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Trump job creation and the upcoming election

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  • #16
    Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
    Why do you care so much about GDP or stock market indices? ... Those are useless regarding the poor, who are primarily affected by job availability, salaries, and cost of living,
    I also included unemployment rates as well as median houshold income, as well as how they've both increased the debt significantly.

    Like I told you in the last conversation, where I was answering Sparko who was claiming that the market itself had flat-lined under Obama (which is why I was showing the Stock Market index and GFP), I don't mind broadening the criteria for what shows a market to be healthy, or learn why this or that thing you're referring to is better.

    I have no doubt it is possible to cherry-pick some statistic that grew better under Trump: More Marvel and Starwars movies came out under his presidency than under Obama for instance. So if you claim something is more essential, why don't you argue why it is, and show objective evidence that it did better under Trump than under Obama?
    Last edited by Leonhard; 02-23-2020, 02:15 AM.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
      I also included unemployment rates as well as median houshold income, as well as how they've both increased the debt significantly.

      Like I told you in the last conversation, where I was answering Sparko who was claiming that the market itself had flat-lined under Obama (which is why I was showing the Stock Market index and GFP), I don't mind broadening the criteria for what shows a market to be healthy, or learn why this or that thing you're referring to is better.

      I have no doubt it is possible to cherry-pick some statistic that grew better under Trump: More Marvel and Starwars movies came out under his presidency than under Obama for instance. So if you claim something is more essential, why don't you argue why it is, and show objective evidence that it did better under Trump than under Obama?
      GDP growth staggered along at 1.5% in Mr. Obama’s final six full quarters in office. …growth doubled to 3% during Mr. Trump’s first six full quarters. …the increase in job openings over Mr. Trump’s first 21 months has averaged an impressive 75,000 a month. Over Mr. Obama’s last 21 months in office, the number of job openings increased an average of 900 a month. …During Mr. Obama’s last 21 months, the number of employed Americans increased an average of 157,000 a month. Under Mr. Trump, the increase has accelerated to 214,000 a month, a 36% improvement. …In Mr. Obama’s final 21 months, weekly earnings rose an average of $1.31 a month. Under Mr. Trump, weekly earnings have increased an average of $1.84 cents a month: a 40% improvement that’s come mostly since tax reform took effect in January. Over that period, weekly earnings have grown an average of $2.31 a month, a 76% increase over Mr. Obama’s last 21 months. …The unemployment rate declined 13% during Mr. Obama’s last 21 months, but from there it has dropped another 23% during Mr. Trump’s tenure.

      https://fee.org/articles/the-obama-e...kaAsgKEALw_wcB
      In other words in the last six quarters or 21 months of Obama the economy was tanking.
      Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

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      • #18
        Originally posted by seer View Post
        In other words in the last six quarters or 21 months of Obama the economy was tanking.
        I'm afraid that article is a whole year and a half out of date, there was a minor spike after Trump took his election after his tax reform. Once you average out the gdp growth, you get that the last two years of Obama's presidency and the first two years of Trump's presidency compares as follows.

        Obama: 2.0%
        Trump: 2.6%

        To get this result I just used the inflation-adjusted GDP from BEA for the years 2015-2018, and used the geometric average (as one should with rates).

        So Trump is doing a bit better, which is good. But you only get the results of 1.5% vs 3% if you do cherry-picking.

        Furthermore the claims about the jobs just doesn't seem to square with the evidence, though I could not read the source as it was behind a pay-wall.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by seer View Post
          In other words in the last six quarters or 21 months of Obama the economy was tanking.
          Trump promised to eliminate the national debt, instead, even with an economy already on the upswing, he increased the debt by 3 trillion dollars. Obama created steady growth, from a time of near depression until he left office which was peaking at the time Trump took office. The growth in the economy has merely continued under Trump, but again, he increased the debt by 3 trillion in the process.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by JimL View Post
            Trump promised to eliminate the national debt, instead, even with an economy already on the upswing, he increased the debt by 3 trillion dollars. Obama created steady growth, from a time of near depression until he left office which was peaking at the time Trump took office. The growth in the economy has merely continued under Trump, but again, he increased the debt by 3 trillion in the process.
            SeanD alerted me to this, and I'm still surprised to see that the US is increasing its debt faster than they're increasing their economic growth. And that therefore a lot of the economic growth in the US is an illusion. I said back then that they could continue to do that for a while. Now I'm starting to wonder just how long you can keep that up.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by simplicio View Post
              The current president's clear vision on the economy will be tough for the Dems to beat. Trump outdistanced Obama, making the best ever economy, ever. More Americans working, more jobs created, a tax code shaped to make America great again.
              This was covered in detail in another thread. Most of the recovery occurred under Obama, but nonetheless after the disasterous fall and economic collapse under Bush it is the USA economy that is responsible for the recovery. All Trump did was fill the pockets of the rich and blow the national debt through the roof.

