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Trump job creation and the upcoming election

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  • #31
    Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
    I asked you about it, and you've spent the rest of the time arguing about GDP.
    I'll make this crystal clear in big font.

    DO NOT USE STOCK INDICES AS MEASUREMENT OF ECONOMY WELLNESS BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT INFLATION ADJUSTED

    They are completely unreliable as a proxy for how well the economy is doing, using them is a joke and any analyst using them is a joke.
    Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
      I definitely wish I took some courses on the economy, this is one of the bigger weak spots in my knowledge. Thank you for taking the time to explain it.

      It does look "fishy", I mean printing money to pay off loans should - I guess - devalue the currency of everyone. Which is problematic. I can't see the vicious cycle you're drawing going on forever at least.
      And therein lies the great question every economist is asking? How long can it go on? So far, it's gone on for a decade, and all the economic doom and gloom contrarians like Peter Schiff have been wrong.

      But an even bigger question is, how long can this wealth disparity last? Obviously not everyone benefits from a booming market high. Booming market high sort of keeps the normal economy chugging along (keeps companies and businesses running), but most of the insane wealth created by those (manipulated) markets doesn't benefit regular working class folks that don't have market assets.

      Also, it's important to note that just because someone might have an asset invested in the market as a retirement or something doesn't mean they're wealthy if the asset is still tied up in the market. The folks financially benefiting from this type of market manipulation are banks, brokers, traders, hedge fund managers, etc, -- i.e the Wallstreet crowd.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
        I'll make this crystal clear in big font.

        DO NOT USE STOCK INDICES AS MEASUREMENT OF ECONOMY WELLNESS BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT INFLATION ADJUSTED

        They are completely unreliable as a proxy for how well the economy is doing, using them is a joke and any analyst using them is a joke.
        Last time you were talking about GDP, but I can see the point for Stock Indexes as well. I'll remember to use inflation-adjusted graphs from now on.
        Last edited by Leonhard; 02-23-2020, 03:57 PM.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by seanD View Post
          And therein lies the great question every economist is asking? How long can it go on? So far, it's gone on for a decade, and all the economic doom and gloom contrarians like Peter Schiff have been wrong.
          I hope we never get to find out where the breaking point is. I'd hate to see the US go through another economic crash.

          Again thank you for taking the time to explain what you're talking about. It's nice for change in threads like this.

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
            I hope we never get to find out where the breaking point is. I'd hate to see the US go through another economic crash.

            Again thank you for taking the time to explain what you're talking about. It's nice for change in threads like this.
            Well, it's actually worse than you think because it's global. Every major central bank is basically doing the exact same thing the Fed is doing (keeping rates low and/or buying bonds). China's doing it, EU"s doing it (in fact, the EU has NEGATIVE rates), Japan's doing it. It's insane. And since all the markets and economies of the world are intricately intertwined, when this comes to end, it will be nothing short of apocalyptic.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
              Last time you were talking about GDP, but I can see the point for Stock Indexes as well. I'll remember to use inflation-adjusted graphs from now on.
              CPI doesn't account for the trillions in QE, and there is probably no good way to account for the inflation.

              In any case you should not be using GDP and stock market values, inflation adjusted or otherwise because they are easily manipulated and wholly unreliable. This has been explained, but you cling to them probably because all the experts do.

              What do they actually tell you? GDP tells you how much the government spending is increasing, stock market tells you about how big the QE-supported bubble is growing.
              Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by seanD View Post
                Well, it's actually worse than you think because it's global. Every major central bank is basically doing the exact same thing the Fed is doing (keeping rates low and/or buying bonds). China's doing it, EU"s doing it (in fact, the EU has NEGATIVE rates), Japan's doing it. It's insane. And since all the markets and economies of the world are intricately intertwined, when this comes to end, it will be nothing short of apocalyptic.
                Ever since the last thread where you talked about this I've been wanting to know more. Is there any resource, article or such that you would recommend to me if I wanted to dive deeper into this?

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                • #38
                  In contrast, what actually matters is how the poor are doing.* Increase in job openings matter because they can indicate for job mobility and that labour supply is outstripping demand, meaning that wages can increase.

