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  • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    How long?

    2 weeks? A month? 6 months?
    Unknown at this time. This virus is novel.

    Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    Fast, the government is not. It will likely take the government several weeks to set anything up, too late for many.
    Again, where did I say that everything was up to the government? This appears to be a strawman of your own constructing, so I have no further response.

    Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    Where do the resources and taxes come from?

    Here is our choices:

    1. Start things back up in a few weeks and hope things turn out good.
    2. Spend trillions of government dollars in having people shelter in place for several weeks and hope Great Depression 2 doesn’t start.
    Those are not the only two choices. There is also:

    3. Follow the science and the evidence to find the optimum place/means of "starting up" that will balance health risk with economic risk.

    Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    No real easy solution, but it’s far from being heartless or having a lack of morals because Great Depression 2 can be as deadly as a virus.
    It can be more - and as soon as you have the evidence that suggests which is more likely to be more deadly, by all means share it. Until then, I believe we should be making evidence-based decisions - not decisions rooted in a pre-existing political narrative.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

    Comment


    • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
      Let me help you:

      “You got the following fact(s) wrong....”

      Feel free to fill in as you see fit or keep throwing down self righteous condemning, your choice.
      Pretending not to know what I (and others) have corrected consistently on these pages over the last two months. Seriously?

      Over the last two months there has been post after post claiming, among other things:

      This will not be so bad. It's all being exaggerated

      The mortality rate is really very low, maybe even lower than the flu (one person claimed 1/10th that of the flu)

      The only reason it looks bad is we are not testing

      The flu kills more people

      everybody is overreacting, there are only X cases in my entire state

      claims that a flu-like mortality can account for what we are seeing in Italy and other places with severe outbreaks

      The absurd notion the virus itself is all china's fault.

      etc.

      ----

      Ignorance - all of it.
      Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-25-2020, 11:32 AM.
      My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

      If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

      This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

      Comment


      • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
        Your words:
        And where does that say "government will meet your needs?" In fact, there are both private and government solutions at play at all of those levels. Our town council is making some of the town resources available, and so is a grass-roots community support group called "Neighbor Helping Neighbor." Our state is acting on policies, but so are several state-wide businesses and charities putting their resources at the disposal of citizens of our state. The federal government is acting, but so are national-scale businesses and charities.

        However, I was a bit sloppy in my language and "national" would probably have been a better word than "federal." The latter makes people think specifically of government, which is apparently what you did, so I do plead guilty to fostering the incorrect impression by poor choice of language with respect to that word.
        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

        Comment


        • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
          Unknown at this time. This virus is novel.
          And did you not say yourself that 40% of Americans can’t make a 400 dollar unexpected expense? So how will Americans pay their bills and feed themselves, on half their salary, waiting for Washington to figure it out?

          Again, where did I say that everything was up to the government? This appears to be a strawman of your own constructing, so I have no further response.
          If people are locked inside and can’t earn a paycheck, how will they pay their bills?

          Those are not the only two choices. There is also:

          3. Follow the science and the evidence to find the optimum place/means of "starting up" that will balance health risk with economic risk.
          And if the risk is having to shelter in place, for 6 weeks, than what?

          It can be more - and as soon as you have the evidence that suggests which is more likely to be more deadly, by all means share it. Until then, I believe we should be making evidence-based decisions - not decisions rooted in a pre-existing political narrative.
          The Great Depression lead to WW2. Sounds pretty deadly, to me.
          "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
          GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

          Comment


          • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
            And where does that say "government will meet your needs?" In fact, there are both private and government solutions at play at all of those levels. Our town council is making some of the town resources available, and so is a grass-roots community support group called "Neighbor Helping Neighbor." Our state is acting on policies, but so are several state-wide businesses and charities putting their resources at the disposal of citizens of our state. The federal government is acting, but so are national-scale businesses and charities.

