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  • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    And this is what TSD looks like...
    They are trying to make sure that the GOP does not give away 500 billion dollars to companies that will squander it. There need to be controls on how the money is used. There needs to be paid leave for workers (or a supplement to state unemployment that will pay the actual salaries). This money needs to go to making sure the companies employee's and the companie's basic infrastructure remain intact across the space of the social distancing construct. They can't just take the money and give their CEO's big bonuses, or buy back their own stock etc.

    The republican side does understand perhaps better than the democrats that a failed economy, a depression, is also a great strain on the nation and its people. As Trump pointed out, is the cure worse than the disease. That is not a fake concern, that is real. So you can't JUST focus on paying workers, but neither can you cow-tow to the corporate desire for profits. In fact, it might be a really good time for all corporations to eye break-even or a small loss with any eye toward taking profits (those that are profiting, e.g. amazon and medical equipment providers) and using it for the good of the nation in this time.

    What manipulation looks like rogue is dismissing the real concerns of either side and not working to a balance of both concerns and a compromise where neither side gets exactly what they want. Both sides need to STOP the Trumpian era magnification of polarization and blaming of the other guy for things where there is shared responsibility. BOTH sides need to stop playing to their base.

    And YOU and I are part of that. So STOP with the partisan crap and START posting constructive, real discussion of what needs to happen on BOTH sides. Because THEY are a reflection of US. And until YOU and I can figure out we are in this TOGETHER, THEY will continue to operate as they are.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-24-2020, 07:41 AM.
    My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

    If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

    This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

    Comment


    • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
      Oh I am fairly sure of the latter. It already has. AFAICT, the majority of young people are disgusted with the strange bedfellows that are the religious right and the Trump administration. That bodes well for the future, IMO. I had never been of the mind that religion is a danger to society, but I am increasingly finding myself questioning that position.
      I am with you in a sense carpe. This thing that calls itself Christian faith that is in bed with Trump (or any political party) is not what I see in the Gospels or in the Scripture, though I recognize that it would be easy for a person like yourself to treat it all as one thing. I do not and have never understood the person that can read the words of Christ and somehow marry it with what we see in our politics today. Christ was no friend of any politician in His day - he made them ALL mad at him (those that did not chose to follow Him), as did John The Baptist (eventually losing his head). There can be no power in this world that violates basic moral principles that can find a true ally in a true Christian. Because to follow Christ is to be for good, love, helping those in need, giving away wealth and not holding onto the things of this world - and teaching others to do the same. Which means when the politics requires or prefers to do evil or pursue power at the expense of the poor and innocent, the true Christian MUST speak up AGAINST it!

      Jesus taught you can't love both the sorts of materialistic things that drive capitalism and God. You can't be committed to any world government or system over what is good, what is just, what is love, in short, what God desires of us and for us.

      Every person must chose one or the other.
      My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

      If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

      This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

      Comment


      • A few weeks ago I tried to respond to some of the ignorance of epidemiology and exponential growth that was in constant display at the time. So lets look at what is actually happening:

        Today we have seen a total of somewhere near (or north of by the time you read this) 390,000 cases.

        But what about active cases: We have around 260000 active cases.

        8 days ago (03/16) we were at about 1/3 of that: 90,000 cases.

        16 days ago (03/08) we were at mor than 1/3, but less than half that: 38000 cases

        24 days ago (03/01) we were at, believe it or not, not even 3/4 of that: 34000 cases

        IOW, our doubling time is DECREASING!

        Ok, so maybe that is somehow testing related ... after all we know some cases go undetected. maybe the speed up is just more testing exposing a greater percentage

        Indeed that has to be some of it ... BUT

        So lets look at deaths.

        Right now we are at 17,000 dead

        8 days ago (03/16) we were at 6700 dead. it more than doubled but not quite as close to 1/3 as the #active cases..

        16 days ago (03/08) we were at 3700 dead. Not quite double, but almost

        24 days ago (03/01) we were at 3000 dead. 3/4 again.

        So testing or no - the spread is not merely exponential, it has INCREASED. The time to double the population has DECREASED. we see this in the logarithmics curves. A movement to a steeper slope in the logarithmic curve means it is spreading FASTER than before though it seems to have stabilized at a doubling time of something around a week or less world wide.

