Originally posted by Sam
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Originally posted by Sam View PostNot to belabor my point about shared reality but it's a poll from a reputable pollster. It's "true" because that's how the survey respondents answered the pollster's question.
--Sam"The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy
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Originally posted by Sam View PostNot to belabor my point about shared reality but it's a poll from a reputable pollster. It's "true" because that's how the survey respondents answered the pollster's question.
--SamSome may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View PostWere these the same pollsters that were telling us Hillary was going to be president?
National polling aggregate, Nov. 2-7, 2016: Clinton +3.2
Final Results, November 8, 2016: Clinton +2.1
I suppose we can shave off a point or two on this poll without fear of angering the MoE gods.
--Sam"I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostIt's true that's what the poll says. It's not necessarily true that this is an accurate representation of peoples opinions.
--Sam"I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"
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Originally posted by Sam View PostWhat (reputable) polls do, of course, is provide people with a more accurate representation of peoples' opinions than other methods.
--SamSome may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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Originally posted by Mountain Man View PostNot really. Polls by their nature are limited in what they can ask, how they can ask it, and how they can present the responses, and quite often, any kind of middle ground and nuance is lost in the process, especially when it's a complex issue.
We spent a whole go-around in 2012 with the poll unskewing thing. That was ridiculous and exhausting but at least it was arguing over what reality is, with the understanding that we can know some things and empirical methods and disciplines help us know things better.
Now? Now it's just gone: if a poll or set of polls is unfavorable to a person, party, ideology, or even a point of view it's just ... poof. Can't know things.
--Sam"I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"
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Originally posted by Sam View PostShared reality update:
National polling aggregate, Nov. 2-7, 2016: Clinton +3.2
Final Results, November 8, 2016: Clinton +2.1
I suppose we can shave off a point or two on this poll without fear of angering the MoE gods.
--Sam"The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy
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Your implication was that polls are untrustworthy because they "told us Clinton would win". Aggregated polls didn't tell us that -- they told us that Clinton's spread was +3.2 (and trending downward toward Election Day). In 2016, the polls were just as good, if not better, at reflecting the national popular vote than previous presidential election years (which is what national polls do), being off only 1.1%.
You're the one talking about polls and winning because you misunderstand what the polls are saying. It would be useful to learn the nature of polling and understand what polls are saying before criticizing or disregarding them.
--Sam"I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"
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Heck, FiveThirtyEight's Election Day prediction had Clinton with a 71% chance of winning. A whole lot of people took that to mean 100% and hopefully learned their lesson good and hard."I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"
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Originally posted by Sam View PostYour implication was that polls are untrustworthy because they "told us Clinton would win". Aggregated polls didn't tell us that -- they told us that Clinton's spread was +3.2 (and trending downward toward Election Day). In 2016, the polls were just as good, if not better, at reflecting the national popular vote than previous presidential election years (which is what national polls do), being off only 1.1%.
You're the one talking about polls and winning because you misunderstand what the polls are saying. It would be useful to learn the nature of polling and understand what polls are saying before criticizing or disregarding them.
--Sam"The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy
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Poll results* don't "project" electoral college results.
Orgs like FiveThirtyEight do ... and I didn't leave it out. 71% chance on Election Day.
--Sam
*National poll results"I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"
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Originally posted by Sam View PostPoll results* don't "project" electoral college results.
Orgs like FiveThirtyEight do ... and I didn't leave it out. 71% chance on Election Day.
--Sam
*National poll results"The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy
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Originally posted by Sam View PostHeck, FiveThirtyEight's Election Day prediction had Clinton with a 71% chance of winning. A whole lot of people took that to mean 100% and hopefully learned their lesson good and hard.Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
Than a fool in the eyes of God
From "Fools Gold" by Petra
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It would be fair of me to chalk this up to innumeracy but, in reality, it's just the same thing I mentioned above.
You understand that a 30% chance of winning something means that you'll actually win sometimes (on average, about 1 out of every 3 times, really). You're not innumerate.
It's just that the actual facts get in the way of the point you tried to make. So ... poof. Gone.
--Sam"I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"
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