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Thread: Why NC-9 Should Frighten the Democrats

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Why NC-9 Should Frighten the Democrats

    Why NC-9 Should Frighten the Democrats


    Last week the Democrats were touting the special election in North Carolina’s 9th District as the first major contest of the 2020 cycle, and the polls indicated that Democrat Dan McCready might win what should be a pretty safe GOP seat. By Wednesday morning, after Republican Dan Bishop had won, their focus had shifted and much commentary was devoted to his “thin margin of victory.” Little notice was taken of certain voting patterns that should frighten the Democrats. Specifically, McCready did far worse than expected in every county but one, and many of those counties are dominated by minority voters.

    The most unnerving example, from the Democratic perspective, is rural Robeson County. The ethnic makeup of this county is as follows: Native American (38.6%), White (25.7%), Black (24%), Hispanic (8.52%), Two or More Races (2.15%), Asian (0.66%), Other (0.275%). On Tuesday the Democrat received a fraction of the votes he received in 2018, running for the same seat. Ryan Matsumoto of Inside Elections provides the gory details: “McCready won Robeson County by only 1.11 points, a MASSIVE decrease from his 15.31 point margin last November.” In 2012, Obama carried Robeson by 17 points.

    This is a county of about 143,000, and 74 percent of these folks are clearly not the racist rednecks the Democrats would have us believe make up most of the Trump/GOP base. The shift away from McCready was the result of disenchantment among minority voters with the Democrat. Moreover, though Robeson was the most obvious, it was by no means the only ethnically diverse county whose voters “walked away.” Nearly 60 percent of Cumberland County’s approximately 333,000 residents are Black, Hispanic, or a member of some other minority group. McCready won it in 2018. Dan Bishop won Cumberland on Tuesday.

    Much the same scenario was played out in every county except the affluent white areas of Mecklenburg County, the only place where the Democrat improved on his 2018 performance. Bishop only flipped two new counties from blue to red, but he turned several from dark blue to pale blue, reducing McCready’s margins in enough ethnically diverse rural counties to win. So, what’s going on here? The answer will be obvious to all but the willfully blind. Despite consistent attempts by the Democrats to frighten minorities with evidence-free claims that the economy is faltering, no one is buying that tale.....
    Every problem is the result of a previous solution.

  2. Amen Teallaura amen'd this post.
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    Professor KingsGambit's Avatar
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    The NC Republicans deserved to lose for their 9/11 memorial service stunt alone. Ugh.
    "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingsGambit View Post
    The NC Republicans deserved to lose for their 9/11 memorial service stunt alone. Ugh.
    Oh? Missed that. Was it in the article I scanned?
    Every problem is the result of a previous solution.

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    tWebber seer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingsGambit View Post
    The NC Republicans deserved to lose for their 9/11 memorial service stunt alone. Ugh.
    What was that?
    Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Oh? Missed that. Was it in the article I scanned?
    Nope, just a local controversy.

    The Republicans in the state legislature waited until most of the Democrats were at a 9/11 memorial service to sneak overturn the governor's veto of the budget (after promising they wouldn't pursue any legislation). I'm furious.
    "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingsGambit View Post
    Nope, just a local controversy.

    The Republicans in the state legislature waited until most of the Democrats were at a 9/11 memorial service to sneak overturn the governor's veto of the budget (after promising they wouldn't pursue any legislation). I'm furious.
    Ah - yeah, understandably so.
    Every problem is the result of a previous solution.

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    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Back to the subject at hand... I'm hearing the left pumped in a lot of money from out of state to win this race -- many times more than what the Republicans spent. Anyone got any details?

    I've also heard that the Democrat was up by something like 17 points according to the polls something like a week before the election.

    I'm always still in trouble again

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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    Back to the subject at hand... I'm hearing the left pumped in a lot of money from out of state to win this race -- many times more than what the Republicans spent. Anyone got any details?

    I've also heard that the Democrat was up by something like 17 points according to the polls something like a week before the election.
    I just heard it on the radio - 8 million for the Dem, not even half of that for the Pub. Who knows... I think Trump's rally helped though...
    Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    Back to the subject at hand... I'm hearing the left pumped in a lot of money from out of state to win this race -- many times more than what the Republicans spent. Anyone got any details?

    I've also heard that the Democrat was up by something like 17 points according to the polls something like a week before the election.
    Here are some quick numbers by https://www.issueone.org/outside-mon...he-nc-09-race/.

    • $20.3 million: The amount that candidates, outside groups, and political parties have invested so far in this election. Of that, $8.1 million was controlled by the candidates, $7.8 million was spent by outside groups, including super PACs and dark money groups, and $4.3 million was spent by the NRCC and the DCCC.
    • 100%: The percentage of spending by the party committees that was negative.
    • 100%: The percentage of dark money in this race that supports Democrat Dan McCready, with four liberal dark money groups spending a combined $1.6 million.
    • 29: The number of outside groups — including super PACs, political action committees, and dark money groups — active in this race. The top-spending group — the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC, which supported Republican Dan Bishop — alone spent $2.3 million, accounting for about 30% of all spending by outside groups in the race.
    • 2.6-to-1: The ratio of campaign cash raised by Democrat Dan McCready ($5.4 million) versus Republican Dan Bishop ($2.1 million).
    • 2.5-to-1: The ratio of money spent on ads by the NRCC ($3.1 million) versus money spent on ads by the DCCC ($1.2 million).
    • 1.4-to-1: The ratio of money spent by other outside groups supporting Republican Dan Bishop ($3.9 million) versus money spent by other liberal outside groups supporting Dan McCready ($2.7 million).

    Every problem is the result of a previous solution.

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    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Here are some quick numbers by https://www.issueone.org/outside-mon...he-nc-09-race/.

    • $20.3 million: The amount that candidates, outside groups, and political parties have invested so far in this election. Of that, $8.1 million was controlled by the candidates, $7.8 million was spent by outside groups, including super PACs and dark money groups, and $4.3 million was spent by the NRCC and the DCCC.
    • 100%: The percentage of spending by the party committees that was negative.
    • 100%: The percentage of dark money in this race that supports Democrat Dan McCready, with four liberal dark money groups spending a combined $1.6 million.
    • 29: The number of outside groups — including super PACs, political action committees, and dark money groups — active in this race. The top-spending group — the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC, which supported Republican Dan Bishop — alone spent $2.3 million, accounting for about 30% of all spending by outside groups in the race.
    • 2.6-to-1: The ratio of campaign cash raised by Democrat Dan McCready ($5.4 million) versus Republican Dan Bishop ($2.1 million).
    • 2.5-to-1: The ratio of money spent on ads by the NRCC ($3.1 million) versus money spent on ads by the DCCC ($1.2 million).
    • 1.4-to-1: The ratio of money spent by other outside groups supporting Republican Dan Bishop ($3.9 million) versus money spent by other liberal outside groups supporting Dan McCready ($2.7 million).

    From this it looks like the same amount was spent by both sides.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" -- starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)

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