Warren vs Sanders

[Starlight]

Also Warren / Sanders would be absolute poison in swing states.

Current polling doesn't appear to support that statement.

In general, political studies show only a small minority of voters pay careful attention to ideology (~15%). So it's not generally true that a centrist does better in a swing state or that a strong progressive does better in a deep blue state. People are much more swayed by surface things like charisma and the person saying things they like the sound of, than they are by whether an in-depth check of the candidate's alignment on the political spectrum shows they line up well with the voter's own ideological location. Most voters don't have much deeply-held ideology and are relatively low-information in terms of their understanding of the different candidates, and relatively open to any political proposal that happens to strike them as sounding good. In general votes like passion, commitment, and apparent strength in candidates, and often a candidate who is deeply committed to and passionate about an ideology will attract voters due to that commitment and passion, without the voters being overly much concerned about whether they are personally aligned with the candidate's ideology.

Anyone who thinks one of them without a strong centrist as VP

I think you're inaccurately projecting your own politics onto other people in the electorate here. The vast, vast, majority of voters will not make an assessment of how centrist the VP is relative to the main candidate. They'll just vote for the main candidate if they like them (or against the other main candidate if they hate them). The VP choice rarely affects anyone's vote, except perhaps when the VP is unusually objectionable and/or obviously unfit for office (e.g. McCain/Palin).

I'm writing off all Justice Democrats

In what sense?

[JimL]

Um... Biden seems to be getting dementia. He gets muddled up quite often when he's trying to talk. His campaign have kept him away from the media to try and hide the fact that he's not all there, but behind the scenes Obama's team and all the big donors have abandoned him cos they don't like what they see. It would be a shame if he were to stumble across the line in the primary only to promptly faceplant in the general when it became clear to everyone he wasn't up to it.

Hopefully black people in S. Carolina will see it that way by the time the election comes to them. I think what's driving their support of him is that they have a soft spot for him due to his association with Obama. I like Biden, he's not progressive enough for my blood, but I would of course vote for him over Trump. I just really think his time has past, and it's time the growing progressive wing of the party takes over.

[Starlight]

Hopefully black people in S. Carolina will see it that way by the time the election comes to them. I think what's driving their support of him is that they have a soft spot for him due to his association with Obama. I like Biden, he's not progressive enough for my blood, but I would of course vote for him over Trump. I just really think his time has past, and it's time the growing progressive wing of the party takes over.

Biden's history with policies regarding black people isn't good. He's always been at the maybe-a-little-bit-racist end of the Dem party. One reason Obama chose him I think was to try and balance out the ticket by appealing to people who weren't quite sure about a black guy on the ticket by putting the closest thing the Dems had to an anti-black person on the other half of the ticket.

However, I don't think that will be an issue for Biden in the general. Black people in the US seem to turn out and vote strongly for the Dem nominee regardless of who it is (although they may well not do so if Pete was the nominee, as there seems to be quite strong antipathy from the Black community about Pete's policies toward black people when he was mayor). My more pressing concern is that I simply don't believe Biden can win the general: He's just not all there mentally. Not that I think Trump is all there either. But, if anything, Biden seems worse than Trump as far as age-related mental deterioration goes. If the Dems nominate Biden, they'll lose. He's a worse Hillary.

[JimL]

Biden's history with policies regarding black people isn't good. He's always been at the maybe-a-little-bit-racist end of the Dem party.

I think there's a bit of that, but in his mind, not in his heart.

One reason Obama chose him I think was to try and balance out the ticket by appealing to people who weren't quite sure about a black guy on the ticket by putting the closest thing the Dems had to an anti-black person on the other half of the ticket.

Perhaps, I don't really know what the thinking was there. But, as it turned out, he ended up being extremely happy with his pick of Biden as his VP.

However, I don't think that will be an issue for Biden in the general.

Oh, I agree, not in the general, but there's a chance they could opt for what they might see as a stronger candidate in the primary. Theres still time, and a poor showing in Iowa and New Hampshire could effect their decision to support Biden in the S. Carolina. If that ever happens he's a gonner in my opinion.

Black people in the US seem to turn out and vote strongly for the Dem nominee regardless of who it is (although they may well not do so if Pete was the nominee, as there seems to be quite strong antipathy from the Black community about Pete's policies toward black people when he was mayor).