        What that means campers is that we hit 1,000,000 cases in early april, and 16 million by the end of April, and hundreds of million before June 1

        Current mortality is 4.4 % naive, 14.2% worst case. At 4% we are looking at 40,000 dead by early april, somewhere 700,000 dead by the end of april, mulitple millions dead by end of May.

        This is word wide. US doubling rate is worse right now. We are doubling active cases every 4 days. We are doubling deaths every 3 days.

        our naive mortality is better, 1.2%, but our worst case is really bad: 190% (that is because more people have died than have fully recovered in the US).

        IOW, we have NO CLUE what the US mortality rate is, but it is almost GUARANTEED to be higher than 1.2%
        Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-24-2020, 08:26 AM.
        My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

        If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

        This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

        Comment


        • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
          They are trying to make sure that the GOP does not give away 500 billion dollars to companies that will squander it.
          No. They are ASSUMING that companies will squander it based on their hatred for capitalism. Let's be real, Jim.
          That's what
          - She

          Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
          - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

          I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
          - Stephen R. Donaldson

          Comment


          • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post

            Ok, so maybe that is somehow testing related ... after all we know some cases go undetected. maybe the speed up is just more testing exposing a greater percentage
            Indeed that is MOSTLY why our numbers are increasing. It isn't getting more contagious. It's just being caught by testing.

            Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-testing-capacity-increases-case-numbers-grow-2020-3


            The jump is in large part a reflection of increased testing — which means the number will probably continue to grow as the US's testing capacity keeps expanding.

            As of Sunday, 191,541 coronavirus tests have been done in the US, according to the COVID Tracking Project, a test-tracking resource from two journalists at The Atlantic and the founder of a medical-data startup. (They noted that the figure could be incomplete because of different states' policies on reporting negative tests.) That's a huge jump from February 29, when only 472 tests had been run in the country. That was already more than a month after the US' first case was reported. On March 4, only 969 tests had been run, and by March 11, 7,617 had been done.

            © Copyright Original Source

            That's what
            - She

            Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
            - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

            I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
            - Stephen R. Donaldson

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
              No. They are ASSUMING that companies will squander it based on their hatred for capitalism. Let's be real, Jim.
              Speaking of being real, Corporate greed has NEVER be self restraining. Clearly you are NOT aware of the history of Child labor and Child labor laws, of the exploitaion of children we still see even by US corporations eyeing profits over the well being of others (e.g. the chocolate industry to name but 1 of thousands), Or what of the mill towns where employees LITERALLY owed their entire lifetime earnings to the 'company store', or those in the mining industry dying of black lung, or the virtual destruction of our rivers and ecosystems in the 70's, or the gulf oil spill, or the polluting of ground water with waste chemicals and associated cover ups killing townspeople and children, or the Enron fiasco, and I could go on and on.

              There is one constant in the this world: Men will lie, kill, cheat, murder, massacre, and destroy anything and everything all in the name of Greed. And the ONLY thing that has ever limited that is government oversight and laws to prevent it.

              Indeed BTC, let us get REAL! "For the LOVE OF MONEY is the root of ALL Kinds of evil". That is the BIBLE Bill. 1 Timothy 6:10

              Yes - we either put enforceable constraints on this money or it WILL be squandered into the coffers of but a few very, very, very rich people.
              Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-24-2020, 08:57 AM.
              My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

              If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

              This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
                Indeed that is MOSTLY why our numbers are increasing. It isn't getting more contagious. It's just being caught by testing.

                Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/us-coronavirus-testing-capacity-increases-case-numbers-grow-2020-3


                The jump is in large part a reflection of increased testing — which means the number will probably continue to grow as the US's testing capacity keeps expanding.

                As of Sunday, 191,541 coronavirus tests have been done in the US, according to the COVID Tracking Project, a test-tracking resource from two journalists at The Atlantic and the founder of a medical-data startup. (They noted that the figure could be incomplete because of different states' policies on reporting negative tests.) That's a huge jump from February 29, when only 472 tests had been run in the country. That was already more than a month after the US' first case was reported. On March 4, only 969 tests had been run, and by March 11, 7,617 had been done.

                © Copyright Original Source

                That is not what the number of deaths is telling us BTC. And that number HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH TESTING.

                You are being a fountain of misinformation - read the entirety of my post and start facing the reality that the actual data shows!
                My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                Comment


                • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                  A few weeks ago I tried to respond to some of the ignorance of epidemiology and exponential growth that was in constant display at the time. So lets look at what is actually happening:

                  Today we have seen a total of somewhere near (or north of by the time you read this) 390,000 cases.

