Announcement

Collapse

Civics 101 Guidelines

Want to argue about politics? Healthcare reform? Taxes? Governments? You've come to the right place!

Try to keep it civil though. The rules still apply here.
See more
See less

Elizabeth Warren's Pregnant Pause

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
    And if there is something "wrong enough" with the poll results that they need to adjust the model, they don't know that until they are proven wrong by the actual election. There is no way - even the night before the election - to know that the model or assumptions need to be adjusted.

    In the case of tracking an asteroid, the actual asteroid is being observed real time, and the closer it gets the more accurate the prediction of impact becomes. The 'model' and math are much more accurate because there are far fewer uncontrollable variables (people).

    I just think you chose a bad analogy.
    Not always true, for either asteroids or elections. Polling models get adjusted all the time and space trajectory models do not resolve to certainty. So both models often get more accurate with time (part of the reason why early polling is much less accurate than late polling is due to model refinements).

    The analogy isn't exact but it's fine for the purpose it's serving, which is to demonstrate probability vs. certainty.

    --Sam
    "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Sam View Post
      Not always true, for either asteroids or elections. Polling models get adjusted all the time and space trajectory models do not resolve to certainty. So both models often get more accurate with time (part of the reason why early polling is much less accurate than late polling is due to model refinements).

      The analogy isn't exact but it's fine for the purpose it's serving, which is to demonstrate probability vs. certainty.

      --Sam
      Since you're always right, I'll let this go.
      The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
        I don't think that's a very good example, because the math could be correct, but based on false assumptions or bad data.
        But it's math! It can't be wrong!

        (Just like science never lies. )
        Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
        But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
        Than a fool in the eyes of God


        From "Fools Gold" by Petra

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
          But it's math! It can't be wrong!

          (Just like science never lies. )
          Yeah, but with respect to abortion, science sucks!
          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by JimL View Post
            Nixon was a crook who surrounded himself with crooks, and a tax fraud, who commited treason in order to aide in his election bid, I don't think any historian is warming to him.
            Well, you're mistaken. Nixon also won by a landslide and had some incredibly successful FP.

            And while I fully agree he deserved impeachment, he wasn't a traitor - you toss that word around way too lightly.
            "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

            "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

            My Personal Blog

            My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

            Quill Sword

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
              And while I fully agree he deserved impeachment, he wasn't a traitor - you toss that word around way too lightly.
              I'm not sure he even knows what the word means.
              Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
              But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
              Than a fool in the eyes of God


              From "Fools Gold" by Petra

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                Since you're always right, I'll let this go.
                If it makes you feel better, neither of you is really 'right' here. Polling is a statistical study where plotting orbits isn't. The problems in modern polling are in methodology, not math.

                What Sam is avoiding is that numerous polls were indicating something would happen that didn't. The chances that all of them would be so consistently off are tiny, so it's far more probable that there's something wrong with the polls - so much so that pollsters don't really consider the outlier possibility.
                "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                My Personal Blog

                My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                Quill Sword

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                  But it's math! It can't be wrong!

                  (Just like science never lies. )
                  Math is always right. But the wrong math can be used to describe a problem, and models can be incomplete.

                  science is a methodology that if properly followed does not lie. Though the solution it generates is not guaranteed to be correct in the sense of correctly describing the reality it is investigating.

                  People can lie about what is scientifically supported, or they can lie about what they did in their research. But science itself does not 'lie'.



                  Jim
                  Last edited by oxmixmudd; 10-15-2019, 09:29 AM.
                  My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                  If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                  This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                    Well, you're mistaken. Nixon also won by a landslide and had some incredibly successful FP.

                    And while I fully agree he deserved impeachment, he wasn't a traitor - you toss that word around way too lightly.
                    Nixon is largely considered a terrible president because he engaged in a criminal conspiracy to obstruct justice, abusing the power of his office to corrupt ends and violating his constitutional oath in particularly egregious ways.

                    That's not the sort of thing that historians often come around to justifying as the years go by and should have been a warning to folks. Unfortunately, what some people -- including close aides to Trump like Manafort and Stone -- took from Nixon's impeachment was not "don't do that" but "do that better".

