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Thread: Red States Gaining an Economic & Demographic Edge

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Red States Gaining an Economic & Demographic Edge

    Red States Gaining an Economic & Demographic Edge

    The political and cultural war between red and blue America may not be settled in our lifetimes, but it’s clear which side is gaining ground in economic and demographic terms. In everything from new jobs—including new technology employment—fertility rates, population growth, and migration, it’s the red states that increasingly hold the advantage.

    Perhaps the most surprising development is on the economic front. Over the past decade, the national media, and much of academia, have embraced the notion that the future belonged to the high-tax, high-regulation economies clustered on the East and West Coasts. The red states have been widely dismissed, in the words of the New York Times, as the land of the “left behind.”

    Yet the left-behind are catching up, as economic momentum shifts away from coastal redoubts toward traditionally GOP-leaning states. Just a few years ago, states like California, Massachusetts, and New York held their own, and then some, in measurements of income growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Now the fastest growth is concentrated in the Sunbelt and Great Plains. Texans’ income in the latest 2019 BEA estimates was up 4.2 percent, well above California’s 3.6 percent and twice New York’s 2.1 percent. The largest jumps—and this may matter a lot in 2020—took place in the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Iowa.


    I thought this was not the case. Comments?

    Only serious discussion and actual sources, please. If you're just going to parrot talking points, please do so elsewhere.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    Of course, changes in Washington could alter this trajectory. Widespread endorsement by Democratic candidates to ban fracking in places like Texas, North Dakota, Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania could drive these states into recession. In Texas alone, by some estimates, 1 million jobs would vaporize, while nationwide, according to a Chamber of Commerce report, a full ban would cost 14 million jobs—far more than the 8 million lost in the Great Recession.
    Fracking is financially unsustainable and environmentally disastrous. The companies are not profitable and rely on continually getting billions in loans.

    Maybe ol' Uncle Sam will subsidise it all.
    Last edited by demi-conservative; 02-10-2020 at 12:14 AM.
    . Bloomberg, by comparison, may be the candidate that most of the Founders hoped would arise: a wealthy patrician, much like them, who would use his vast resources and influence to defeat what he views as disruptive elements in the nation’s political system.

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    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Just a few years ago, states like California, Massachusetts, and New York held their own, and then some, in measurements of income growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Now the fastest growth is concentrated in the Sunbelt and Great Plains. Texans’ income in the latest 2019 BEA estimates was up 4.2 percent, well above California’s 3.6 percent and twice New York’s 2.1 percent. The largest jumps—and this may matter a lot in 2020—took place in the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Iowa.
    So the claim is that a few red states had a good year last year, but the writer admits that in general they haven't had many good years in recent years compared to some blue states?

    If one good year for red states proves red state policies are the best, what does several good years for blue states prove?

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    So the claim is that a few red states had a good year last year, but the writer admits that in general they haven't had many good years in recent years compared to some blue states?

    If one good year for red states proves red state policies are the best, what does several good years for blue states prove?
    It all depends on the timeline, Star --- if there are several "good years for blue states" followed by a "good year for red states", there may be a trend worth watching.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Yet the left-behind are catching up,
    Gee I guess the left-behind are really right-behind.


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    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    Red States Gaining an Economic & Demographic Edge
    How is this a good thing in the long term? 'Demographic edge' means people are streaming in who will turn the state blue, while 'economic edge' is from fracking.
    . Bloomberg, by comparison, may be the candidate that most of the Founders hoped would arise: a wealthy patrician, much like them, who would use his vast resources and influence to defeat what he views as disruptive elements in the nation’s political system.

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    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    It all depends on the timeline, Star --- if there are several "good years for blue states" followed by a "good year for red states", there may be a trend worth watching.
    If it were to happen, sure. The OP mentions only 2019 as the good year, and most of that 2019 data is still preliminary data that will be revised as it continues to be gathered.

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    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starlight View Post
    If it were to happen, sure. The OP mentions only 2019 as the good year, and most of that 2019 data is still preliminary data that will be revised as it continues to be gathered.
    Correct.
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

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    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post
    How is this a good thing in the long term? 'Demographic edge' means people are streaming in who will turn the state blue, while 'economic edge' is from fracking.
    That's how it's a good thing.

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    Spot the fallacy

    Let's play, "spot the fallacy"

    I earned a 1.0 GPA first quarter and a 1.1 GPA second quarter
    My roommate earned a 3.0 GPA first quarter and a 3.2 GPA second quarter
    My GPA improved 10%, which is more than my roommate's 6.7% improvement in GPA.
    Based on Q1 vs Q2 results, I'm gaining an academic edge over my roommate.

    Laughable, right? Done rolling your eyes? Now consider: the ONLY numbers cited by OP fit this exact mold:

    Texans’ income in the latest 2019 BEA estimates was up 4.2 percent, well above California’s 3.6 percent and twice New York’s 2.1 percent.
    Note how these would describe a hypothetical where not only was Texas performing considerable worse than CA and NY in both 2018 and 2019; but where it was actually falling further behind from 2018 to 2019 (in terms of dollars of income per year).

    Hypothetical:
    • Texans average $10,000 per year in 2018 and $10,420 per year in 2019 (increase = +$420)
    • Californians average $50,000 per year in 2018 and $51,800 per year in 2019 (increase = +$1,800)
    • New Yorkers average $100,000 per year in 2018 and $102,100 in 2019 (increase = +$2,100)


    By OP logic, even though Texans made an average of $40,000 less than Californians in 2018 and $41,400 less (i.e. falling further behind) than Californians in 2019, they'd be "gaining the economical edge" over Californians. Because hey: a 4.2 percent increase is better than a 3.6 percent increase. Right?

  11. Amen JimL amen'd this post.

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