                  But what about active cases: We have around 260000 active cases.

                  8 days ago (03/16) we were at about 1/3 of that: 90,000 cases.

                  16 days ago (03/08) we were at mor than 1/3, but less than half that: 38000 cases

                  24 days ago (03/01) we were at, believe it or not, not even 3/4 of that: 34000 cases

                  IOW, our doubling time is DECREASING!

                  Ok, so maybe that is somehow testing related ... after all we know some cases go undetected. maybe the speed up is just more testing exposing a greater percentage

                  Indeed that has to be some of it ... BUT

                  So lets look at deaths.

                  Right now we are at 17,000 dead

                  8 days ago (03/16) we were at 6700 dead. it more than doubled but not quite as close to 1/3 as the #active cases..

                  16 days ago (03/08) we were at 3700 dead. Not quite double, but almost

                  24 days ago (03/01) we were at 3000 dead. 3/4 again.

                  So testing or no - the spread is not merely exponential, it has INCREASED. The time to double the population has DECREASED. we see this in the logarithmics curves. A movement to a steeper slope in the logarithmic curve means it is spreading FASTER than before though it seems to have stabilized at a doubling time of something around a week or less world wide.

                  What that means campers is that we hit 1,000,000 cases in early april, and 16 million by the end of April, and hundreds of million before June 1

                  Current mortality is 4.4 % naive, 14.2% worst case. At 4% we are looking at 40,000 dead by early april, somewhere 700,000 dead by the end of april, mulitple millions dead by end of May.

                  This is word wide. US doubling rate is worse right now. We are doubling active cases every 4 days. We are doubling deaths every 3 days.

                  our naive mortality is better, 1.2%, but our worst case is really bad: 190% (that is because more people have died than have fully recovered in the US).

                  IOW, we have NO CLUE what the US mortality rate is, but it is almost GUARANTEED to be higher than 1.2%
                  An article on need for testing:

                  https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by simplicio View Post
                    While the point of view expressed in that article addresses a reality, we can know it is a bounded reality by simply observing the raw number of deaths in Italy and Spain and the slope of the infection/mortality curves. IOW, it puts a little bit of a skewed slant on 'what we don't know'.

                    And while I agree testing is needed, it becomes futile after a certain number of cases, because you just can't produce or evaluate enough tests to do anything about what is happening.

                    Unless people can be re-infected, those curves can't continue on their current slopes for long if the mortality rates are as low as the hopeful constructs in that article. And we can look at mean time to die form those that show up, mean time to recovery, and the associated ratios. 1% is the number that keeps coming up as a realistic lower bound, which is 10x influenza. And what we are seeing in Italy makes that number look horribly unrealistic, because the other thing this disease does in produce drastically more severe respiratory distress than influenza, which translates to double of triple the mortality when proper medical care is not available.

                    1% mortality is hard to reconcile with producing the horror we are seeing in Italy and Spain. And will likely see in NY if the Federal government doesn't act quickly to get resources to them.

                    At the same time, we do know mortality increases with age, and so it is perhaps, as has been postulated, that 1% with a skew toward 10% in older populations (and correspondingly lower mortality in younger populations) is causing what we see in Italy.
                    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-24-2020, 09:07 AM.
                    My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                    If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                    This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
                      No. They are ASSUMING that companies will squander it based on their hatred for capitalism. Let's be real, Jim.
                      No, democrats are concerned about a 500 billion dollar slush fund in the bill targeted to corporations with no oversight.
                      Last edited by JimL; 03-24-2020, 09:08 AM.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                        Ummm..no. My logic is about the trend in the numbers. It says nothing about the cause of the trend in the numbers. I am perfectly aware, as I have said many times, that it is very likely the testing is uncovering an existing iceberg of cases, as well as emerging new cases.

                        The other things in the post (i.e., the WHO report and Trump has to go) were tangential and not statements rooted in the numbers per se.
                        A trend in upward numbers really tells us little if we don’t know the reason why. We’ll likely see an upward trend as testing kits become more common and we begin to learn more about how the virus spreads and we become better at guessing who to else to test as we find people showing positive.
                        "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                        GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                          While the point of view expressed in that article address a reality, we can know it is a bounded reality by simply observing the raw number of deaths in Italy and Spain and the slope of the infection/mortality curves.

