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Real Clear Average - Polling for Support of Impeachment

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  • Support for impeachment has risen 3%-4% for each partisan category since the House voted to impeach last month.

    Screen Shot .jpg

    Support for impeachment and removal, in the latest poll by SRSS, sits at 51%. An overwhelming majority (69%) in the same poll support the Senate trial including new witness testimony. Solid majorities believe Trump abused his power and obstructed the House.
    "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

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    • Originally posted by Sam View Post
      Support for impeachment has risen 3%-4% for each partisan category since the House voted to impeach last month.

      [ATTACH=CONFIG]42278[/ATTACH]

      Support for impeachment and removal, in the latest poll by SRSS, sits at 51%. An overwhelming majority (69%) in the same poll support the Senate trial including new witness testimony. Solid majorities believe Trump abused his power and obstructed the House.
      Your chart is too small to read.

      What is a "solid majority" in this case? And since when is an impeachment trial a matter of public opinion?

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
        Your chart is too small to read.

        What is a "solid majority" in this case? And since when is an impeachment trial a matter of public opinion?
        From FiveThirtyEight's impeachment tracker.

        A solid majority is >55%. By memory, those figures were 56% and 58%.

        Public opinion factors into impeachment, obviously, but the point of this thread is just tracking the polled support for impeachment, both as a nominal figure and the trend over time.

        By comparison, more Americans supported removing Trump after the articles of impeachment passed than supported removing Nixon during the same period. And it's dangerously close to public support for removing Nixon days before he resigned in 1074 (51% to 58%).

        The process of a fair, comprehensive trial doesn't rest on public opinion, perhaps, but senators who vote to allow the Trump administration to withhold evidence do have to answer to public opinion.

        --Sam
        "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Sam View Post
          From FiveThirtyEight's impeachment tracker.

          A solid majority is >55%. By memory, those figures were 56% and 58%.

          Public opinion factors into impeachment, obviously, but the point of this thread is just tracking the polled support for impeachment, both as a nominal figure and the trend over time.

          By comparison, more Americans supported removing Trump after the articles of impeachment passed than supported removing Nixon during the same period. And it's dangerously close to public support for removing Nixon days before he resigned in 1074 (51% to 58%).

          The process of a fair, comprehensive trial doesn't rest on public opinion, perhaps, but senators who vote to allow the Trump administration to withhold evidence do have to answer to public opinion.

          --Sam
          But in this incredibly partisan climate, the Senate will not even think of voting to convict and remove unless there is, in Nancy's words, "compelling and overwhelmingly bipartisan" support for impeachment, let alone removal.

          As you're well aware, this will boil down to what each Senator can do given that they have to face their own constituents for reelection, not "the public" in general.
          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Sam View Post
            From FiveThirtyEight's impeachment tracker.

            A solid majority is >55%. By memory, those figures were 56% and 58%.
            What chart are you looking at? The chart on that page shows 49.9 support impeaching Trump and 45.9 don't support.


            ScreenHunter_.jpg
            Last edited by Sparko; 01-21-2020, 02:21 PM.

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            • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
              What chart are you looking at? The chart on that page shows 49.9 support impeaching Trump and 45.9 don't support.

              [ATTACH=CONFIG]42285[/ATTACH]
              The figures I'm referencing are:

              (3%-4% hike across partisan categories): Fivethirtyeight's tracker (the second one)

              (Other figures): The recent SRSS/CNN poll (should still be at the top of the poll list)

              --Sam
              "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                The figures I'm referencing are:

                (3%-4% hike across partisan categories): Fivethirtyeight's tracker (the second one)

                (Other figures): The recent SRSS/CNN poll (should still be at the top of the poll list)

                --Sam
                Still not following you. I posted the wrong chart myself above (edited)

                The second chart/tracker on that page is what I was referencing too. It shows pretty close tracking, with the for impeachment at only 49.9%

                ScreenHunter_.jpg

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                  Still not following you. I posted the wrong chart myself above (edited)

                  The second chart/tracker on that page is what I was referencing too. It shows pretty close tracking, with the for impeachment at only 49.9%

                  [ATTACH=CONFIG]42288[/ATTACH]
                  There seems to be some confusion of terminology. The first chart Sam posted appears to be the one asking about impeachment (which has already occurred); there is another chart below that one which shows support for removal (in the case of Republicans, support for that has nearly halved since the beginning of October, from 13% to 7.8%).
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                  • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                    Still not following you. I posted the wrong chart myself above (edited)

                    The second chart/tracker on that page is what I was referencing too. It shows pretty close tracking, with the for impeachment at only 49.9%

                    [ATTACH=CONFIG]42288[/ATTACH]
                    Sorry -- third graph, not second.

                    Democrats:

                    -House Impeachment Vote: 82.7
                    -January 20, 2020: 86.3

                    Change: +3.6

                    Independents:

                    -House Impeachment Vote: 44.4
                    -January 20, 2020: 47.7

                    Change: +3.3

                    Republicans:

                    -House Impeachment Vote: 10.2
                    -January 20, 2020: 12.6

                    Change: +2.4

                    Off a bit on my eyeball stat -- should be a change of ~+2.5% - ~+3.5%

                    --Sam
                    "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by One Bad Pig View Post
                      There seems to be some confusion of terminology. The first chart Sam posted appears to be the one asking about impeachment (which has already occurred); there is another chart below that one which shows support for removal (in the case of Republicans, support for that has nearly halved since the beginning of October, from 13% to 7.8%).
                      Yes, thank you. Support for impeachment by party, tracked by 538's third graph, has increased a few points since the House vote. Support for impeachment and removal, from the most recent SRSS poll, stands at 51% -- that percentage is from one poll, while a running average is aggregated in 538's top graph.

                      --Sam
                      "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                        Sorry -- third graph, not second.

                        Democrats:

                        -House Impeachment Vote: 82.7
                        -January 20, 2020: 86.3

                        Change: +3.6

                        Independents:

                        -House Impeachment Vote: 44.4
                        -January 20, 2020: 47.7

                        Change: +3.3

                        Republicans:

                        -House Impeachment Vote: 10.2
                        -January 20, 2020: 12.6

                        Change: +2.4

                        Off a bit on my eyeball stat -- should be a change of ~+2.5% - ~+3.5%

                        --Sam
                        OK thanks.

                        Comment


                        • And, again, RCP average shows no "overwhelming support" for removal....

                          impeach.jpg
                          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
                            And, again, RCP average shows no "overwhelming support" for removal....

                            [ATTACH=CONFIG]42346[/ATTACH]
                            Have you called your two senators and pushed them to honor the overwhelming support for allowing witnesses and documents to be subpoenaed yet?

                            --Sam
                            "I wonder about the trees. / Why do we wish to bear / Forever the noise of these / More than another noise / So close to our dwelling place?" — Robert Frost, "The Sound of Trees"

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                              Have you called your two senators and pushed them to honor the overwhelming support for allowing witnesses and documents to be subpoenaed yet?

                              --Sam
                              Ah, another opportunity to throw that word "overwhelming" around.
                              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Sam View Post
                                Have you called your two senators and pushed them to honor the overwhelming support for allowing witnesses and documents to be subpoenaed yet?

                                --Sam
                                Reason why the Senate needs to do the Houses job:



                                If the Democrats need more evidence and witnesses, maybe they should have done that vs rushing through impeachment articles and waiting a month to present them?
                                "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                                GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

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