Trump Will Win Second Term

[Ronson]

If this doesn't indicate a second term, I don't know what will. A whopping 38% of Democrats say they will probably or definitely vote for Trump? Unless Trump drops dead between now and November, I'd say he's assured of a second term.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d&cmpId=google

Fewer Than Half of Democrats Think Trump Can Be Beat in 2020, New Poll Finds
That said, nearly half of those surveyed said they would probably or definitely vote for a Democrat in November while 38% said they will probably or definitely vote for Trump.

[seer]

If this doesn't indicate a second term, I don't know what will. A whopping 38% of Democrats say they will probably or definitely vote for Trump? Unless Trump drops dead between now and November, I'd say he's assured of a second term.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d&cmpId=google

Wow, just wow! I know my union friends are are all going to vote for Trump...

[Ronson]

Wow, just wow! I know my union friends are are all going to vote for Trump...

This field of Democrats are pathetic; loony Uncle Joe, socialist Sanders, lying pretentious Warren. Bloomberg probably has the best chance all of a sudden (thanks to his $56 billion).

But I don't recall ever hearing about a poll that says 38% of an opposing party plans to vote for the opposition. I mean, did Reagan even get that type of percentage?

[firstfloor]

[seer]

The debt is a real problem - I'm just praying for one more Supreme Court appointment.

[Ronson]

The only (former) candidate who fretted about the debt was Rand Paul during last election. Voters apparently don't like hearing about it, they don't want to have to worry about bringing it down. He was tuned out.

Now we have a bunch of candidates promising free stuff, and Trump is spending money as though the treasury actually has it.

I don't think anyone has a plan.

[seanD]

He'll definitely win if three things don't happen: War with Iran (or any major war), he's impeached, the economy stays steady.

As far as the latter, as long as the federal reserve stays dovish and keeps the repo market liquid, the illusion of things doing well with a booming market (or at least a market that's stasis) should last by next election. Powell has indicated so far he's staying dovish, and I'm sure he doesn't want to face Trump's wrath for enacting hawkish polices to the contrary.

[seanD]

This field of Democrats are pathetic; loony Uncle Joe, socialist Sanders, lying pretentious Warren. Bloomberg probably has the best chance all of a sudden (thanks to his $56 billion).

But I don't recall ever hearing about a poll that says 38% of an opposing party plans to vote for the opposition. I mean, did Reagan even get that type of percentage?

You almost think the Dems, with their spectacularly self-inflicted antics, were intentionally trying to get this result.

[Sparko]

[rogue06]

The debt is a real problem - I'm just praying for one more Supreme Court appointment.

I think it was either today or yesterday in the early morning drive to work that I heard that nearly a third of judges on the federal bench are Trump appointments.

[Mountain Man]

I saw a story the other day that 25% of those who attended the recent Trump rally in New Jersey were Democrats.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiep...rally-n2560282

[Ronson]

He'll definitely win if three things don't happen: War with Iran (or any major war)

If war doesn't happen he'll win? That will work for me but there is a large faction that war has an opposite effect on. War has a tendency to rally people behind a president. It probably depends on the validity of the war in question.

he's impeached

You mean removed from office? I don't see it happening with the fodder they're currently playing with in the Senate.

the economy stays steady.

You mean if the economy does stay steady? You're premise "three things don't happen" is tangling up my brain.

As far as the latter, as long as the federal reserve stays dovish and keeps the repo market liquid, the illusion of things doing well with a booming market (or at least a market that's stasis) should last by next election. Powell has indicated so far he's staying dovish, and I'm sure he doesn't want to face Trump's wrath for enacting hawkish polices to the contrary.

I can't imagine any major upset in the economy. The only thing that could quickly flip things (IMO) would be a widespread Middle East war, driving oil prices through the roof.

[seer]

I think it was either today or yesterday in the early morning drive to work that I heard that nearly a third of judges on the federal bench are Trump appointments.

Yes, I think he got over 160 so far. Imagine another 4 years!

[rogue06]

Yes, I think he got over 160 so far. Imagine another 4 years!

Source: Trump Is Remaking the Federal Judiciary at a Historic Rate

Source

© Copyright Original Source

Source: Trump heads into 2020 with 'historic' judicial appointments

Source

© Copyright Original Source

I doubt that they can keep up this pace for the simple reason that they are filling vacancies, the lion's share had accumulated over several years time. That is a very limited resource.

[seanD]

If war doesn't happen he'll win? That will work for me but there is a large faction that war has an opposite effect on. War has a tendency to rally people behind a president. It probably depends on the validity of the war in question.



You mean removed from office? I don't see it happening with the fodder they're currently playing with in the Senate.



You mean if the economy does stay steady? You're premise "three things don't happen" is tangling up my brain.



I can't imagine any major upset in the economy. The only thing that could quickly flip things (IMO) would be a widespread Middle East war, driving oil prices through the roof.

Nothing can affect the economy as long as the Fed keeps the market propped up. Everything economic is totally and fully contingent on Fed policy. Even if a war happens or some global pandemic, Fed can print money like there's no tomorrow to keep the markets propped up, which will keep the economy going. War is only a negative factor on voter sentiment.