            However, I was a bit sloppy in my language and "national" would probably have been a better word than "federal." The latter makes people think specifically of government, which is apparently what you did, so I do plead guilty to fostering the incorrect impression by poor choice of language with respect to that word.
            And what if this thing last for nearly 2 months (as some suggest). Than what? Will you at least admit that people worrying about the economic impact are not necessarily the heartless ghouls, you tried to paint them as being?
            "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
            GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

            Comment


            • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
              And did you not say yourself that 40% of Americans can’t make a 400 dollar unexpected expense? So how will Americans pay their bills and feed themselves, on half their salary, waiting for Washington to figure it out?
              I said nothing about people having to wait for Washington. Resources are coming into play from a wide variety of sources.

              Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
              If people are locked inside and can’t earn a paycheck, how will they pay their bills?
              Again, from a variety of resources and in a variety of ways (e.g., payment deferrals; payment forgiveness; local, state, and national resources - both government and private). Americans do have a history of amazing resilience, and helping one another in times of need.

              Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
              And if the risk is having to shelter in place, for 6 weeks, than what?
              "Sheltering in place" is not a risk - it's a possible response to a risk. The risk it is a response to is the threat posed by this virus. And sheltering place has largely one objective: to flatten the curve so as not to overwhelm our healthcare resources. It cannot solve the problem of the coronavirus. The fact is, there are only two ways I know of for the population to cease to be at risk from this virus: survive it or be vaccinated. Lacking a vaccine, for now, that leaves "survive it." So most efforts should be on finding the treatments that maximize survival, push forward the testing so that cases are identified as quickly as possible and we know the dynamics of the threat as clearly as possible, put all possible resources towards the development of a vaccine, and continually look for ways to safely bolster and restart segments of our economy it is possible to restart.

              Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
              The Great Depression lead to WW2. Sounds pretty deadly, to me.
              Such a simplistic reflection of history is not really worth responding to. It will end up in the usual snarl most discussion with you become. I'll leave this to you.
              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

              Comment


              • The spread of the virus and the effectiveness of control measures are predicted by mathematical equations. By now, enough is known that very little guesswork is involved.
                “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
                “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
                “not all there” - you know who you are

                Comment


                • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                  Let me help you:

                  “You got the following fact(s) wrong....”

                  Feel free to fill in as you see fit or keep throwing down self righteous condemning, your choice.
                  Remember when he "half-apologized" for his insulting rhetoric? And then he immediately turns around and says to me:
                  Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                  Its origin is no longer meaningful except to those, like you, that wish to cast blame and/or foster hate.
                  It's a pattern for him and why I never take his apologies seriously. He likes to hose himself clean and then immediately crawl back into the mud thinking he's somehow fooled us all with his hypocritical "I'm so sorry! It'll never happen again!" groveling.
                  Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                  But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                  Than a fool in the eyes of God


                  From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                    And what if this thing last for nearly 2 months (as some suggest). Than what?
                    I think you mean "then what?" (sorry - the grammar nazi comes out now and then )

                    Calls for speculation. I believe we should be making evidence-based decisions.

                    Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                    Will you at least admit that people worrying about the economic impact are not necessarily the heartless ghouls, you tried to paint them as being?
                    Umm...I don't believe I said "people worried about the economic impact are heartless ghouls." I'm worried about the economic impact. I've watched my retirement portfolio shrink 30% in 5 weeks with little prospect for a turn around and I'm 61+ and retired. But money is not my primary driver in life - so that worry is displaced by other, more human concerns: the plight of my neighbors, the health of the elderly, the education of my students, and so forth.

                    To place "the economy" and "money" at the front of my decision processes is not how I want to live out my values, and is not a value I respect. And the values I respect are the core reason I would never vote for a man like Trump. Even if all of Biden's policy decisions aligned 100% with my own preferences (and they don't), if he started to act like Trump, I would drop him like a hot potato. I don' want a lying, narcissistic, vengeance-seeking, bully suffering from megalomania representing me or sitting in the highest office in the land.
                    Last edited by carpedm9587; 03-25-2020, 11:48 AM.
                    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                      How many died, in the Great Depression and the immense turmoil that resulted in it? Mussolini, Hitler, Mao, Stalin, etc all come to power thanks to a bad economic situation. Care to roll those dice again?

