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Thread: It's the Economy, Stupid!

  1. #11
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanD View Post
    The federal reserve has reversed course and is doing exactly what it was doing prior to Trump because of dire events occurring in the repo market. It's amazing how ignorant folks are about the central bank, what it's doing, and how it affects everything. I really really wish Trump and conservatives would stop using the economy as a sign of Trump's success, because this could backfire pretty spectacularly if the big fat ugly bubble market (Trump's own words) pops and shtf. I pray this doesn't happen before 2020. That's all I'll say.
    Yeah, I'm not even trying to deal with the underlying "why" -- because to most Americans, perception is reality. If it is perceived that the economy is booming, the guy currently in power has a really good chance of having a second term.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  2. #12
    Technology Staff Leonhard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    I needed a good laugh.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man
    The economy was stagnant under Obama and barely hanging on.
    His statement isn't false. The lions share of the recovery from the economic bubble occured under Obama.

    After that, the growth of the GDP has been pretty much the same.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...es-since-1990/


    However the Dow Jones index have done rather better under Trump.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...r-donald-trump
    Last edited by Leonhard; 12-21-2019 at 01:05 PM.

  3. Amen shunyadragon amen'd this post.
  4. #13
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    It is surprising Trump hasn't yet crashed the US economy like Bush did.

    But Trump has done literally nothing to benefit the US economy, so I don't see any way whatsoever to ascribe to him any credit for inheriting Obama's good economy.
    It's also noteworthy that the "out of power" party will do everything they can to detach a booming economy from the current White House occupant, and attribute it elsewhere, unless, of course, the economy is tanking, in which case the current White House occupant gets saddled with it and it's all his fault.

    Cuts both ways.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  5. Amen NorrinRadd amen'd this post.
  6. #14
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    I think part of this is also like when we talk about the stock market (thanks, Leon, for reminding me) where we compare "results" to "expectations" and "predictions".

    The predictions were frequent that, if elected, Trump would tank the economy. The fact that it's NOT tanked - but is actually growing - compared to expectations (of some) is quite impressive.

    Experts predicted economic Armageddon under Trump — where are they now?

    The economy is strong, unemployment is low and wages are rising, according to the latest economic data released Friday, which is in stark contrast to what the vast majority of elite economic opinion predicted just a few years ago from a Trump presidency.

    The latest unemployment report has joblessness at 3.6%. Where is the Trump Armageddon Squad now?

    What’s even more egregious is that the same folks predicting the end of the world refuse to provide sane analysis of radical proposals dribbling out of the mouths of the Democrats. They report on Medicare-for-All, the Green New Deal and college debt forgiveness as if these cockamamie ideas will have no impact on the economy.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  7. #15
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leonhard View Post
    His statement isn't false. The lions share of the recovery from the economic bubble occured under Obama.

    After that, the growth of the GDP has been pretty much the same.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...es-since-1990/


    However the Dow Jones index have done rather better under Trump.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...r-donald-trump
    Not really, you can toss the first year out which is just a continuation of the direction the economy was headed when a president first takes office. With Obama you can see the turn around in 2009 taking place and continues to steadily climb throughout his time in office. With Trump, in his first year, the Dow Jones inherited from Obama continues to climb and then begins to level off.

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    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Yeah, I'm not even trying to deal with the underlying "why" -- because to most Americans, perception is reality. If it is perceived that the economy is booming, the guy currently in power has a really good chance of having a second term.
    And this is my biggest gripe with Trump. It's not even about his dishonesty in order to shape populace perception, but worse. He's saying everything different than he was saying during the election (when he WAS being honest) just so he can stroke his ego. Yet there are indeed dire warning signs in the bubble market as we speak. If the market tanks because of a credit freeze, or some large bank failure (another good possibility), everyone will blame Trump and conservatives. Instead, he should have continued his honesty about the central bank and how it affects the economy overall in order that everyone would have a better understanding of it. I mean, the left will blame him no matter what, but still.
    "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

  9. #17
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanD View Post
    And this is my biggest gripe with Trump. It's not even about his dishonesty in order to shape populace perception, but worse. He's saying everything different than he was saying during the election (when he WAS being honest) just so he can stroke his ego. Yet there are indeed dire warning signs in the bubble market as we speak. If the market tanks because of a credit freeze, or some large bank failure (another good possibility), everyone will blame Trump and conservatives. Instead, he should have continued his honesty about the central bank and how it affects the economy overall in order that everyone would have a better understanding of it. I mean, the left will blame him no matter what, but still.
    And if the economy collapses - or even slows down- his detractors will cheer because it would seriously challenge his chances for a second term.

    What's sad to me is the extent to which TrumpHaters would love to see bad things happen to our nation just so they can blame Trump and get rid of him.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  10. Amen NorrinRadd amen'd this post.
  11. #18
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    And if the economy collapses - or even slows down- his detractors will cheer because it would seriously challenge his chances for a second term.
    Damn right. The continuation of Democracy is more important than the temporary state of the economy.
    What's sad to me is the extent to which TrumpHaters would love to see bad things happen to our nation just so they can blame Trump and get rid of him.
    See above.

  12. #19
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Another aspect of the economy, of course, is unemployment...



    And a significant factor of that is the minority unemployment rate.

    black unemployment.jpg
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  13. #20
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Another aspect of the economy, of course, is unemployment...



    And a significant factor of that is the minority unemployment rate.

    black unemployment.jpg
    Again, not surprising, already headed in that direction when Trump took office. Remember unemployment was over 10% and trending higher, losing 400,000 jobs a month when Obama took office.

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