Originally posted by Sam
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"The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy
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Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View PostAnd how does one test this out, on an event you can only repeat once?
If an asteroid's trajectory indicates a 5% chance of hitting Earth and it hits Earth, that doesn't mean the math was wrong. It means that reality landed inside that 5% probability.
--Sam"I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"
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Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View PostIE people who agree with Sam. Thanks for proving Teals, Max, MM, and my point.
And the problem of respect has nothing to do with the quality of sams posts. It is that those reading no longer have the capacity to recognize objectivity or scholarship if the opinion expressed is not their own.
JimMy brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by Sam View PostBecause it's math.
If an asteroid's trajectory indicates a 5% chance of hitting Earth and it hits Earth, that doesn't mean the math was wrong. It means that reality landed inside that 5% probability.
--Sam"The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy
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Originally posted by Sam View PostBecause it's math.
If an asteroid's trajectory indicates a 5% chance of hitting Earth and it hits Earth, that doesn't mean the math was wrong. It means that reality landed inside that 5% probability.
--SamThe first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View PostI like how you pretend that predicting the path of asteroids is the same as predicting a presidential election. Asteroids are not subject to fickle humans, but physical forces that tend to work in predictable ways. The polling data hasn’t done so hot over the past few years.
A) fewer people are keeping landlines, and
2) many of us simply decline to be polled, and
C) there seems to be a trend in people messing with pollsters.The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostReal said no one respects Sam's posts anymore. She was wrong.
And the problem of respect has nothing to do with the quality of sams posts. It is that those reading no longer have the capacity to recognize objectivity or scholarship if the opinion expressed is not their own.
Jim"The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy
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Originally posted by Cow Poke View PostI don't think that's a very good example, because the math could be correct, but based on false assumptions or bad data.
What a person can't do is say something like "The polls predicted Clinton would win and she didn't" as a legitimate criticism when the polls 1) didn't say that and 2) prediction models put out around a 30% chance of her losing.
It's the difference between accepting the fact that reputable polls, and polling in aggregate, are good and useful information and denying the validity of the entire discipline of polling because one or many polls show unfavorable data.
--Sam"I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"
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Originally posted by Cow Poke View PostI don't think that's a very good example, because the math could be correct, but based on false assumptions or bad data."The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy
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Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View PostI like how you pretend that predicting the path of asteroids is the same as predicting a presidential election. Asteroids are not subject to fickle humans, but physical forces that tend to work in predictable ways. The polling data hasn’t done so hot over the past few years.
The final electoral result was D +8.4, a difference of ... 1.1%.
Aggregated polls have been doing just fine the past few years.
--Sam"I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"
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Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View PostAsteroids don’t take a vote in their chosen path. They are guided by the laws of physics. There a reason I can buy a 2020 calendar with the dates of the phases of the moon printed in it.
This makes a whole lot less sense when you realize that polls are showing what people say what they think or plan to do.
--Sam"I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"
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Originally posted by Cow Poke View PostI don't think that's a very good example, because the math could be correct, but based on false assumptions or bad data.
I'm NEVER gonna hear the end of this!!!
You know DARN WELL he's NEVER gonna let me forget this!!!
Sam's correct about how probability works.
The problem with the polling is that multiple different polls got pretty much the same results. THAT is NOT how probability - or polling - work. Part of why we trust weighted results is their consistency - and if they aren't truly representative, they shouldn't be consistent.
So yes, sometimes the result simply falls in the lower estimate (poor weathermen know this only too well). But multiple different polls shouldn't have that happen (it's still possible but far less likely - like flipping heads one hundred times in a row).
"He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot
"Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman
My Personal Blog
My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)
Quill Sword
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Originally posted by Sam View PostIn 2018, the RCP average from Oct. 13 - Nov. 3 was D +7.3.
The final electoral result was D +8.4, a difference of ... 1.1%.
Aggregated polls have been doing just fine the past few years.
--SamLast edited by lilpixieofterror; 10-14-2019, 09:56 PM."The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy
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Originally posted by Sam View PostThis makes a whole lot less sense when you realize that polls are showing what people say what they think or plan to do.
--Sam"He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot
"Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman
My Personal Blog
My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)
Quill Sword
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Originally posted by Teallaura View PostI hate you. And Lil...
I'm NEVER gonna hear the end of this!!!
You know DARN WELL he's NEVER gonna let me forget this!!!
Sam's correct about how probability works.
The problem with the polling is that multiple different polls got pretty much the same results. THAT is NOT how probability - or polling - work. Part of why we trust weighted results is their consistency - and if they aren't truly representative, they shouldn't be consistent.
So yes, sometimes the result simply falls in the lower estimate (poor weathermen know this only too well). But multiple different polls shouldn't have that happen (it's still possible but far less likely - like flipping heads one hundred times in a row).
"The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy
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