                      FYI, I doubt millions will die, but you’re welcome to prove they will.
                      Again, it is not that we can pretend there is not a potential for serious economic consequences. That is just as real as the disaster in terms of human Ives of ignoring the danger the virus presents. The problem is pretending there is only one problem to be solved. These are two problems where the solution to one exaggerates the danger of the other.

                      There is no simple solution. We need to be smart, we need to care about and be wise wrt each of them, and we need to work together to try to avoid the worst of either.

                      Your comment about doubting millions will die is simple ignorance. 1% of 150 million is 1.5 million. And the number is that low only if less than half get the disease in this country, and if we do NOT overwhelm the medical system.
                      Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-25-2020, 11:56 AM.
                      My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                      If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                      This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                        For a time it was legitimate to refer to it by its location and/or point of apparent origin. It was mostly isolated and of limited impact.

                        But it's no longer localized, so the term now takes on a pejorative element - as you and others demonstrate regularly. It is now covid-19 or SARS-CoV-2 and a global pandemic. Its origin is no longer meaningful except to those, like you, that wish to cast blame and/or foster hate.
                        Out of curiosity, would this reasoning apply to, say, the Spanish flu? What's the technical name for that? (I assume it has one, but genuinely have no idea without looking it up).
                        I DENOUNCE DONALD J. TRUMP AND ALL HIS IMMORAL ACTS.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                          Pretending not to know what I (and others) have corrected consistently on these pages over the last two months. Seriously?

                          Over the last two months there has been post after post claiming, among other things:
                          More holier than thouness, let’s begin!

                          This will not be so bad. It's all being exaggerated
                          Some say it’s the next Spanish Flu, others don’t. Depends on who you ask, but we do know your age and your overall health do play a role in how sick you’ll get and your odds of dying. Over 80 is the most deadly and under 10, as of now, no recorded cases of death. So it will be ‘bad’ all depends on those two factors. True or false?

                          The mortality rate is really very low, maybe even lower than the flu (one person claimed 1/10th that of the flu)
                          I never said anything of the sort, so stop attributing things to me I never said. From what I can find, the death rate had a lot to do with age:

                          0-10 - none recorded
                          11-39 - around .2%
                          40-49 - rises to around 1.7%
                          50+ - begins to rise quickly, to around 37%, for those over 80.

                          Is this more deadly than the flu? Yes, will it lead to millions of dead Americans or even a million? Unlikely. It will likely claim more in retirement communities so older Americans should be more careful while younger Americans should wash our hands more and sanitize more often.

                          The only reason it looks bad is we are not testing
                          It does have a point where you can’t truly understand the impact of an illness without knowing who is and isn’t infected. Right now, only the more serious cases are being tested, so I do think that’s valid, but I really doubt it will make it less deadly than the average seasonal flu if we tested more.

                          The flu kills more people
                          Did I say that anywhere?

                          everybody is overreacting, there are only X cases in my entire state
                          People do seem to be freaking out, but can you actually point to where I made that point?

                          claims that a flu-like mortality can account for what we are seeing in Italy and other places with severe outbreaks
                          What I actually said was Italy was a poor model for the US because the Italian population is more likely to have more deaths because they are 7 years older than the US, on average. That is why we’re seeing increased mortality rates, in Italy.

                          The absurd notion the virus itself is all china's fault.
                          So China didn’t spend the past few months lying to the world and suppressing word on the new virus?

                          Yep, we have one of your post. You falsely attribute things to me I never said than wonder why I don’t take you seriously. You charged me with things I never said, I expect an apology for your false accusations, but knowing your history here. I don’t expect one.