                          Unless people can be re-infected, those curves can't continue on their current slopes for long if the mortality rates are as low as the hopeful constructs in that article. And we can look at mean time to die form those that show up, mean time to recovery, and the associated ratios. 1% is the number that keeps coming up as a realistic lower bound, which is 10x influenza. And what we are seeing in Italy makes that number look horribly unrealistic, because the other thing this disease does in produce drastically more severe respiratory distress than influenza, which translates to double of triple the mortality when proper medical care is not available.

                          1% mortality just can't produce the horror we are seeing in Italy and Spain. And will likely see in NY if the Federal government doesn't act quickly to get resources to them.
                          I think it outrageous that we need to rely on foreign countries for real, hard, accurate, data on morbidity and mortality to create mathematical models for this epidemic. (the intereting case is Iceland, who has tested the entire population, and will continually test to track the disease's transmission; it is the epidemiologist's case study)

                          I am not in favor of lifting the recommendations on social distancing as some advocate (for the economic benefits), but a tailored and flexible approach is one that has been recommended by some, but that needs detailed history and continuous testing. South Korea used a flexible approach based on testing,as is China now.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                            Speaking of being real, Corporate greed has NEVER be self restraining.
                            And not all corporations are greedy. So your fallacious elephant hurl fails on its initial premise.

                            Clearly you are NOT aware of the history of Child labor and Child labor laws, of the exploitaion of children we still see even by US corporations eyeing profits over the well being of others (e.g. the chocolate industry to name but 1 of thousands), Or what of the mill towns where employees LITERALLY owed their entire lifetime earnings to the 'company store', or those in the mining industry dying of black lung, or the virtual destruction of our rivers and ecosystems in the 70's, or the gulf oil spill, or the polluting of ground water with waste chemicals and associated cover ups killing townspeople and children, or the Enron fiasco, and I could go on and on.
                            And continue in your self-righteous ignorance. Anyone can sit in an ivory tower and snipe situations without actually understanding anything about them. Yes, there exists corporate greed, and yes, fallen men will do fallen things. But assuming the worst based on instances of past abuses is irresponsible.

                            There is one constant in the this world: Men will lie, kill, cheat, murder, massacre, and destroy anything and everything all in the name of Greed.
                            Some will. Others won't.

                            And the ONLY thing that has ever limited that is government oversight and laws to prevent it.
                            Utterly false. Owners NOT driven solely by profit or greed and the workers themselves have been pretty effective limiting abuses. But hey... since "lie, kill, cheat, murder, massacre, and destroy anything and everything all in the name of Greed", then I guess you too would do those things...

                            Indeed BTC, let us get REAL! "For the LOVE OF MONEY is the root of ALL Kinds of evil". That is the BIBLE Bill. 1 Timothy 6:10
                            Notice it says the LOVE of money, not the ACCUMULATION of it...

                            Yes - we either put enforceable constraints on this money or it WILL be squandered int the coffers of but a few very, very, very rich people.
                            So says Karnak the stupid...
                            That's what
                            - She

                            Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                            - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                            I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                            - Stephen R. Donaldson

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by simplicio View Post
                              I think it outrageous that we need to rely on foreign countries for real, hard, accurate, data on morbidity and mortality to create mathematical models for this epidemic. (the intereting case is Iceland, who has tested the entire population, and will continually test to track the disease's transmission; it is the epidemiologist's case study)

                              I am not in favor of lifting the recommendations on social distancing as some advocate (for the economic benefits), but a tailored and flexible approach is one that has been recommended by some, but that needs detailed history and continuous testing. South Korea used a flexible approach based on testing,as is China now.
                              Iceland population: 364,000

                              US population: 327.2 million

                              Come back when you find an apples to apples comparison.
                              "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                              GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                                That is not what the number of deaths is telling us BTC. And that number HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH TESTING.
                                The number of cases increasing at the percent you cited is EXACTLY what the increased testing discovered, Jim.

                                You are being a fountain of misinformation - read the entirety of my post and start facing the reality that the actual data shows!
                                The reality is that more testing finds more cases. That isn't even debatable. It's common sense. So, trying to determine "mortality rates" based on deaths per positive test before the testing was available to the public is irresponsible on its face.

                                People that die from the virus will die whether they are tested or not. But scare mongering with hypothetical exponential infection numbers in the hundreds of millions is why no one can find a roll of Charmin...
                                That's what
                                - She

                                Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                                - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                                I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                                - Stephen R. Donaldson

                                Comment

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