Well, they're not going to vote republican. And I think black people know just how important this election is, particularly for them. I think they'll be out to vote in droves against Trump regardless. Let's hope so.

My more pressing concern is that I simply don't believe Biden can win the general: He's just not all there mentally. Not that I think Trump is all there either. But, if anything, Biden seems worse than Trump as far as age-related mental deterioration goes. If the Dems nominate Biden, they'll lose. He's a worse Hillary.

I have the same concern, not because I don't think he's fit for the job, but I don't think he has the fight in him that will be needed to win. Sanders and Warren certainly do. This is all assuming that Trump is even in the running. Hopefully he will be in exile in Russia with Yanocovitch by then.

[DivineOb]

Current polling doesn't appear to support that statement.

Sorry, I think I wasn't clear. I meant a combined Warren and Sanders ticket would be poison.

Let me be clear, Warren is the candidate I like the most (and Sanders can jump in a lake after he stabbed us all in the back in 2016). I've given her the most money and I wish she would be president.

Biden is very old but this election is a referendum on Trump, he polls the best against Trump, and Trump has told us time and time again that Biden is the candidate he fears the most. His fear of Biden is what ended up getting him impeached and revealing the depths of Republican corruption for all to see. My original plan going back a year or more was Biden / Harris with Biden promising to serve just one term. Then Warren seduced me with her wealth tax. But going all in on Medicare for all (instead of for all who want it) was such a foolish move I can't believe she did that. There is no way that gains more votes than it loses in the only states that actually determine who wins the election.

The fact that Bernie 'Myocardial Infarction' Sanders (too mean? ) backed out of releasing his medical records after promising to do so hands the Republicans / Russians so many attack ads, memes, rumors, etc. that he's just a giant liability if he gets the nomination.

Repeat after me: 15 states determine the election. We already know the results of the other 35.

In what sense?

The below is going to sound very mushy and unconvincing because most of my opinion has been built up over a while after seeing concerning tweet after concerning tweet from 100% white hats I follow on Twitter raising various red flags (@lauferlaw has mentioned various concerning issues relating to AOC's fundraising).

I don't think JD are helpful to the cause of removing Trump or convincing a single Republican that Democrats are anything but the worst stereotypes Fox News loves to feed its viewers. Like the comment seanD posted. Is there anyone who anyone who actually thinks a Warren / Sanders ticket is how we win Pennsylvania / Ohio / Wisconsin? But what quote does a Justice Democrat feed the article and which seanD remembers as being what "progressives" are asking for?

Threatening to primary incumbent Democrats? Really, that's where we should spend our energy?

Anyway, this is the straw which broke the camel's back for me. If I'm being too hasty then time will prove that. Until that day I want nothing to do with far left lightning rods.

[seanD]

Trump has told us time and time again that Biden is the candidate he fears the most.

He's "told us time and time again" he's afraid of Biden? Imma need a source for that.

[DivineOb]

He's "told us time and time again" he's afraid of Biden? Imma need a source for that.

How about this awesome ad from Biden :).

But to actually answer your question look no further than the Ukraine scandal.

[seanD]

How about this awesome ad from Biden :).

But to actually answer your question look no further than the Ukraine scandal.

So not an actual quote from Trump like you framed it, but opinion. That's pretty much what I thought.

[DivineOb]

So not an actual quote from Trump like you framed it, but opinion. That's pretty much what I thought.

Is this supposed to be some sort of 'turnabout is fair play' type thing :)?

[Starlight]

I meant a combined Warren and Sanders ticket would be poison.

Um... if you'd asked be last week I would have said a Sanders/Warren ticket was the best possible ticket, both to maximize the chances of Dem victory and for the future of the country. Though Warren's antics this week have reminded me she's not very good at politics.

and Sanders can jump in a lake after he stabbed us all in the back in 2016

I have literally no clue what you're talking about.

He ran against Clinton... that's called a primary, not backstabbing. Then he supported Clinton after he lost and campaigned vigorously for her, that's called being a good loser and unselfishly putting the party first, not backstabbing.

