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Thread: Trump job creation and the upcoming election

  1. #11
    Technology Staff Leonhard's Avatar
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    I've still yet to recieve a straightforward answer to what exactly was better under Trump than under Obama. About the best people can point to is that this or that market indicator performed slightly better, but I honestly don't see any more of an explosive growth under Trump. Both Trump and Obama are inflating the US deficit, like Bush before them all the way back to Reagan (with the noble exception of Clinton).

  2. #12
    Technology Staff Leonhard's Avatar
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    Generally the picture seems to be that the economy had flatlined under George Bush, and then an economic recession took place due to the collapse of the US Real Estate market, and then things have been steadily recovering since then. Though both Obama and Trump have caused enormous deficits in the US economy (which is a worrying trend to continue).

    GDP


    Dow Jones Index


    Unemployment Rate


    Average Salary (It's surprisingly hard to find reliable statistics on this, so take this chart with a grain of salt)


    Trade Deficit


    Percent Change In Total Debt Relative To Starting Point (Again, take this with a grain of salt)

  3. #13
    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    Median household income graph shows explosive growth, there you go.

    The other metrics you depict are not useful, demi would look at more useful indicators like job openings compared to unemployment, business and consumer confidence. But lots of the improvement is from big government spending, and demi hasn't bothered to check if there has been explosive improvement.
    Last edited by demi-conservative; 02-22-2020 at 10:17 PM.
    . Bloomberg, by comparison, may be the candidate that most of the Founders hoped would arise: a wealthy patrician, much like them, who would use his vast resources and influence to defeat what he views as disruptive elements in the nation’s political system.

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    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    Why do you care so much about GDP or stock market indices? Is it some kind of blind spot?

    Those are useless regarding the poor, who are primarily affected by job availability, salaries, and cost of living, not whether the latest QE has boosted the stock market.
    . Bloomberg, by comparison, may be the candidate that most of the Founders hoped would arise: a wealthy patrician, much like them, who would use his vast resources and influence to defeat what he views as disruptive elements in the nation’s political system.

  5. #15
    tWebber Tassman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simplicio View Post
    The current president's clear vision on the economy will be tough for the Dems to beat. Trump outdistanced Obama, making the best ever economy, ever. More Americans working, more jobs created, a tax code shaped to make America great again.
    You are simply wrong. "Obama’s last three years of job growth all beat Trump’s best year."

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjo.../#4fa7fb365e62

    Trump is taking credit for Obama's economy whereas his only virtue is that he hasn't actually wrecked it - yet. Although, he has created a record deficit. "The federal deficit under President Donald Trump will top $1 trillion this year, ... Debt growing toward record level."

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...n-trump-107901
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  6. #16
    Technology Staff Leonhard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post
    Why do you care so much about GDP or stock market indices? ... Those are useless regarding the poor, who are primarily affected by job availability, salaries, and cost of living,
    I also included unemployment rates as well as median houshold income, as well as how they've both increased the debt significantly.

    Like I told you in the last conversation, where I was answering Sparko who was claiming that the market itself had flat-lined under Obama (which is why I was showing the Stock Market index and GFP), I don't mind broadening the criteria for what shows a market to be healthy, or learn why this or that thing you're referring to is better.

    I have no doubt it is possible to cherry-pick some statistic that grew better under Trump: More Marvel and Starwars movies came out under his presidency than under Obama for instance. So if you claim something is more essential, why don't you argue why it is, and show objective evidence that it did better under Trump than under Obama?
    Last edited by Leonhard; 02-23-2020 at 12:15 AM.

  7. #17
    tWebber seer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leonhard View Post
    I also included unemployment rates as well as median houshold income, as well as how they've both increased the debt significantly.

    Like I told you in the last conversation, where I was answering Sparko who was claiming that the market itself had flat-lined under Obama (which is why I was showing the Stock Market index and GFP), I don't mind broadening the criteria for what shows a market to be healthy, or learn why this or that thing you're referring to is better.

    I have no doubt it is possible to cherry-pick some statistic that grew better under Trump: More Marvel and Starwars movies came out under his presidency than under Obama for instance. So if you claim something is more essential, why don't you argue why it is, and show objective evidence that it did better under Trump than under Obama?
    GDP growth staggered along at 1.5% in Mr. Obama’s final six full quarters in office. …growth doubled to 3% during Mr. Trump’s first six full quarters. …the increase in job openings over Mr. Trump’s first 21 months has averaged an impressive 75,000 a month. Over Mr. Obama’s last 21 months in office, the number of job openings increased an average of 900 a month. …During Mr. Obama’s last 21 months, the number of employed Americans increased an average of 157,000 a month. Under Mr. Trump, the increase has accelerated to 214,000 a month, a 36% improvement. …In Mr. Obama’s final 21 months, weekly earnings rose an average of $1.31 a month. Under Mr. Trump, weekly earnings have increased an average of $1.84 cents a month: a 40% improvement that’s come mostly since tax reform took effect in January. Over that period, weekly earnings have grown an average of $2.31 a month, a 76% increase over Mr. Obama’s last 21 months. …The unemployment rate declined 13% during Mr. Obama’s last 21 months, but from there it has dropped another 23% during Mr. Trump’s tenure.

    https://fee.org/articles/the-obama-e...kaAsgKEALw_wcB
    In other words in the last six quarters or 21 months of Obama the economy was tanking.
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  8. #18
    Technology Staff Leonhard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seer View Post
    In other words in the last six quarters or 21 months of Obama the economy was tanking.
    I'm afraid that article is a whole year and a half out of date, there was a minor spike after Trump took his election after his tax reform. Once you average out the gdp growth, you get that the last two years of Obama's presidency and the first two years of Trump's presidency compares as follows.

    Obama: 2.0%
    Trump: 2.6%

    To get this result I just used the inflation-adjusted GDP from BEA for the years 2015-2018, and used the geometric average (as one should with rates).

    So Trump is doing a bit better, which is good. But you only get the results of 1.5% vs 3% if you do cherry-picking.

    Furthermore the claims about the jobs just doesn't seem to square with the evidence, though I could not read the source as it was behind a pay-wall.

  9. #19
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by seer View Post
    In other words in the last six quarters or 21 months of Obama the economy was tanking.
    Trump promised to eliminate the national debt, instead, even with an economy already on the upswing, he increased the debt by 3 trillion dollars. Obama created steady growth, from a time of near depression until he left office which was peaking at the time Trump took office. The growth in the economy has merely continued under Trump, but again, he increased the debt by 3 trillion in the process.

  10. #20
    Technology Staff Leonhard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JimL View Post
    Trump promised to eliminate the national debt, instead, even with an economy already on the upswing, he increased the debt by 3 trillion dollars. Obama created steady growth, from a time of near depression until he left office which was peaking at the time Trump took office. The growth in the economy has merely continued under Trump, but again, he increased the debt by 3 trillion in the process.
    SeanD alerted me to this, and I'm still surprised to see that the US is increasing its debt faster than they're increasing their economic growth. And that therefore a lot of the economic growth in the US is an illusion. I said back then that they could continue to do that for a while. Now I'm starting to wonder just how long you can keep that up.

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