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Thread: Global Climate change 2019

  1. #11
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    You can't even get your links right.

    https://www.space.com/20112-oldest-k...-universe.html

    Strange 'Methuselah' Star Looks Older Than the Universe




    The "pasture fires" comment was an aside and not the point.

    The point of the article is that the press is trying to make it sounds like a dire emergency that the Amazon rain forest is burning down and "record number of fires" when the truth is that the Amazon fires over all are LOWER than normal, and that these fires are a yearly occurrence.

    "The Sky is Falling!"
    Sorry for the error. Personal remarks and sarcasm based on a bias against Global warming are not meaningful. The main issue was the global trend of temperatures and fires.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  2. #12
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLurch View Post
    For full context, NASA tracks global temperatures relative to the period 1951-1980, so after some considerable warming had already taken place. They do show that the last time temperatures were below the '51-'80 average was a July. July of 1985. That means its now been 34 years since the last time we've had a month that was below the typical temperature of when i grew up (I was born in the mid-60s). And nobody under 35 has ever experienced such a month.
    I was born in '46 and experienced colder winters in the 50's
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  3. #13
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teallaura View Post
    The sudden 'lookie, there was no hiatus' thing - which seems to be where Shuny's article comes from but won't state it clearly enough.

    To be honest, I'm pretty much done with this. But that may be because I'm feeling rough today.

    On second thought - I'll come back to this when I feel better and reread the thing.

    If you come back cite references accurately and completely.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  4. #14
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    More specific complete records up to the present in 2019:

    Source: https://www.axios.com/temperature-records-set-in-2019-512a1109-99ae-45aa-8953-781ff955c91d.html



    All the global temperature records broken in 2019, so far

    Data: NASA GISS; Graphic: Harry Stevens/Axios
    The world's top 5 warmest years on record have occurred since 2014 — and it's almost certain that 2019 will be added to this list as well.

    Why it matters: Such trends are indicative of long-term global warming due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels for energy and transportation, cutting down forests for agriculture and other purposes. Only 1 of the top 20 warmest years on record since instrument data began in 1880 took place before the year 2000. With greenhouse gas concentrations in the air at their highest level in 3 million years, the odds favor more record-shattering years in the future.

    Many countries have been setting new milestones for monthly record warmth, as is the world at large. Here are some of 2019's noteworthy temperature records:

    Monthly rankings
    Monthly temperature records are based on estimates from a number of different organizations, including NOAA and NASA.

    January: Third-warmest January, per NOAA
    February: Fifth-warmest February, per NOAA
    March: Third-warmest March
    NOAA and Europe's Copernicus Climate Service ranked March as the 2nd-warmest on record, while NASA and the Japan Meteorological Agency ranked the month slightly lower as the 3rd-warmest March on record.
    April: Second-warmest April
    April saw a global temperature anomaly of 0.99ºC, or 1.8ºF, above the 20th century average, per NASA.
    July: Passed August 2016 at the hottest-ever month on record by 0.14ºF, according to the NOAA and Europe's Copernicus Climate Service.
    National records
    Aside from global trends, some individual continents and countries are setting records of their own. Here are a few national records that have been broken this year, some of which still need to be verified in order to officially enter the record books:

    Angola saw its hottest temperature ever measured for any month in February.
    Australia shattered its record for the hottest summer ever, propelling its national average temperature to a new all-time high.
    January had an average temperature that was 5.2°F (2.91°C) above the 1961–1990 average — the first time any month has topped 86°F (30°C), nationally.
    Belgium broke its all-time record at 40.6°C (105°F) on July 25.
    France saw its hottest June day on June 26 with an average high of 94.8°F (34.8°C).
    France also broke its all-time record of 44.1°C (111.4°F) on June 28 as the temperature rose to 44.3°C (111.7°F) in Carpentras.
    Germany broke its record of 41.5°C (106.7°F) on July 25, according to the German Weather Service, and reported by DPA News.
    Kenya saw its highest April temperature on April 20 in Mandera, which hit 41.6ºC (106.88ºF).
    The Netherlands broke its all-time record on July 25 at 4o.4°C (104.7°F).
    Poland and Germany each set a new respective June temperature record.
    Russia set its hottest May temperature on record in Yelabuga at 32.9ºC (91.22ºF) on May 13.
    Vietnam broke its record for hottest May temperature on May 20 at 42.8ºC (109.04ºF) in Con Cuông.

    © Copyright Original Source

    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  5. #15
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    The whole "Amazon is Burning" news is mostly just scare tactics.

    The Amazon burns every year. And they are only counting the Brazillian fires and claiming it is "record numbers" while ignoring that overall, the fires in the Amazon are at normal or below normal numbers for the year.

    ======================


    Short summary: we have had wild fires for many years now in the Amazon, even in the tropical rainforest - mainly started by humans for forest clearing and ranching. It is not enough to impact significantly on the Paris agreement pledges yet, though it is important in the long term if this continues for decades. This image is being shared even in usually reputable media with captions such as National Geographic's "The Amazon is burning at record rates - and deforestation is to blame". Similarly, the BBC is reporting it as a “record”.

    'Record number of fires' in Brazilian rainforest

    But is it? You would not guess from these headlines that NASA's description for the original photo says that it is burning at less than average rates. Bit of a big difference there. They mention this in the details of the stories but a fair bit down the page.