                  For the median house income, there was stagnation from 2016 to 2017 followed by clear spikes. That's the explosive growth. GDP or stock market not explosively growing is meaningless.

                  *Man was not made for the economy, but the economy for man. You need to look at how the people are doing, not how the abstract 'economy' is doing.
                  Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
                    CPI doesn't account for the trillions in QE, and there is probably no good way to account for the inflation.
                    I didn't mention the Consumer Pricing Index directly. Perhaps you meant to write "so there is probably no" instead? As in since we cannot adequately account for those aspects, then it is difficult to adequately estimate inflation?

                    In any case you should not be using GDP and stock market values, inflation adjusted or otherwise because they are easily manipulated and wholly unreliable. This has been explained,
                    Yes, SeanD broadened my horizon about the debt increases, I'm finding that subject interesting.
                    Last edited by Leonhard; 02-23-2020, 04:14 PM.

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
                      Ever since the last thread where you talked about this I've been wanting to know more. Is there any resource, article or such that you would recommend to me if I wanted to dive deeper into this?
                      Not really, you've got to just delve into it, reading as much material as you can. It took me a good few years to grasp it all. The internet is a haven for this information, but you've got read multiple sources from a variety of economists because of everyone's bias. You have to read sources from both gloom and doom contrarians (Peter Schiff, Jim Rickards, Doug Casey) and economic Keynesian shills like Paul Krugman (basically any economist that appears on a mainstream financial network is a "everything is great, no need to panic" shill). Sven Henrich is awesome, but he caters to folks that have some basic knowledge about this stuff.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by seanD View Post
                        Not really, you got to just delve into it, reading as much material as you can. It took me a good few years to grasp it all. The internet is a haven for this information, but you've got read multiple sources from a variety of economists because of everyone's bias. You have to read sources from both gloom and doom contrarians (Peter Schiff, Jim Rickards, Doug Casey) and economic Keynesian shills like Paul Krugman (basically any economist that appears on a mainstream financial network is a "everything is great, no need to panic" shill). Sven Henrich is awesome, but he caters to folks that have some basic knowledge about this stuff.
                        It's what I've been slowly doing, this forum so far is my contact with people of a conservative economical bent while I wet my toes in this. Wish there was more of you here.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
                          In contrast, what actually matters is how the poor are doing.*

                          *Man was not made for the economy, but the economy for man. You need to look at how the people are doing, not how the abstract 'economy' is doing.
                          GDP increasing only tells you that the rich are getting richer, and same for the stock market index.

                          What's the underlying value system, what is the metaphysic? Demi says that if the economy is good, or becoming better, it means the poor are having better jobs, less living from paycheck to paycheck, less suffering. The world says that it's primarily about fat cats getting fatter.
                          Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            [Socrates]Leonhard, what do you mean by a good economy? What is good? What does it mean for an economy to improve?[/Socrates]
                            Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
                              GDP increasing only tells you that the rich are getting richer, and same for the stock market index.

                              What's the underlying value system, what is the metaphysic? Demi says that if the economy is good, or becoming better, it means the poor are having better jobs, less living from paycheck to paycheck, less suffering. The world says that it's primarily about fat cats getting fatter.
                              The median house hold income has increased under Trump and Obama, there was a downturn with the Great Recession, and after that it was recovering. That might ultimately be overshadowed by what SeanD is talking about, but that's where it is at.

                              The notion of economic mobility being important is an important point. I live in a country with a significantly higher economic mobility than your country. My grandfather was a factory worker so poor they had to grow their own food (they even had two pigs in the garage), my mother supported her parents got an education and now all her children including me have a college degree and I now earn more than my mother and father's pay combined when they were my age (inflation-adjusted).

                              I've seen a generally bad trend in the US where economic mobility is declining in general, going back several decades.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
                                I've seen a generally bad trend in the US where economic mobility is declining in general, going back several decades.
                                Yet GDP increased over all these years, so did all the stock markets (inflation adjusted too).

                                What is the definition of a good economy? Demi's definition entails that GDP and stock market values are irrelevant.
                                Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                                Comment

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