Biden is very old

So are Sanders and Trump, but only Trump and Biden appear to be losing their marbles.

but this election is a referendum on Trump, he polls the best against Trump

There's minimal difference between different Dem candidates vs Trump in the polling, they're all well within each other's margins of error vs trump.

Trump has told us time and time again that Biden is the candidate he fears the most.

Eh? He's repeatedly expressed fears about the difficulty of beating Bernie. There was literally yet another article about it today.

But going all in on Medicare for all (instead of for all who want it) was such a foolish move I can't believe she did that.

I wish she had gone all in on Medicare for all. She seems to have some sort of overcomplicated position of liking medicare for all but liking obamacare too. Polling shows medicare for all is a massively popular policy and I think she would have done better to have stuck with it rather than backing out of it.

The fact that Bernie 'Myocardial Infarction' Sanders (too mean? ) backed out of releasing his medical records

Possibly you missed him doing so last month?

Repeat after me: 15 states determine the election.

Well here's a poll from Florida this week:

I don't think JD are helpful to the cause of removing Trump or convincing a single Republican that Democrats are anything but the worst stereotypes Fox News loves to feed its viewers.

Fox News will rabidly spout it's propaganda and lie to its audience about Dems regardless of what Dems do. I think it's lunacy to try to pander to them. Avoiding standing up for Dem values just because Fox News would love to make hay of it, is self-defeating.

Is there anyone who anyone who actually thinks a Warren / Sanders ticket is how we win Pennsylvania / Ohio / Wisconsin?

Sanders wins by miles in the rust belt because the voters there are really anti-NAFTA compared to the rest of the country and blame it for causing the massive job losses they've seen in recent decades. They went to Trump over Hillary because he was anti-trade-agreements and she was pro-trade-agreements. Bernie has a long history of being anti-NAFTA and other big trade agreements and does well with voters in those areas as a result.

Threatening to primary incumbent Democrats? Really, that's where we should spend our energy?

It's not zero sum. The primaries come before the general, so both happen. If, in the primaries, candidates who excite the voters more get elected, they are more likely to bring more energy to the general and be able to fundraise more from people. AOC's busy breaking fundraising records because people love her enthusiasm and strong standing up for Dem views. It's allowed her to both fundraise and donate a lot more than a normal congressperson would to support other Dem candidates. Far better to have new blood that excites the voting base and gets people activated, donating, and voting, and thus win elections, than to stick with the tried-and-failed career politicians who lost to Trump and who haven't had a new idea that excites potential Dem voters in 20 years, and thus have a repeat of 2016.

Anyway, this is the straw which broke the camel's back for me.

I'm not sure why you care about an illogical chant a few people in San Francisco had.

[rogue06]

Um... if you'd asked be last week I would have said a Sanders/Warren ticket was the best possible ticket, both to maximize the chances of Dem victory and for the future of the country.

Yeah two New England Socialists would have broad appeal.

[rogue06]

The establishment, DNC, and MSM have been at war with progressives since forever. They'd vastly prefer Republicans to win than progressives.

So in your world the MSM would back Trump before either Warren or Sanders.

[Starlight]

So in your world the MSM would back Trump before either Warren or Sanders.

Warren seems to have made her peace with them, but yes in general they would prefer a Republican over Sanders. Trump, specifically, is not an average Republican, and I don't know which way they'd go on Trump v Sanders.

Bear in mind that in virtually every single panel on virtually every single MSM show they have a Republican and a conservative Democrat on, and they pretty much close to never have a progressive on. That's a reflection of how they love Republicans and hate progressives. They like to present to their audiences a choice between conservative democrats and Republicans, and they actively avoid even suggesting it's possible for their audience to consider a progressive.

Yeah two New England Socialists would have broad appeal.

Their location of origin isn't particularly relevant. The policies they keep focusing on are wildly popular though. And Sanders in particular is viewed to be honest, uncorrupt, and having integrity. Trump wouldn't stand the ghost of a chance against Sanders. Trump would win against Biden or Pete though. Against Warren it would be 50/50 I think.

[Mountain Man]

Every indication is that Bernie supporters won't stand for him getting cheated out of the nomination a second time.

[Sparko]

Well here's a poll from Florida this week:

Wow that looks pretty close across the board. That small of a percentage is within any margin of error. Looks like Trump is still a contender despite all of this impeachment nonsense.