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‘Global Temperature’ — Why Should We Trust A Statistic That Might Not Even Exist?

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  • Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
    It turns out that being environmentally virtuous conserves my money.
    Sweet!

    Effect climate policy will, in the end, be driven by economics, both by making bad behavior more expensive and making good behavior less so. (Don't tell Joel. He gets kinda riled when anybody suggests Keynesian economics works.)
    That's not Keyensianism. That's neoclassical "welfare economics". And a Pigouvian version of it, which I don't think has been generally accepted by economists since Coase. Even Pigou himself came to doubt the practical value of Pigouvian intervention.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Joel View Post
      Averages (especially weighted averages) involve scaling. Does that call into question the meaningfulness of averaging diverse data-points in a non-linear system?
      A model of the Earth that is averaged, as if everything has been through a blender, is the simplest and fastest running model that can be made. Starting there, you would want to construct gradually more realistic models that mimic real ocean and air currents while still running fairly quickly. Cost, fidelity and speed need to be optimised. Any model of the Earth apart from itself involves loss of detail. That is the cost of doing predictive science.
      “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
      “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
      “not all there” - you know who you are

      Comment


      • Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
        A model of the Earth that is averaged, as if everything has been through a blender, is the simplest and fastest running model that can be made. Starting there, you would want to construct gradually more realistic models that mimic real ocean and air currents while still running fairly quickly. Cost, fidelity and speed need to be optimised. Any model of the Earth apart from itself involves loss of detail. That is the cost of doing predictive science.
        And that is itself an issue - weighting is to be avoided as much as possible because it introduces bias (not intentional) in the selection. The weakness of the mean is how easily it is skewed - but the assumption that outliers can be correctly discarded introduces bias. With income, this is no problem - we know Bill Gates and unemployed people both exist and we aren't looking at them for that metric. But how do the outliers affect climate? Can they be safely discarded? Can we say yes authoritatively when we do not fully understand the system?

        Treating a complex system like a milk shake does not induce confidence in the result - nor should it. Sooner or later the result stops reflecting reality - if it reflected reality to begin with. That is what we saw in the 2016 election - human statistics run into the nasty tendency of humans to do whatever they want to instead of what we predicted.

        But predictions based on a mean of a complex system? With weighted data? Maybe, with a fully understood system like a car engine - but climate isn't fully understood. And even if they can't do it intentionally, there's always that one variable that acts like it has a mind of its own...
        Last edited by Teallaura; 08-29-2019, 05:12 PM.
        "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

        "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

        My Personal Blog

        My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

        Quill Sword

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        • Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
          There is no better source than the IPCC...


          You mean the same IPCC that has been repeatedly caught fudging the "science" in order to sell its political agenda?

          IPCC Researchers Admit Global Warming Fraud
          Climategate: The Smoking Code
          The IPCC's Latest Report Deliberately Excludes And Misrepresents Important Climate Science
          NOAA, IPCC Fudge, Ignore Data to Hype Climate Alarm
          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
          Than a fool in the eyes of God


          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
            Science from scientists, and partisanship from partisan hacks.

            Quelle surprise.

            Why do you believe these guys, again?

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
              And that is itself an issue - weighting is to be avoided as much as possible because it introduces bias (not intentional) in the selection. The weakness of the mean is how easily it is skewed - but the assumption that outliers can be correctly discarded introduces bias. With income, this is no problem - we know Bill Gates and unemployed people both exist and we aren't looking at them for that metric. But how do the outliers affect climate? Can they be safely discarded? Can we say yes authoritatively when we do not fully understand the system?

              Treating a complex system like a milk shake does not induce confidence in the result - nor should it. Sooner or later the result stops reflecting reality - if it reflected reality to begin with. That is what we saw in the 2016 election - human statistics run into the nasty tendency of humans to do whatever they want to instead of what we predicted.

              But predictions based on a mean of a complex system? With weighted data? Maybe, with a fully understood system like a car engine - but climate isn't fully understood. And even if they can't do it intentionally, there's always that one variable that acts like it has a mind of its own...
              Teal, please stop butchering math.

              You're ... hurting ... me.

              Can't you just go back to being cute?

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
                Teal, please stop butchering math.

                You're ... hurting ... me.

                Can't you just go back to being cute?
                I am ALWAYS cute!

                Since when is the mean NOT vulnerable to skew? You were the one arguing exactly that with Sparky. Weighting is an imperfect process - and it's best to just assume some bias because human. That's also not an actual issue.

                Using the mean across categories? Bad statistics.

                I asked why the mean should be considered a valid metric for a complex system that literally spans the planet - I get 'we made a milkshake'.
                "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                My Personal Blog

                My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                Quill Sword

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                  I am ALWAYS cute!

                  Since when is the mean NOT vulnerable to skew? You were the one arguing exactly that with Sparky. Weighting is an imperfect process - and it's best to just assume some bias because human. That's also not an actual issue.

                  Using the mean across categories? Bad statistics.

                  I asked why the mean should be considered a valid metric for a complex system that literally spans the planet - I get 'we made a milkshake'.
                  STOP ... I'll tell you everything, where the bodies are, who stole the bacon, who shot JR! ... just, for the love of all that's holy ... have mercy ... Vogon poets are taking notes here.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
                    STOP ... I'll tell you everything, where the bodies are, who stole the bacon, who shot JR! ... just, for the love of all that's holy ... have mercy ... Vogon poets are taking notes here.
                    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                    "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                    My Personal Blog

                    My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                    Quill Sword

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                      And that is itself an issue - weighting is to be avoided as much as possible because it introduces bias (not intentional) in the selection. The weakness of the mean is how easily it is skewed - but the assumption that outliers can be correctly discarded introduces bias. With income, this is no problem - we know Bill Gates and unemployed people both exist and we aren't looking at them for that metric. But how do the outliers affect climate? Can they be safely discarded? Can we say yes authoritatively when we do not fully understand the system?

                      Treating a complex system like a milk shake does not induce confidence in the result - nor should it. Sooner or later the result stops reflecting reality - if it reflected reality to begin with. That is what we saw in the 2016 election - human statistics run into the nasty tendency of humans to do whatever they want to instead of what we predicted.

                      But predictions based on a mean of a complex system? With weighted data? Maybe, with a fully understood system like a car engine - but climate isn't fully understood. And even if they can't do it intentionally, there's always that one variable that acts like it has a mind of its own...
                      I would expect data measured from the real complex system would need to be processed to match the model.
                      “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
                      “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
                      “not all there” - you know who you are

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Juvenal View Post
                        Science from scientists, and partisanship from partisan hacks.

                        Quelle surprise.

                        Why do you believe these guys, again?
                        Are your suggesting that I should be swayed by your genetic fallacy instead?
                        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                        Than a fool in the eyes of God


                        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
                          I would expect data measured from the real complex system would need to be processed to match the model.
                          Fair. Why would the mean be that metric?
                          "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                          "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                          My Personal Blog

                          My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                          Quill Sword

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                            Are your suggesting that I should be swayed by your genetic fallacy instead?
                            No, no, you're supposed to admit you're wrong because he said so - without proving it.
                            "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                            "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                            My Personal Blog

                            My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                            Quill Sword

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                              No, no, you're supposed to admit you're wrong because he said so - without proving it.
                              Good, we're back to English comprehension. I didn't accuse him of being wrong.

                              Go check.

                              Comment


                              • Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                                But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                                Than a fool in the eyes of God


                                From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                                Comment

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