              Trump 2020, making America rake again.
              I like this finish, but it is best worded as making Trump and the wealthy 'rake' again.
              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

              go with the flow the river knows . . .

              Frank

              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

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              • #22
                Federal reserve balance sheet: US outright debt holdings, less than 30 billion away from 2017 highs.




                Federal reserve balance sheet: Total assets held, less than 400 billion from 2017 highs.




                Dis all that matters. As long as the Fed keeps buying government debt and pumping billions into the market via repo, we're good.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by seanD View Post
                  Federal reserve balance sheet: US outright debt holdings, less than 30 billion away from 2017 highs.




                  Federal reserve balance sheet: Total assets held, less than 400 billion from 2017 highs.




                  Dis all that matters. As long as the Fed keeps buying government debt and pumping billions into the market via repo, we're good.
                  This looks very interesting, would you mind giving a walkthrough of either graph, I'd be interested to know more. I'm trying to understand them, so the first one is the amount of the US debt that the US government has bought?

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
                    So if you claim something is more essential, why don't you argue why it is
                    Almost anything is more essential than GDP or stock market since they are so manipulated. I've argued why looking at job openings compared to unemployment is useful, but you're not listening.

                    show objective evidence that it did better under Trump than under Obama?
                    There is that "explosive growth" in household income, yet you refuse to acknowledge it because you're fixated on the utterly useless GDP and stock market.

                    To be fair, sean and I managed to get you to also look at debt since last time, and see how in light of that most (all?) of the growth is an illusion. So at least you can listen, it just takes time.
                    Last edited by demi-conservative; 02-23-2020, 01:17 PM.
                    Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

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                    • #25
                      Leonhard, demi will just say it once more.

                      If you want to be a serious thinker about economics, don't use stock market indices. They are not even inflation-adjusted, making them worse than useless.

                      That's it from demi, if you can't accept this there's no point in demi even trying any more.
                      Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Leonhard View Post
                        This looks very interesting, would you mind giving a walkthrough of either graph, I'd be interested to know more. I'm trying to understand them, so the first one is the amount of the US debt that the US government has bought?
                        To put it as simply as possible (and this stuff can get downright technically complex), the Fed buying treasures (government bonds, securities) basically does two things: Keeps the government functioning because it can keep borrowing. As long as the government can create bonds in order to sell those bonds to borrow money, it obviously keeps the government smoothly functioning (government jobs intact, social programs intact, social security, etc.). Secondly, it keeps interest rates on those bonds low. When interest rates are low, it keeps the interest on government debt low so the government can keep borrowing (see the vicious loop here), and it also calms the markets. When interest rates on bonds rise, this gives the impression those bonds are risky, which gives the impression government debt is risky, which gives the impression something's not right with the economy, which then causes potential market panic. Now, typically everyone else but the Fed is supposed to buy those bonds, including domestic and foreign investors. The fact the Fed is buying all these bonds in such at such a rapid rate is not good for two reasons: it's counted in the national debt figure, and it's a sign investors aren't interested in buying them, which is then a sign that the investors aren't confident in those bonds, which is a sign they suspect the economy either isn't doing as well as the government wants them to believe, or they suspect a dire scenario is coming.

