhouse gases emitted over the course of four months, the average length of open-water season in the Arctic.

    The researchers found that CO2 was released as rapidly from thawing permafrost in seawater as it is from thawing permafrost on land. Previous research had documented that thawing permafrost on land causes significant releases of greenhouse gases. This new research indicates that eroding permafrost coasts and nearshore waters are also a potentially notable source of CO2 emissions. It draws into question carbon budgets that have identified the coastal zone mainly as a point of passage for carbon from land to sea, neglecting possible carbon transport into the atmosphere.

    © Copyright Original Source

    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  6. #65
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Explanation of the slight dip in global temperatures in the last century:

    Source: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/50-years-ago-scientists-puzzled-over-slight-global-cooling?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=latest-newsletter-v2&utm_source=Latest_Headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest_Headlines



    50 years ago, scientists puzzled over a slight global cooling
    Sulfate pollution turned out to be the culprit

    The average temperature for the entire Earth rose gradually from the 1880s until the early 1940s. At that time, a cooling trend suddenly set in which is continuing today.… The amount of dust and other particulate matter in the atmosphere has increased dramatically in recent decades, a change that could counteract the thermal effect of carbon dioxide buildup.

    Update
    From 1940 to about 1975, the average global surface temperature decreased by about 0.1 degrees Celsius, interrupting a decades-long warming trend even as carbon emissions continued to rise. Many scientists thought the cooling trend was possibly caused by sulfate particles from the burning of fossil fuels that can scatter sunlight and reduce atmospheric warming (SN: 11/21/09, p. 5). That hunch proved correct: When the United States and other countries began to lower sulfur emissions in the 1970s to reduce acid rain and respiratory illnesses, the cooling ended abruptly. Since 1975, the average global temperature has risen by about 0.6 degrees C.

    Today, the average surface temperature is 1.1 degrees C warmer than it was in pre-industrial times (SN: 9/25/19). However, ongoing sulfate emissions, particularly from China and India, may still be slowing greenhouse gas-driven warming. Removing all aerosol emissions from the world at once could add about 0.7 degrees C to global temperatures.

    © Copyright Original Source

    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  7. #66
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Research documents loss of river ice due to global warming.

    Source: https://phys.org/news/2020-01-global-extent-river-ice-loss.html



    New study estimates the global extent of river ice loss as Earth warms

    by University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

    More than half of Earth's rivers freeze over every year. These frozen rivers support important transportation networks for communities and industries located at high latitudes. Ice cover also regulates the amount of greenhouse gasses released from rivers into Earth's atmosphere.

    A new study from researchers in the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Department of Geological Sciences found that annual river ice cover will decline by about six days for every one degree Celsius increase in global temperatures. This decline will have economic and environmental consequences. The study, "The past and future of global river ice," was published Jan. 1 in the journal Nature. It is the first study to look at the future of river ice on a global scale.

    "We used more than 400,000 satellite images taken over 34 years to measure which rivers seasonally freeze over worldwide, which is about 56% of all large rivers," said Xiao Yang, a postdoctoral scholar in the UNC-Chapel Hill geological sciences department and lead author on the paper. "We detected widespread declines in monthly river ice coverage. And the predicted trend of future ice loss is likely to lead to economic challenges for people and industries along these rivers, and shifting seasonal patterns in greenhouse gas emissions from the ice-affected rivers."

    The team also looked at changes to river ice cover in the past and modeled predicted changes for the future. Comparing river ice cover from 2008-2018 and 1984-1994, the team found a monthly global decline ranging from .3 to 4.3 percentage points. The greatest declines were found in the Tibetan Plateau, eastern Europe and Alaska.

    "The observed decline in river ice is likely to continue with predicted global warming," the study explains.

    For the future, the team compared expected river ice cover through 2009-2029 and 2080-2100. Findings showed monthly declines in the Northern Hemisphere ranging from 9-15% in the winter months and 12-68% during the spring and fall. The Rocky Mountains, northeastern United States, eastern Europe and Tibetan Plateau are expected to take the heaviest impact.

    "Ultimately, what this study shows is the power of combining massive amounts of satellite imagery with climate models to help better project how our planet will change," said UNC-Chapel Hill Associate Professor of global hydrology Tamlin Pavelsky.

    © Copyright Original Source



    Following in the near future when available the world temperature records for 2019, which will be among the warmest on record.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  8. #67
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Data is coming in for 2019.

    Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2019/01/31/so-far-2019-has-set-33-hottest-and-0-coldest-temperature-records/#f8acf5a505e9



    So Far 2019 Has Set 33 Hottest And 0 Coldest Temperature Records

    Trevor Nace Senior Contributor
    Science

    As the continental United States endures bitterly cold conditions you may find it surprising that 2019 has tallied a total of 33 hottest temperatures ever recorded and 0 coldest temperatures ever recorded.

    There's no doubt that much of North America is experiencing colder than average temperatures, in some instances more than 50°F colder than average. However, the polar vortex has yet to officially claim a coldest temperature on record.

    If you look toward the southern hemisphere, particularly in Australia you will notice that the country has experienced a true record-setting summer.

