It's the Economy, Stupid!

[seanD]

Yeah, I'm not even trying to deal with the underlying "why" -- because to most Americans, perception is reality. If it is perceived that the economy is booming, the guy currently in power has a really good chance of having a second term.

And this is my biggest gripe with Trump. It's not even about his dishonesty in order to shape populace perception, but worse. He's saying everything different than he was saying during the election (when he WAS being honest) just so he can stroke his ego. Yet there are indeed dire warning signs in the bubble market as we speak. If the market tanks because of a credit freeze, or some large bank failure (another good possibility), everyone will blame Trump and conservatives. Instead, he should have continued his honesty about the central bank and how it affects the economy overall in order that everyone would have a better understanding of it. I mean, the left will blame him no matter what, but still.

[Cow Poke]

And this is my biggest gripe with Trump. It's not even about his dishonesty in order to shape populace perception, but worse. He's saying everything different than he was saying during the election (when he WAS being honest) just so he can stroke his ego. Yet there are indeed dire warning signs in the bubble market as we speak. If the market tanks because of a credit freeze, or some large bank failure (another good possibility), everyone will blame Trump and conservatives. Instead, he should have continued his honesty about the central bank and how it affects the economy overall in order that everyone would have a better understanding of it. I mean, the left will blame him no matter what, but still.

And if the economy collapses - or even slows down- his detractors will cheer because it would seriously challenge his chances for a second term.

What's sad to me is the extent to which TrumpHaters would love to see bad things happen to our nation just so they can blame Trump and get rid of him.

[JimL]

And if the economy collapses - or even slows down- his detractors will cheer because it would seriously challenge his chances for a second term.

Damn right. The continuation of Democracy is more important than the temporary state of the economy.

What's sad to me is the extent to which TrumpHaters would love to see bad things happen to our nation just so they can blame Trump and get rid of him.

See above.

[Cow Poke]

Another aspect of the economy, of course, is unemployment...



And a significant factor of that is the minority unemployment rate.

black unemployment.jpg

[JimL]

Another aspect of the economy, of course, is unemployment...



And a significant factor of that is the minority unemployment rate.

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Again, not surprising, already headed in that direction when Trump took office. Remember unemployment was over 10% and trending higher, losing 400,000 jobs a month when Obama took office.

[Mountain Man]

His statement isn't false. The lions share of the recovery from the economic bubble occured under Obama.

After that, the growth of the GDP has been pretty much the same.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...es-since-1990/


However the Dow Jones index have done rather better under Trump.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...r-donald-trump

The stock market is not the economy. The Main Street versus Wall Street dynamic is often overlooked when discussing these matters. Part of the reason Wall Street did so well under Obama is because of the massive stimulus/slush fund he was handed early in his presidency, but while Wall Street investors were happy, those who lived on Main Street were struggling to find work and make ends meet.

[firstfloor]

Concerning sovereign debt, the World Bank compares countries based on their total debt-to-gross domestic product ratio. It considers a country to be in trouble if that ratio is greater than 77%. The U.S. ratio is 104%.

[Cow Poke]

Concerning sovereign debt, the World Bank compares countries based on their total debt-to-gross domestic product ratio. It considers a country to be in trouble if that ratio is greater than 77%. The U.S. ratio is 104%.

I'm amazed that nobody in Congress - either house or either party - or the White House seems troubled by the massive debt. It used to be a major factor in campaigns.

[Leonhard]

The stock market is not the economy. The Main Street versus Wall Street dynamic is often overlooked when discussing these matters. Part of the reason Wall Street did so well under Obama is because of the massive stimulus/slush fund he was handed early in his presidency, but while Wall Street investors were happy, those who lived on Main Street were struggling to find work and make ends meet.

Yes, because there was an economic recession that started under Bush. Again, we see a recovery all the way through Obama's period, continuing into Trump's period. Again Trump seems to be doing good, and the US continues on a good path.

[Leonhard]

I'm amazed that nobody in Congress - either house or either party - or the White House seems troubled by the massive debt. It used to be a major factor in campaigns.

What I don't get is the flip conservative politicians did from criticizing Obama for it, to Newt Gingrich claiming "Debt doesn't matter".

[Cow Poke]

Yes, because there was an economic recession that started under Bush. Again, we see a recovery all the way through Obama's period, continuing into Trump's period. Again Trump seems to be doing good, and the US continues on a good path.

Which is magnified by the fact that the gloom and doomers had predicted disaster. Obama had even said in 2016 that 3% growth was impossible, because there's a "new normal", and even (in 2010) the 9.x% unemployment rate was part of the "new normal".

And while everybody seems so anxious to give Obama the credit, at the time (2010) he said, himself,

"There are times when I thought that the economy would have gotten better by now," he said. "You know, one of the things I think you understand as president is you're held responsible for everything, but you don't always have control of everything, right?"

[Cow Poke]

What I don't get is the flip conservative politicians did from criticizing Obama for it, to Newt Gingrich claiming "Debt doesn't matter".

Agreed - and a certain amount of debt is tolerable, of course, particularly when you can see light at the end of the tunnel --- but we seem to be on a spending spree on steroids, with Republicans wanting every bigger increases in defense spending, and getting it by caving into Democrats' spending on anything they want.

[JimL]

The stock market is not the economy. The Main Street versus Wall Street dynamic is often overlooked when discussing these matters. Part of the reason Wall Street did so well under Obama is because of the massive stimulus/slush fund he was handed early in his presidency, but while Wall Street investors were happy, those who lived on Main Street were struggling to find work and make ends meet.

Of course they were struggling, Obama inherited a near depression. Many people, millions, lost their jobs, their homes, and their savings, and then after 4 years of Obama, they turned around and elected Obama for a second term. He did this while bringing down the deficit and though the economy continued to do better in Trumps first year it's leveled off at the time he can take any credit at all. The deficit also grew under Trump as as is the usual case under republican administrations after all their whining about debt and deficits.

[Leonhard]

Obama had even said in 2016 that 3% growth was impossible,

Actually he said he feared that this was the case, not that it was. And he only said it once.

And while everybody seems so anxious to give Obama the credit, at the time (2010) he said, himself,

I'm not anxious, but the economy didn't flatline during Obama like is claimed. That simply isn't shown from the data.

[Cow Poke]

Actually he said he feared that this was the case, not that it was. And he only said it once.

I think there were a few more examples that were similar, but it's not worth belaboring the point. It appeared that the Democrats, in particular, were taking a rather pessimistic view of the future.

I'm not anxious, but the economy didn't flatline during Obama like is claimed. That simply isn't shown from the data.

My point is, as I said, that the doom and gloomers were predicting that the economy would come crashing down if Trump were elected. It obviously has not. Yet.