                    --Sam
                    "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                      If it makes you feel better, neither of you is really 'right' here. Polling is a statistical study where plotting orbits isn't. The problems in modern polling are in methodology, not math.

                      What Sam is avoiding is that numerous polls were indicating something would happen that didn't. The chances that all of them would be so consistently off are tiny, so it's far more probable that there's something wrong with the polls - so much so that pollsters don't really consider the outlier possibility.
                      I'm afraid this is wrong, for much the same reason LPOT was wrong: what the polls in question were indicating was that Clinton was leading Trump nationally by ~3.2%. That's it -- they were not indicating that Clinton would win the EC. Clinton ended up leading Trump in the national vote by 2.1%; statistically, the polls were solid.

                      You and LPOT are taking an inference from national polling and saying that because that inference didn't happen, the polls were "wrong". This is incorrect and even if we switch over from national polling to Election Day predictions, prediction sites like 538 or PEC or PredicitIt all certainly -did- consider the possibility of a Trump victory and displayed that statistic fairly prominently.

                      --Sam
                      "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                        Jath is always right. But the wrong math can be used to describe a problem, and models can be incomplete.

                        Jim
                        For the sarcastically impaired the following is said in jest



                        As opposed to "figures lie and liars figure*"





                        *the Mark Twain quote is actually "Figures don't lie, but liars figure"
                        The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                          Nixon is largely considered a terrible president because he engaged in a criminal conspiracy to obstruct justice, abusing the power of his office to corrupt ends and violating his constitutional oath in particularly egregious ways.

                          That's not the sort of thing that historians often come around to justifying as the years go by and should have been a warning to folks. Unfortunately, what some people -- including close aides to Trump like Manafort and Stone -- took from Nixon's impeachment was not "don't do that" but "do that better".

                          --Sam
                          Go away. Tired of talking to you when you clearly never actually read all the way through.
                          "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                          "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                          My Personal Blog

                          My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                          Quill Sword

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                            I'm afraid this is wrong, for much the same reason LPOT was wrong: what the polls in question were indicating was that Clinton was leading Trump nationally by ~3.2%. That's it -- they were not indicating that Clinton would win the EC. Clinton ended up leading Trump in the national vote by 2.1%; statistically, the polls were solid.

                            You and LPOT are taking an inference from national polling and saying that because that inference didn't happen, the polls were "wrong". This is incorrect and even if we switch over from national polling to Election Day predictions, prediction sites like 538 or PEC or PredicitIt all certainly -did- consider the possibility of a Trump victory and displayed that statistic fairly prominently.

                            --Sam
                            You wouldn't know survey research from a hole in your head. You're wrong - again. Cherry picked outliers don't prove otherwise.
                            "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                            "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                            My Personal Blog

                            My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                            Quill Sword

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                              You wouldn't know survey research from a hole in your head. You're wrong - again. Cherry picked outliers don't prove otherwise.
                              Just answering the issue you claimed I was avoiding, despite having answered it earlier. Not sure what "cherry picked outliers" refers to when I'm talking about poll aggregates and prediction sites but it's not something to put a great deal of stress into, either.

                              --Sam
                              "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                                Just answering the issue you claimed I was avoiding, despite having answered it earlier. Not sure what "cherry picked outliers" refers to when I'm talking about poll aggregates and prediction sites but it's not something to put a great deal of stress into, either.

                                --Sam
                                To have Teal call those 'outliers' pretty much sums up why you have been unable to communicate your point.

                                Jim
                                My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                                If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                                This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                                Comment

                                Related Threads

                                Collapse

                                Topics Statistics Last Post
                                Started by little_monkey, Yesterday, 04:19 PM
                                6 responses
                                47 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post whag
                                by whag
                                 
                                Started by whag, 03-26-2024, 04:38 PM
                                42 responses
                                231 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post whag
                                by whag
                                 
                                Started by rogue06, 03-26-2024, 11:45 AM
                                24 responses
                                104 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Ronson
                                by Ronson
                                 
                                Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 09:21 AM
                                32 responses
                                176 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Hypatia_Alexandria  
                                Started by Hypatia_Alexandria, 03-26-2024, 08:34 AM
                                73 responses
                                309 views
                                0 likes
                                Last Post Hypatia_Alexandria  
                                Working...
                                X