                        The repo market: Basically banks and other financial institutions use repo to borrow quick cash (like a drug addict borrowing from a loan shark because he needs a quick fix). Sometimes these loans last less than a day. Usually this is done by the lender giving the borrower cash in exchange for bonds. As long as interest rates on those loans stay low, everything's good. When interest rates rise, this is a sign that the loaners don't trust the borrowers ability to pay back the loans -- which can be due to any number of reasons, such as a bank about to go under or economic instability. When the Fed steps in, the market knows the Fed will provide all the cash the borrowers need because they can print the money out of thin air, which keeps interest rates on those loans low, which calms the markets.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
                          I've argued why looking at job openings compared to unemployment is useful, but you're not listening.
                          In this thread? I can't see where you've done that. I even asked you more about it.

                          There is that "explosive growth" in household income, yet you refuse to acknowledge it
                          You're stating something false here. I included a chart of the median house hold income. I see a solid growth both under Obama and Trump.

                          To be fair, sean and I managed to get you to also look at debt
                          To be fair, the credit for that belongs completely to SeanD. His post contains a lot of information I looked up later, and he is good at explaining things, instead of insulting me.

                          demi ... demi
                          Now that you're done with the slavic accent, is this your new shtick? It's not endearing.
                          Last edited by Leonhard; 02-23-2020, 03:38 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by seanD View Post
                            To put it as simply as possible (and this stuff can get downright technically complex), the Fed buying treasures (government bonds, securities) basically does two things: Keeps the government functioning because it can keep borrowing. As long as the government can create bonds in order to sell those bonds to borrow money, it obviously keeps the government smoothly functioning (government jobs intact, social programs intact, social security, etc.). Secondly, it keeps interest rates on those bonds low. When interest rates are low, it keeps the interest on government debt low so the government can keep borrowing (see the vicious loop here), and it also calms the markets. When interest rates on bonds rise, this gives the impression those bonds are risky, which gives the impression government debt is risky, which gives the impression something's not right with the economy, which then causes potential market panic. Now, typically everyone else but the Fed is supposed to buy those bonds, including domestic and foreign investors. The fact the Fed is buying all these bonds in such at such a rapid rate is not good for two reasons: it's counted in the national debt figure, and it's a sign investors aren't interested in buying them, which is then a sign that the investors aren't confident in those bonds, which is a sign they suspect the economy either isn't doing as well as the government wants them to believe, or they suspect a dire scenario is coming.

                            The repo market: Basically banks and other financial institutions use repo to borrow quick cash (like a drug addict borrowing from a loan shark because he needs a quick fix). Sometimes these loans last less than a day. Usually this is done by the lender giving the borrower cash in exchange for bonds. As long as interest rates on those loans stay low, everything's good. When interest rates rise, this is a sign that the loaners don't trust the borrowers ability to pay back the loans -- which can be due to any number of reasons, such as a bank about to go under or economic instability. When the Fed steps in, the market knows the Fed will provide all the cash the borrowers need because they can print the money out of thin air, which keeps interest rates on those loans low, which calms the markets.
                            I definitely wish I took some courses on the economy, this is one of the bigger weak spots in my knowledge. Thank you for taking the time to explain it.

                            It does look "fishy", I mean printing money to pay off loans should - I guess - devalue the currency of everyone. Which is problematic. I can't see the vicious cycle you're drawing going on forever at least.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              One last try:

                              Economic analysts: if you want to compare GDP or income to other years, the dollar values must must MUST be inflation adjusted.

                              Also economic analysts: look at unadjusted dollar values of Dow Jones/S&P/..., economy is improving!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                              Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by demi-conservative View Post
                                One last try:

                                Economic analysts: if you want to compare GDP or income to other years, the dollar values must must MUST be inflation adjusted.

                                Also economic analysts: look at unadjusted dollar values of Dow Jones/S&P/..., economy is improving!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                                The figures I showed you were inflation adjusted. I've only ever used those figures during any comparison. If you go to the BEA you can even see the specifics of what goes into those values. I've never mixed and matched either.

                                You're quite obsessed with me using that statistics. I don't get why. I did so back in a former thread when Sparko had said that the market had stalled under Obama. I've done so here along with half a dozen other criteria. You began mentioning job openings vs unemployment. I asked you about it, and you've spent the rest of the time arguing about GDP.

                                I'll ask again Demi, because - as I told you earlier - I'm eager to learn if you're willing to explain. All I want are reliable statistics, and an explanation of why job openings are more important. That's about it. Nothing more really.

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