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Thread: Trump job creation and the upcoming election

  1. #21
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simplicio View Post
    The current president's clear vision on the economy will be tough for the Dems to beat. Trump outdistanced Obama, making the best ever economy, ever. More Americans working, more jobs created, a tax code shaped to make America great again.
    This was covered in detail in another thread. Most of the recovery occurred under Obama, but nonetheless after the disasterous fall and economic collapse under Bush it is the USA economy that is responsible for the recovery. All Trump did was fill the pockets of the rich and blow the national debt through the roof.

    Trump 2020, making America rake again.
    I like this finish, but it is best worded as making Trump and the wealthy 'rake' again.
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  2. #22
    tWebber
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    Federal reserve balance sheet: US outright debt holdings, less than 30 billion away from 2017 highs.




    Federal reserve balance sheet: Total assets held, less than 400 billion from 2017 highs.




    Dis all that matters. As long as the Fed keeps buying government debt and pumping billions into the market via repo, we're good.
    "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

  3. #23
    Technology Staff Leonhard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanD View Post
    Federal reserve balance sheet: US outright debt holdings, less than 30 billion away from 2017 highs.




    Federal reserve balance sheet: Total assets held, less than 400 billion from 2017 highs.




    Dis all that matters. As long as the Fed keeps buying government debt and pumping billions into the market via repo, we're good.
    This looks very interesting, would you mind giving a walkthrough of either graph, I'd be interested to know more. I'm trying to understand them, so the first one is the amount of the US debt that the US government has bought?

  4. #24
    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leonhard View Post
    So if you claim something is more essential, why don't you argue why it is
    Almost anything is more essential than GDP or stock market since they are so manipulated. I've argued why looking at job openings compared to unemployment is useful, but you're not listening.

    show objective evidence that it did better under Trump than under Obama?
    There is that "explosive growth" in household income, yet you refuse to acknowledge it because you're fixated on the utterly useless GDP and stock market.

    To be fair, sean and I managed to get you to also look at debt since last time, and see how in light of that most (all?) of the growth is an illusion. So at least you can listen, it just takes time.
    Last edited by demi-conservative; 02-23-2020 at 11:17 AM.
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    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    Leonhard, demi will just say it once more.

    If you want to be a serious thinker about economics, don't use stock market indices. They are not even inflation-adjusted, making them worse than useless.

    That's it from demi, if you can't accept this there's no point in demi even trying any more.
    Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

  6. #26
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leonhard View Post
    This looks very interesting, would you mind giving a walkthrough of either graph, I'd be interested to know more. I'm trying to understand them, so the first one is the amount of the US debt that the US government has bought?
    To put it as simply as possible (and this stuff can get downright technically complex), the Fed buying treasures (government bonds, securities) basically does two things: Keeps the government functioning because it can keep borrowing. As long as the government can create bonds in order to sell those bonds to borrow money, it obviously keeps the government smoothly functioning (government jobs intact, social programs intact, social security, etc.). Secondly, it keeps interest rates on those bonds low. When interest rates are low, it keeps the interest on government debt low so the government can keep borrowing (see the vicious loop here), and it also calms the markets. When interest rates on bonds rise, this gives the impression those bonds are risky, which gives the impression government debt is risky, which gives the impression something's not right with the economy, which then causes potential market panic. Now, typically everyone else but the Fed is supposed to buy those bonds, including domestic and foreign investors. The fact the Fed is buying all these bonds in such at such a rapid rate is not good for two reasons: it's counted in the national debt figure, and it's a sign investors aren't interested in buying them, which is then a sign that the investors aren't confident in those bonds, which is a sign they suspect the economy either isn't doing as well as the government wants them to believe, or they suspect a dire scenario is coming.

    The repo market: Basically banks and other financial institutions use repo to borrow quick cash (like a drug addict borrowing from a loan shark because he needs a quick fix). Sometimes these loans last less than a day. Usually this is done by the lender giving the borrower cash in exchange for bonds. As long as interest rates on those loans stay low, everything's good. When interest rates rise, this is a sign that the loaners don't trust the borrowers ability to pay back the loans -- which can be due to any number of reasons, such as a bank about to go under or economic instability. When the Fed steps in, the market knows the Fed will provide all the cash the borrowers need because they can print the money out of thin air, which keeps interest rates on those loans low, which calms the markets.
    "I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole, it was like... we had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment." - Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State (source).

