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Thread: How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong

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    radical strawberry
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    How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong

    Opinion
    How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong
    Few thought it would arrive so quickly. Now we’re facing consequences once viewed as fringe scenarios.

    By Eugene Linden
    Mr. Linden has written widely about climate change.
    Nov. 8, 2019

    For decades, most scientists saw climate change as a distant prospect. We now know that thinking was wrong. This summer, for instance, a heat wave in Europe penetrated the Arctic, pushing temperatures into the 80s across much of the Far North and, according to the Belgian climate scientist Xavier Fettweis, melting some 40 billion tons of Greenland’s ice sheet.

    Had a scientist in the early 1990s suggested that within 25 years a single heat wave would measurably raise sea levels, at an estimated two one-hundredths of an inch, bake the Arctic and produce Sahara-like temperatures in Paris and Berlin, the prediction would have been dismissed as alarmist. But many worst-case scenarios from that time are now realities.

    When both underestimation and overestimation occur, and only the latter is penalized, underestimation is baked into the consensus conclusions. Because underestimation is by far the most costly error, a proper risk/benefit analysis should exclude it in favor of mid-range to worst case estimation.

    sealevel.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    Opinion
    How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong
    Few thought it would arrive so quickly. Now we’re facing consequences once viewed as fringe scenarios.

    By Eugene Linden
    Mr. Linden has written widely about climate change.
    Nov. 8, 2019

    For decades, most scientists saw climate change as a distant prospect. We now know that thinking was wrong. This summer, for instance, a heat wave in Europe penetrated the Arctic, pushing temperatures into the 80s across much of the Far North and, according to the Belgian climate scientist Xavier Fettweis, melting some 40 billion tons of Greenland’s ice sheet.

    Had a scientist in the early 1990s suggested that within 25 years a single heat wave would measurably raise sea levels, at an estimated two one-hundredths of an inch, bake the Arctic and produce Sahara-like temperatures in Paris and Berlin, the prediction would have been dismissed as alarmist. But many worst-case scenarios from that time are now realities.

    When both underestimation and overestimation occur, and only the latter is penalized, underestimation is baked into the consensus conclusions. Because underestimation is by far the most costly error, a proper risk/benefit analysis should exclude it in favor of mid-range to worst case estimation.

    sealevel.jpg
    Unfortunately, there is a great deal of conspiracy laden propaganda out there from Big Oil etc that has latched onto anti-science fears in a large part of the US population. And any overestimation feeds those same irrational, conspiracy based fears. Not sure what the solution is, but the conservative right sees the climate change issue as an appeal to something not far removed from world domination by socialists. And I do not know how to change that perception.
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  3. Amen shunyadragon, Duragizer amen'd this post.
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    Unfortunately, there is a great deal of conspiracy laden propaganda out there from Big Oil etc that has latched onto anti-science fears in a large part of the US population. And any overestimation feeds those same irrational, conspiracy based fears. Not sure what the solution is, but the conservative right sees the climate change issue as an appeal to something not far removed from world domination by socialists. And I do not know how to change that perception.
    What is your evidence that there is a conspiracy being led by Big Oil?

    That just sounds like another conspiracy theory. Or is your conspiracy theory better than all other conspiracy theories?

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    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    There was organized opposition against Global Warming by the Oil Companies, which has moderated recently as Oil companies diversified and Global Warming has become undeniably support by the science.

    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ExxonMobil_climate_change_controversy



    The ExxonMobil climate change controversy concerns ExxonMobil's activities related to global warming, especially their views on climate change skepticism. Since the 1970s, ExxonMobil engaged in climate research, and later began lobbying, advertising, and grant making, some of which were conducted with the purpose of delaying widespread acceptance and action on global warming.

    From the late 1970s and through the 1980s, Exxon funded internal and university collaborations, broadly in line with the developing public scientific approach. From the 1980s to mid 2000s, the company was a leader in climate change denial, opposing regulations to curtail global warming. ExxonMobil funded organizations critical of the Kyoto Protocol and sought to undermine public opinion about the scientific consensus that global warming is caused by the burning of fossil fuels. Exxon helped to found and lead the Global Climate Coalition of businesses opposed to the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. More recently it has expressed support for a carbon tax and the Paris agreement.

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    the wikipedia article wasn't very persuasive. the article just showed a company confused about the way to navigate their future.

  7. Amen Cow Poke amen'd this post.
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    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    the wikipedia article wasn't very persuasive. the article just showed a company confused about the way to navigate their future.
    Large Oil Companies do not act on confusion. It was organized opposition. As geologist I knew petroleum geologists that worked with the oil companies, and of course they knew the corporate opposition was bogus, and as time passed it became an embarrassing position not supported by science.

    It would be advisable that you read the rest of the article to understand the broad base of the corporate opposition to Global Warming up until recently. Apparently the Conservative political movements have taken up the banner to joust with windmills since many of the corporations have accepted the science of Global Warming.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    What is your evidence that there is a conspiracy being led by Big Oil?

    That just sounds like another conspiracy theory. Or is your conspiracy theory better than all other conspiracy theories?
    Big oil has been shown to be a major funding arm of climate misinformation sites like Wattsup. And their lobbies are forever pushing back against legislation thatvrecognises ot ir acts to speed up the transition away from fossil fuels.

    There is a lot of money to be lost, and like the cigarette industry, they're not above some shady 'science' to muddy the waters and slow down acceptance of the reality AGW.

    In some cases they have begun transitioning to roles less hostile, and so their current status may well be evolving, unlike those entrenched in climate science denial for religious or political reasons.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 11-12-2019 at 04:52 AM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  10. #8
    Evolution is God's ID rogue06's Avatar
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    Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Big Oil the primary investor in alternative energy? If so whatever we do for energy they win.

    I'm always still in trouble again

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    I think it's interesting that the fact that scientists "got science climate so wrong" is an argument for trusting them now.
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  12. Amen Cerebrum123, Teallaura amen'd this post.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Juvenal View Post
    Opinion
    Oh.
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  14. Amen Littlejoe amen'd this post.

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