    The image shows smoke from fires in the Amazon region on 13th August 2019. These are not necessarily all forest fires. Some of these will be fires in pasture to stimulate new growth for the cattle.


    Attachment 39242
    https://www.science20.com/robert_wal...d_rates-240959
    The reference did refer to two issues: (1) The hottest recorded July on record. (2) The increase in fires world wide. Yes the fires in the Amazon were forest and pasture fires, but nonetheless these annual human set fires are a long term issue concerning global warming, but the main issue is the world wide high temperatures in 2019, which was better documented in the later reference.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  6. #16
    tWebber TheLurch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teallaura View Post
    The sudden 'lookie, there was no hiatus' thing - which seems to be where Shuny's article comes from but won't state it clearly enough.
    Ok, data is from here:
    Screen Shot 2019-08-26 at 9.49.46 AM.jpg
    If you didn't look at the years below, could you spot the hiatus?

    If your answer is no, then your eyeballs are as good as the statistics, which indicate there was no statistically significant slowdown in warming in the early 2000s.

    But, if you know the dates, you can see that there was a relatively slow period in the early 2000s, and similar periods around 1980 and 1990. And it's worth looking at these in more detail, because they can tell us something about what drives short-term variability in climate. In the case of the early 2000s, it was clearly driven by an extended run of La Niñas.

    All that said, the people who were prone to doubt climate change made a big deal about the "hiatus" at the time, because it looked like it justified their beliefs. And some scientists tried to respond to that by figuring out why there was a period of slower warming. And other said "it's clearly La Niña, don't waste your time on this". So, it was a bit controversial at the time, including within the scientific community. Bit ironic considering it's largely been forgotten since.
    "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

  7. #17
    tWebber Teallaura's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLurch View Post
    Ok, data is from here:
    Screen Shot 2019-08-26 at 9.49.46 AM.jpg
    If you didn't look at the years below, could you spot the hiatus?

    If your answer is no, then your eyeballs are as good as the statistics, which indicate there was no statistically significant slowdown in warming in the early 2000s.

    But, if you know the dates, you can see that there was a relatively slow period in the early 2000s, and similar periods around 1980 and 1990. And it's worth looking at these in more detail, because they can tell us something about what drives short-term variability in climate. In the case of the early 2000s, it was clearly driven by an extended run of La Niñas.

    All that said, the people who were prone to doubt climate change made a big deal about the "hiatus" at the time, because it looked like it justified their beliefs. And some scientists tried to respond to that by figuring out why there was a period of slower warming. And other said "it's clearly La Niña, don't waste your time on this". So, it was a bit controversial at the time, including within the scientific community. Bit ironic considering it's largely been forgotten since.
    Yep - why do you assume I can't read a simple chart? I grant it takes a hard look - but that's why you used a chart that contains decades we aren't discussing.

    How I would interpret it - that I would say is a slower progression (based on the chart you presented - which is disingenuous - if you're really looking for small variants, you don't use a chart too broad to show them). I wasn't born yesterday and I do know better than look at a long term chart when I want to know what happened in a particular period. From the chart presented, just glancing since this isn't a good way to do this, it would seem that there have been multiple changes in the rate of progression.

    But this wasn't how the pause was treated just a few years ago.

    Global warming pause 'central' to IPCC Report

    So, miraculously a problem scientists weren't sure about simply never existed - meaning they got it wrong for at least ten years. And we should trust that the 'new' adjustment fixes everything and all is right with the world and...

    Seriously, this looks like hand waving. It's this kind of thing that makes me increasingly skeptical.

  8. #18
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    He who controls the data controls the narrative.

  9. Amen Teallaura, Mountain Man amen'd this post.
  10. #19
    tWebber TheLurch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Teallaura View Post
    Yep - why do you assume I can't read a simple chart? I grant it takes a hard look - but that's why you used a chart that contains decades we aren't discussing..
    Considering the chart goes up to 2020, i'm not sure what decades you think i'm skipping. Maybe you could explain that one.

    Quote Originally Posted by Teallaura View Post
    I wasn't born yesterday and I do know better than look at a long term chart when I want to know what happened in a particular period. From the chart presented, just glancing since this isn't a good way to do this, it would seem that there have been multiple changes in the rate of progression.
    That's why i included a link back to the original source, so you could look in more detail if you wanted. If you'd rather have the underlying data, it's here:
    https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/t...LB.Ts+dSST.txt

    I'm not trying to pull one over on you, and i resent the implication that i am.

    Quote Originally Posted by Teallaura View Post
    But this wasn't how the pause was treated just a few years ago.

    Global warming pause 'central' to IPCC Report

    So, miraculously a problem scientists weren't sure about simply never existed - meaning they got it wrong for at least ten years. And we should trust that the 'new' adjustment fixes everything and all is right with the world and...
    I wasn't born yesterday, which is why i read the link you are sending me to, which clearly says:
    "Many governments are demanding a clearer explanation of the slowdown in temperature increases since 1998."
    Not scientists, governments.

    As for the scientists, it's exactly as i said:
    "many arguing that the Earth has continued to warm but that the heat has gone into oceans." That's via the repeated La Niña, which i mentioned.

    Quote Originally Posted by Teallaura View Post
    Seriously, this looks like hand waving. It's this kind of thing that makes me increasingly skeptical.
    But not skeptical enough to read your own link carefully?
    "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

  11. #20
    tWebber TheLurch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    He who controls the data controls the narrative.
    Who do you think controls this data, and how do they exert their control?
    "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

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