  7. #27
    Technology Staff Leonhard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post
    I've argued why looking at job openings compared to unemployment is useful, but you're not listening.
    In this thread? I can't see where you've done that. I even asked you more about it.

    There is that "explosive growth" in household income, yet you refuse to acknowledge it
    You're stating something false here. I included a chart of the median house hold income. I see a solid growth both under Obama and Trump.

    To be fair, sean and I managed to get you to also look at debt
    To be fair, the credit for that belongs completely to SeanD. His post contains a lot of information I looked up later, and he is good at explaining things, instead of insulting me.

    demi ... demi
    Now that you're done with the slavic accent, is this your new shtick? It's not endearing.
    Last edited by Leonhard; 02-23-2020 at 01:38 PM.

  8. #28
    Technology Staff Leonhard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seanD View Post
    To put it as simply as possible (and this stuff can get downright technically complex), the Fed buying treasures (government bonds, securities) basically does two things: Keeps the government functioning because it can keep borrowing. As long as the government can create bonds in order to sell those bonds to borrow money, it obviously keeps the government smoothly functioning (government jobs intact, social programs intact, social security, etc.). Secondly, it keeps interest rates on those bonds low. When interest rates are low, it keeps the interest on government debt low so the government can keep borrowing (see the vicious loop here), and it also calms the markets. When interest rates on bonds rise, this gives the impression those bonds are risky, which gives the impression government debt is risky, which gives the impression something's not right with the economy, which then causes potential market panic. Now, typically everyone else but the Fed is supposed to buy those bonds, including domestic and foreign investors. The fact the Fed is buying all these bonds in such at such a rapid rate is not good for two reasons: it's counted in the national debt figure, and it's a sign investors aren't interested in buying them, which is then a sign that the investors aren't confident in those bonds, which is a sign they suspect the economy either isn't doing as well as the government wants them to believe, or they suspect a dire scenario is coming.

    The repo market: Basically banks and other financial institutions use repo to borrow quick cash (like a drug addict borrowing from a loan shark because he needs a quick fix). Sometimes these loans last less than a day. Usually this is done by the lender giving the borrower cash in exchange for bonds. As long as interest rates on those loans stay low, everything's good. When interest rates rise, this is a sign that the loaners don't trust the borrowers ability to pay back the loans -- which can be due to any number of reasons, such as a bank about to go under or economic instability. When the Fed steps in, the market knows the Fed will provide all the cash the borrowers need because they can print the money out of thin air, which keeps interest rates on those loans low, which calms the markets.
    I definitely wish I took some courses on the economy, this is one of the bigger weak spots in my knowledge. Thank you for taking the time to explain it.

    It does look "fishy", I mean printing money to pay off loans should - I guess - devalue the currency of everyone. Which is problematic. I can't see the vicious cycle you're drawing going on forever at least.

  9. #29
    tWebber demi-conservative's Avatar
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    One last try:

    Economic analysts: if you want to compare GDP or income to other years, the dollar values must must MUST be inflation adjusted.

    Also economic analysts: look at unadjusted dollar values of Dow Jones/S&P/..., economy is improving!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Remember that you are dust and to dust you shall return.

  10. #30
    Technology Staff Leonhard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by demi-conservative View Post
    One last try:

    Economic analysts: if you want to compare GDP or income to other years, the dollar values must must MUST be inflation adjusted.

    Also economic analysts: look at unadjusted dollar values of Dow Jones/S&P/..., economy is improving!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    The figures I showed you were inflation adjusted. I've only ever used those figures during any comparison. If you go to the BEA you can even see the specifics of what goes into those values. I've never mixed and matched either.

    You're quite obsessed with me using that statistics. I don't get why. I did so back in a former thread when Sparko had said that the market had stalled under Obama. I've done so here along with half a dozen other criteria. You began mentioning job openings vs unemployment. I asked you about it, and you've spent the rest of the time arguing about GDP.

    I'll ask again Demi, because - as I told you earlier - I'm eager to learn if you're willing to explain. All I want are reliable statistics, and an explanation of why job openings are more important. That's about it. Nothing more really.

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