                          Ignorance - all of it.
                          False accusations noted.
                          Last edited by lilpixieofterror; 03-25-2020, 12:27 PM.
                          "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                          GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Zymologist View Post
                            Out of curiosity, would this reasoning apply to, say, the Spanish flu? What's the technical name for that? (I assume it has one, but genuinely have no idea without looking it up).
                            Technically - yes. But the fact is "Spanish Flu" is as embedded in the lexicon as "Swine Flu" and "Bird Flu," so I doubt it is subject to change at this point. In this age of polarization, adding one more brick to the "let's emphasize us vs. them" narrative is simply not justified. Furthermore, some things that appear to arise in one place, when the dust settles, can often be traced to another. The 2009 pandemic was seen as arising in the U.S. and now, as per information Seer provided, is believed to have arisen in Mexico.

                            I will continue to use "coronavirus" and "Covid-19" in the hopes of not further pushing the "us vs. them" narrative. "Chinese virus" and "Wuhan virus" create us vs them in two ways: us vs. the Chinese (about the virus) and right vs. left (about the use of "Chinese" and "Wuhan" in the name). In my opinion, Trump is striving for both and I won't give him the satisfaction. I urge others to do the same.
                            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                              I said nothing about people having to wait for Washington. Resources are coming into play from a wide variety of sources.
                              And how many will dry up, the longer this carries on?

                              Again, from a variety of resources and in a variety of ways (e.g., payment deferrals; payment forgiveness; local, state, and national resources - both government and private). Americans do have a history of amazing resilience, and helping one another in times of need.
                              The generation that lasted through the dust bowel, the Great Depression, and carried on through WW2 are old men and women today. Many Americans have no concept of true hardship and the longer this goes on, the harder it will become to avoid Great Depression 2.

                              "Sheltering in place" is not a risk - it's a possible response to a risk. The risk it is a response to is the threat posed by this virus. And sheltering place has largely one objective: to flatten the curve so as not to overwhelm our healthcare resources. It cannot solve the problem of the coronavirus. The fact is, there are only two ways I know of for the population to cease to be at risk from this virus: survive it or be vaccinated. Lacking a vaccine, for now, that leaves "survive it." So most efforts should be on finding the treatments that maximize survival, push forward the testing so that cases are identified as quickly as possible and we know the dynamics of the threat as clearly as possible, put all possible resources towards the development of a vaccine, and continually look for ways to safely bolster and restart segments of our economy it is possible to restart.
                              A vaccine is likely a year or more away and none of this answers how this can continue, as resources get stretched and thereÂ’s less and less around. Sounds like a possible Pyrrhic victory, to me.

                              Such a simplistic reflection of history is not really worth responding to. It will end up in the usual snarl most discussion with you become. I'll leave this to you.
                              YouÂ’re welcome to try to refute it, but the Great Depression helped the rise of Hitler and many other tyrants. That isnÂ’t an opinion, but an historical fact.
                              "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                              GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                                And how many will dry up, the longer this carries on?
                                There is no answer to this question. Calls for pure speculation.

                                Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                                The generation that lasted through the dust bowel, the Great Depression, and carried on through WW2 are old men and women today. Many Americans have no concept of true hardship
                                If they can do it - we can do it.

                                Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                                and the longer this goes on, the harder it will become to avoid Great Depression 2.
                                True, and no one has argued otherwise. The question is - when is the evidence-based point to make the shift and what should that shift look like to minimize harm to people?

                                Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                                A vaccine is likely a year or more away and none of this answers how this can continue, as resources get stretched and thereÂ’s less and less around. Sounds like a possible Pyrrhic victory, to me.
                                Yep - a vaccine is currently projected at being a year away. Perhaps that can be changed. Perhaps not. Until it is, there are only two ways to protect the herd: avoid the virus or survive the virus. The first is a stop-gap, the second is long-term. The first is fostered by social isolation. The latter is fostered by finding effective treatments for the infected, and ensuring that our healthcare systems are not overwhelmed.

                                Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                                YouÂ’re welcome to try to refute it, but the Great Depression helped the rise of Hitler and many other tyrants. That isnÂ’t an opinion, but an historical fact.
                                Such a simplistic rendering of history is not worthy of a response. I'll leave it to you.

                                And I have to admit that I have lost track of whatever point it was you thought you were making in the noise of the tangents. So I'll leave the last word to you unless you are inclined to refocus on whatever your point is.
                                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                                Comment

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