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  • The following is an interesting method of modeling the COVID-19 pandemic that is similar to what I use, bit I disagree with the article that it is "new."

    Source: https://scitechdaily.com/new-model-predicts-the-peaks-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-around-the-world/



    New Model Predicts the Peaks of the COVID-19 Pandemic Around the WorldIn the new paper, Tsallis and Tirnakli used data from China, where the active case rate is thought to have peaked, to set the main parameters for the formula. Then, they applied it to other countries including France, Brazil, and the United Kingdom, and found that it matched the evolution of the active cases and fatality rates over time.

    The model, says Tsallis, could be used to create useful tools like an app that updates in real-time with new available data, and can adjust its predictions accordingly. In addition, he thinks that it could be fine-tuned to fit future outbreaks as well.

    © Copyright Original Source



    This use of modeling, and mine, do not depend on predicting accurate numbers, but predict the natural bell curve path and trends of the COVID-!9 in a given population. The problem with predicting actual numbers or using total numbers alone is there are to many factors that effect the actual numbers alone as a a way of predicting infection rate and course of the COVID-19 infection. The actual numbers of countries like China, USA, Russia and Brazil are unbelievably inaccurate due to political motives and lack of a competent well planned testing program.



    .
    Last edited by shunyadragon; 05-30-2020, 09:40 AM.

    Comment


    • The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

      Comment


      • How I view Shuny's Posts:

        Originally posted by Shunyadragon
        blah blah blah

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
          How I view Shuny's Posts:
          Shuny posted something?
          The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Cow Poke View Post
            derp derp derp
            What?

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
              What?
              The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                The following is an interesting method of modeling the COVID-19 pandemic that is similar to what I use, bit I disagree with the article that it is "new."

                Source: https://scitechdaily.com/new-model-predicts-the-peaks-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-around-the-world/



                New Model Predicts the Peaks of the COVID-19 Pandemic Around the WorldIn the new paper, Tsallis and Tirnakli used data from China, where the active case rate is thought to have peaked, to set the main parameters for the formula. Then, they applied it to other countries including France, Brazil, and the United Kingdom, and found that it matched the evolution of the active cases and fatality rates over time.

                The model, says Tsallis, could be used to create useful tools like an app that updates in real-time with new available data, and can adjust its predictions accordingly. In addition, he thinks that it could be fine-tuned to fit future outbreaks as well.

                © Copyright Original Source



                This use of modeling, and mine, do not depend on predicting accurate numbers, but predict the natural bell curve path and trends of the COVID-!9 in a given population. The problem with predicting actual numbers or using total numbers alone is there are to many factors that effect the actual numbers alone as a a way of predicting infection rate and course of the COVID-19 infection. The actual numbers of countries like China, USA, Russia and Brazil are unbelievably inaccurate due to political motives and lack of a competent well planned testing program.



                .
                Interesting Shuny - thanks.
                My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                Comment


                • Update: Active daily cases in the US are somewhat stable for the last 3 weeks, though what was a slight decline has become a slight incline. There is no real hint of a significant protest driven rise yet that I can see.

                  US daily 7 day average 06052020.PNG

                  The 7 day average for day 1 of the plot is 23,214, for the last point is 22,227. The low point was 21,080 7 days ago.

                  I'll post an update again if a major change shows before, or if not, by the end of next week.

                  This graph represents the state post reopening. The decline was far steeper before the reopening. There is no attempt here to analyze finer grained trends, like rises in some areas (e.g. CA) vs declines in others (e.g. NY).
                  Last edited by oxmixmudd; 06-05-2020, 11:52 AM.
                  My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                  If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                  This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                  Comment


                  • Comment


                    • If we look at the results from my daughter's lab, Trump is winning bigly Testing has not decreased at all, but positives are few and far between.
                      That's what
                      - She

                      Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                      - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                      I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                      - Stephen R. Donaldson

                      Comment


                      • Here in New Zealand the government today lifted all remaining business and social distancing restrictions as the disease seems to have been fully eliminated from the country. Only difference to usual is that the borders are closed to humans. Apart from that all business and economic life should resume as per normal.
                        "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                        "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                        "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
                          If we look at the results from my daughter's lab, Trump is winning bigly Testing has not decreased at all, but positives are few and far between.
                          Good to hear. Rachel must be exaggerating.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                            Here in New Zealand the government today lifted all remaining business and social distancing restrictions as the disease seems to have been fully eliminated from the country. Only difference to usual is that the borders are closed to humans. Apart from that all business and economic life should resume as per normal.
                            Great news, Star.
                            The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                            Comment


                            • In the US as a whole we are mostly flat. Places where the disease is on an upswing like Arizona, North Carolina are compensated for by places where the mitigation efforts have been effective and the numbers of new cases are falling..

                              Some of the more absurd situations are Brazil which, rather than implementing any sort of stay at home order has simply chosen to stop reporting cumulative data. It is still reporting daily numbers. So sites like wordometwrs will continue to provide updates.
                              Last edited by oxmixmudd; 06-09-2020, 07:42 AM.
                              My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                              If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                              This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                              Comment


                              • BTW, here's the posters the NZ government was using throughout the quarantine (the NZ version of the UK's Keep Calm and Carry On, I guess):

                                COVID19_icon_facebook_be-kind.jpg

                                Seeing them always made me think of the... slightly different... tone that Trump was setting in the US. Maybe he could do with a few thousand sent to him now to help him out?
                                "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                                "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                                "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                                Comment

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