    Maximiliano Herrera, who runs what has been called "the most influential weather website in the world," has spent decades and nearly $1 million to track temperature extremes around the globe at unprecedented accuracy. The simple website, http://www.mherrera.org/temp.htm, has the reputation its precise weather data.

    As much of the United States experiences extremely cold temperatures, one might think this disproves global warming. However, climate change and a warming planet are found to be responsible for the recent polar vortex.

    Today In: Innovation
    Forbes astrophysicist, Ethan Siegel summarizes the new normal:

    As the Earth continues to warm, extreme weather events like this will become commonplace, with many climatologists predicting an unstable polar vortex bringing storms like this to us multiple times per decade. Welcome to the new normal, courtesy of global warming, where the Arctic can't even remain cold in the dead of winter.

    © Copyright Original Source

    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  9. #68
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    I had a wonderful Christmas with 70F weather.

  10. #69
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    In the Piedmont this year has no winter, good fig and garlic crop for me, but bad news summer crops.The Bermuda highs are strong and arctic highs are weak. We may have a nasty spring.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  11. #70
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    First, the strong winter Bermuda highs do bring early toronadoes to the Midwest.

    More news of the impact of Global Warming:
    Source: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/16/hot-blob-ocean-seabirds-killed-new-zealand-north-america



    Huge ‘hot blob’ in Pacific Ocean killed nearly a million seabirds

    Thousands of bodies washed up on North America’s Pacific coast
    Study finds common murres probably died of starvation
    Kenya Evelyn in New York

    @LiveFromKenya
    Thu 16 Jan 2020 18.38 ESTFirst published on Thu 16 Jan 2020 13.12 EST
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    FILE - In this Jan. 7, 2016 file photo, dead common murres lie washed up on a rocky beach in Whittier, Alaska. In August 2018, federal wildlife officials are asking Alaska coastal communities to report dead and dying seabirds that have appear along beaches since May. Hundreds of thousands of common murres, a fast-flying seabird, died from starvation four winters ago in the North Pacific, and a new research paper attempts to explain why. (AP Photo/Mark Thiessen, File)
    Dead common murres lie washed up on a rocky beach in Whittier, Alaska, on 7 January 2016. Photograph: Mark Thiessen/AP
    A million seabirds died in less than a year as a result of a giant “blob” of hot ocean, according to new research.

    A study released by the University of Washington found the birds, called common murres, probably died of starvation between the summer of 2015 and the spring of 2016.

    Most dead seabirds never wash ashore, so while 62,000 dead or dying murres were found along the coasts of Alaska, Washington, Oregon and California, researchers estimate the total number is closer to 1 million.

    Alaska saw the most birds wash up. In Prince William Sound in southern Alaska, more than 4,500 bird carcasses were found every kilometer, or 0.62 miles.

    The blob stems from a years-long severe marine heatwave, believed to be caused by an anticyclone weather system that first appeared in 2013. A weather phenomenon known as El Nińo accelerated the warming temperatures beginning in 2015 and, by 2016, the rising heat resulted in water temperatures nearly 11F (6C) above average.

    Anticyclones form when a mass of air cools, contracts and becomes more dense, increasing the weight of the atmosphere and the surface air pressure.

    Heat maps at the time showed a massive red blob growing, spanning more than 380,000 sq miles (1 million sq km). That’s nearly 1.5 times the size of Texas or four times larger than New Zealand.

    The study found that the murres mostly likely starved to death. The seabird must eat half its body weight to survive, but food grew scarce amid intense competition from other creatures. Warming ocean waters gave fish such as salmon and halibut a metabolism boost, causing a fight for survival over the limited supply of smaller fish.

    Researchers also uncovered other effects, including a massive bloom of harmful algae along the US west coast that cost fisheries millions of dollars in revenue. Other animals also died off, including sea lions, tufted puffins and baleen whales.


    “Think of it as a run on the grocery stores at the same time that the delivery trucks to the stores stopped coming so often,” Julia Parrish, a co-author of the study and UW professor in the School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, said in a press release.

    The murres’ population also took a hit. According to the study, a limited food supply resulted in reduced breeding colonies across the entire region. Between the 2015 and 2016 breeding seasons, more than 15 colonies did not produce a single chick. Researchers say those estimates could be low since they only monitor a quarter of all colonies.


    Ocean temperatures hit record high as rate of heating accelerates
    Read more
    The seabird has not replenished in numbers after the mass die-off.

    “The magnitude and scale of this failure has no precedent,” said John Piatt, the lead researcher. “It was astonishing and alarming, and a red-flag warning about the tremendous impact sustained ocean warming can have on the marine ecosystem.”

    Researchers cannot determine how long it would take for the population to rebound – or if it ever will.

    “In light of predicted global warming trends and the associated likelihood of more frequent heatwaves”, the study concluded, this could be a stark warning about the impending effects of the climate crisis.

    Meanwhile, another huge heat blob has formed off the Washington coast and up into the Gulf of Alaska, and is growing.

    This article was amended on 16 January 2020. An earlier version incorrectly identified the location of the heat blob as off the coast of New Zealand. It is located in the north Pacific
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    © Copyright Original Source

    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

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