Trump Will Win Second Term

[Starlight]

A whopping 38% of Democrats say they will probably or definitely vote for Trump?

No. 38 percent of all voters not 38 percent of dem voters.

[Ronson]

No. 38 percent of all voters not 38 percent of dem voters.

The way it's worded, it indicates Democratic voters:

"Only 44 percent of Democratic voters told Pew Research they expect victory while a staggering 80 percent of Republicans say Trump will either probably or definitely win. That said, nearly half of those surveyed said they would probably or definitely vote for a Democrat in November while 38% said they will probably or definitely vote for Trump."

The way you are reading it would mean approximately half of the Republicans surveyed indicated they would probably be voting for a Democrat. That doesn't correlate with the 80% figure.

EDIT TO ADD:
I went to the Pew website and read the actual report. I stand corrected.

[seanD]

No. 38 percent of all voters not 38 percent of dem voters.

The interesting question is still why less than half the Dems think Trump will lose, even in spite of all the negative media attention he's getting. Though the 38% in favor of a Trump vote is also strange.

[Starlight]

The interesting question is still why less than half the Dems think Trump will lose

They were sure of Hillary and she lost. Once bitten twice shy.

[seanD]

They were sure of Hillary and she lost. Once bitten twice shy.

Or you can look at as more Dems support Trump than they're willing to admit. If you hate Trump and want him to be defeated, you automatically think he's going to lose. Only 38% admitting they'll vote for Trump, including Reps, sounds like it's the Trump stigma (you can't admit it in public) in effect.

[Terraceth]

The way it's worded, it indicates Democratic voters:

"Only 44 percent of Democratic voters told Pew Research they expect victory while a staggering 80 percent of Republicans say Trump will either probably or definitely win. That said, nearly half of those surveyed said they would probably or definitely vote for a Democrat in November while 38% said they will probably or definitely vote for Trump."

The way you are reading it would mean approximately half of the Republicans surveyed indicated they would probably be voting for a Democrat. That doesn't correlate with the 80% figure.

EDIT TO ADD:
I went to the Pew website and read the actual report. I stand corrected.

Yeah, it's probably not the best phrasing on the part of the article. I read it the same way you did until Starlight pointed out what it was actually saying, which caused me to re-read it and realize that was what was being said.

Granted, usual disclaimers apply about it being almost a year until the election, not to mention that the popular consensus matters a whole lot less than what the consensus in specific states is. But it does ironically mean that the poll has the opposite result from what was originally thought, namely it actually indicates an uphill battle for Trump compared to the Democrat.

[Ronson]

Yeah, it's probably not the best phrasing on the part of the article. I read it the same way you did until Starlight pointed out what it was actually saying, which caused me to re-read it and realize that was what was being said.

The way Bloomberg presented the survey, the crux of the story was how Democrats were going to vote. So I assumed that's what the 38% was referring to. But after reading the Pew survey directly, I could see they jumped around a bit and made a couple of sloppy condensations.

Granted, usual disclaimers apply about it being almost a year until the election, not to mention that the popular consensus matters a whole lot less than what the consensus in specific states is. But it does ironically mean that the poll has the opposite result from what was originally thought, namely it actually indicates an uphill battle for Trump compared to the Democrat.

I'm really curious which candidate will end up with the nomination. IMO, they're all really weak.

[Jim B.]

He'll definitely win if three things don't happen: War with Iran (or any major war), he's impeached, the economy stays steady.

As far as the latter, as long as the federal reserve stays dovish and keeps the repo market liquid, the illusion of things doing well with a booming market (or at least a market that's stasis) should last by next election. Powell has indicated so far he's staying dovish, and I'm sure he doesn't want to face Trump's wrath for enacting hawkish polices to the contrary.

He's already been impeached. Do you mean convicted?

[seanD]

He's already been impeached. Do you mean convicted?

Ya.

[Starlight]

I'm really curious which candidate will end up with the nomination. IMO, they're all really weak.

At this point all the data says Sanders will win. It will take something major at this point for that not to happen.

The betting markets on Sanders vs Trump in the general are giving about a 75% chance of winning to Sanders, which is consistent with the head to head polling which generally shows he trounces Trump. Republicans need to hope that either there's a huge contingent of Trump voters who won't admit to pollsters that they've voting Trump, or hope that yelling "bUt SoCiAlIsM!!!" will work in the general to an extent it never has for them before.

[seer]

At this point all the data says Sanders will win. It will take something major at this point for that not to happen.

[Ronson]

At this point all the data says Sanders will win. It will take something major at this point for that not to happen.

Like a denunciation from Obama?

The betting markets on Sanders vs Trump in the general are giving about a 75% chance of winning to Sanders, which is consistent with the head to head polling which generally shows he trounces Trump. Republicans need to hope that either there's a huge contingent of Trump voters who won't admit to pollsters that they've voting Trump, or hope that yelling "bUt SoCiAlIsM!!!" will work in the general to an extent it never has for them before.

There was a "huge contingent" of Trump voters in 2016 who refused to talk to pollsters. No reason to assume anything different this time around. And Bernie's socialism (you know, he does embrace that term) is going to sink him with moderate Democrats.

[seanD]

I get a distinct feeling that if Sanders is nominated (and I still doubt this will happen, since they're showing all the signs that they will try and subvert this like before), he's going to choose Gabbard as his VP. That might be huge, not enough to get this crazy old man in office because of his insane policies, but might make it a bit closer.

[Starlight]

Like a denunciation from Obama?

That might work. It would have to be done in the right way, to the right audience.

However, it seems like Obama and his people behind the scenes aren't all that enamored of Biden (probably because everyone who talks in private with Biden seems to come away with the impression he's losing his marbles), and are trying to support Warren. But Warren doesn't really have a path to victory anymore. To achieve a Warren victory, Obama's team would have to talk Biden into actually pulling out, which doesn't seem possible, and then get Obama to publicly endorse Warren over Bernie, and even then I wouldn't give them great odds. At the moment, if Obama did speak out against Bernie, and it worked, Biden would win.

There was a "huge contingent" of Trump voters in 2016 who refused to talk to pollsters.

I don't really see it - the national polls were correct to within their margins of error about who was going to vote what. The polls predicted a slight national vote majority to Hillary, and she got it, so they were right.

[seanD]

At this point all the data says Sanders will win. It will take something major at this point for that not to happen.

The betting markets on Sanders vs Trump in the general are giving about a 75% chance of winning to Sanders, which is consistent with the head to head polling which generally shows he trounces Trump. Republicans need to hope that either there's a huge contingent of Trump voters who won't admit to pollsters that they've voting Trump, or hope that yelling "bUt SoCiAlIsM!!!" will work in the general to an extent it never has for them before.

Even without looking, that would make absolutely no sense just based on the article Ronson linked to. I don't know what betting sites you're looking at, but every site I went to had Trump as the favorite. You might want to leave a link to wherever you got that info from. This site has him at 53%, so maybe you're getting your numbers mixed up?