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Elizabeth Warren's Pregnant Pause

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  • Originally posted by Sam View Post
    No, I'm pretty sure most Republicans will decide it's bad again when convenient. The polls will undoubtedly revert to the mean as public events dictate.

    --Sam
    Don’t worry, at some point, a Democrat will again be president and you’ll be making excuses for them and all will be well again, in your world.
    "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
    GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Sam View Post
      Not to belabor my point about shared reality but it's a poll from a reputable pollster. It's "true" because that's how the survey respondents answered the pollster's question.

      --Sam
      Were these the same pollsters that were telling us Hillary was going to be president?
      "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
      GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Sam View Post
        Not to belabor my point about shared reality but it's a poll from a reputable pollster. It's "true" because that's how the survey respondents answered the pollster's question.

        --Sam
        It's true that's what the poll says. It's not necessarily true that this is an accurate representation of peoples opinions.
        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
        Than a fool in the eyes of God


        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

        Comment


        • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
          Were these the same pollsters that were telling us Hillary was going to be president?
          Shared reality update:

          National polling aggregate, Nov. 2-7, 2016: Clinton +3.2

          Final Results, November 8, 2016: Clinton +2.1


          I suppose we can shave off a point or two on this poll without fear of angering the MoE gods.

          --Sam
          "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
            It's true that's what the poll says. It's not necessarily true that this is an accurate representation of peoples opinions.
            What (reputable) polls do, of course, is provide people with a more accurate representation of peoples' opinions than other methods.

            --Sam
            "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Sam View Post
              What (reputable) polls do, of course, is provide people with a more accurate representation of peoples' opinions than other methods.

              --Sam
              Not really. Polls by their nature are limited in what they can ask, how they can ask it, and how they can present the responses, and quite often, any kind of middle ground and nuance is lost in the process, especially when it's a complex issue.
              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
              Than a fool in the eyes of God


              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                Not really. Polls by their nature are limited in what they can ask, how they can ask it, and how they can present the responses, and quite often, any kind of middle ground and nuance is lost in the process, especially when it's a complex issue.
                Relating to my hypothesis:

                We spent a whole go-around in 2012 with the poll unskewing thing. That was ridiculous and exhausting but at least it was arguing over what reality is, with the understanding that we can know some things and empirical methods and disciplines help us know things better.

                Now? Now it's just gone: if a poll or set of polls is unfavorable to a person, party, ideology, or even a point of view it's just ... poof. Can't know things.

                --Sam
                "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                  Shared reality update:

                  National polling aggregate, Nov. 2-7, 2016: Clinton +3.2

                  Final Results, November 8, 2016: Clinton +2.1


                  I suppose we can shave off a point or two on this poll without fear of angering the MoE gods.

                  --Sam
                  You sound like the fan of the losing World Series team saying:

                  “My team got more total runs!”

                  When the only number that matters is the team that wins four games first.

                  Running up the voter tally in California isn’t going to win the election.
                  "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                  GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                    You sound like the fan of the losing World Series team saying:

                    “My team got more total runs!”

                    When the only number that matters is the team that wins four games first.

                    Running up the voter tally in California isn’t going to win the election.

                    Your implication was that polls are untrustworthy because they "told us Clinton would win". Aggregated polls didn't tell us that -- they told us that Clinton's spread was +3.2 (and trending downward toward Election Day). In 2016, the polls were just as good, if not better, at reflecting the national popular vote than previous presidential election years (which is what national polls do), being off only 1.1%.

                    You're the one talking about polls and winning because you misunderstand what the polls are saying. It would be useful to learn the nature of polling and understand what polls are saying before criticizing or disregarding them.

                    --Sam
                    "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                    Comment


                    • Heck, FiveThirtyEight's Election Day prediction had Clinton with a 71% chance of winning. A whole lot of people took that to mean 100% and hopefully learned their lesson good and hard.
                      "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                        Your implication was that polls are untrustworthy because they "told us Clinton would win". Aggregated polls didn't tell us that -- they told us that Clinton's spread was +3.2 (and trending downward toward Election Day). In 2016, the polls were just as good, if not better, at reflecting the national popular vote than previous presidential election years (which is what national polls do), being off only 1.1%.

                        You're the one talking about polls and winning because you misunderstand what the polls are saying. It would be useful to learn the nature of polling and understand what polls are saying before criticizing or disregarding them.

                        --Sam
                        You seem to be leaving out the poll results saying that Clinton was projected to win the electoral college too. I can’t imagine why you left that detail out.
                        "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                        GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                          You seem to be leaving out the poll results saying that Clinton was projected to win the electoral college too. I can’t imagine why you left that detail out.
                          Poll results* don't "project" electoral college results.

                          Orgs like FiveThirtyEight do ... and I didn't leave it out. 71% chance on Election Day.

                          --Sam


                          *National poll results
                          "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                            Poll results* don't "project" electoral college results.

                            Orgs like FiveThirtyEight do ... and I didn't leave it out. 71% chance on Election Day.

                            --Sam


                            *National poll results
                            “Butttttttt they projected a 71% chance for Clinton, so they were not wrong!!!”

                            You’re reaching.
                            "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                            GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                              Heck, FiveThirtyEight's Election Day prediction had Clinton with a 71% chance of winning. A whole lot of people took that to mean 100% and hopefully learned their lesson good and hard.
                              What you don't seem to realize is that in reality, Hillary had a 0% chance of winning.
                              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                              Than a fool in the eyes of God


                              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                                “Butttttttt they projected a 71% chance for Clinton, so they were not wrong!!!”

                                You’re reaching.
                                It would be fair of me to chalk this up to innumeracy but, in reality, it's just the same thing I mentioned above.

                                You understand that a 30% chance of winning something means that you'll actually win sometimes (on average, about 1 out of every 3 times, really). You're not innumerate.

                                It's just that the actual facts get in the way of the point you tried to make. So ... poof. Gone.


                                --Sam
                                "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                                Comment

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