Coronavirus Outbreak...

[simplicio]

a) 1, 2, 3 etc. – hence all numbers and types of numbers – can be derived (if not by me) from the empty set: it seems “nothing” is unstable.

b) We had a Big Bang, so we now have a universe instead of nothing: it seems “nothing” is unstable.

c) The product of all the numbers in the empty set – that set which has NO numbers in it – is 1.
(“In Mathematics you don’t come to understand things, but just get used to them.” – the discoverer, John von Neumann.)


Thought I'd add my two-pennorth, albeit late.

:) And everything is built up, based on, from nothing!

[NorrinRadd]

Why are we trusting China for our medical supplies?

The disgusting truth is that we currently have little choice. At least that's what I got from Thursday's Task Force briefing.

[Roy]

Such pronouncements assume that the data coming from each country is accurate and of equal quality. Personally, I trust the US healthcare system to provide the most accurate data possible. Not so much other countries, especially those where the government controls the healthcare system and has a vested interest in keeping numbers artificially low.

Such a government would have a vested interest in keeping the numbers artificially high, because that would justify increased taxes and greater government control over the people.

[carpedm9587]

Meanwhile the left is having a field day mocking and belittling someone who converted 75% of his businesses into making masks for doctors and nurses. They'll be producing up to 50,000 per day.

I officially appoint you "King of the Broad Brushes"

[Mountain Man]

Such a government would have a vested interest in keeping the numbers artificially high, because that would justify increased taxes and greater government control over the people.

Nope. It's a lot easier to raise taxes when you can claim you're doing a great job than it is to say you need more money because you failed.

"I don't mind paying a little more because of what a good job they're doing" vs "Why should I pay more when they're doing such a bad job with what I've already paid?"

[carpedm9587]

I am really curious to know the response to this comment from Jared Kushner in yesterday's briefing:

The notion of the federal stockpile is that it's supposed to be our stockpile. It's not supposed to be states' stockpiles that they then use.

[Roy]

I am really curious to know the response to this comment from Jared Kushner in yesterday's briefing:

The notion of the federal stockpile is that it's supposed to be our stockpile. It's not supposed to be states' stockpiles that they then use.

Maybe he thinks federal stockpiles are for use in Washington DC, Puerto Rico, Guam and for foreign aid.

[Mountain Man]

I am really curious to know the response to this comment from Jared Kushner in yesterday's briefing:

The notion of the federal stockpile is that it's supposed to be our stockpile. It's not supposed to be states' stockpiles that they then use.

He's right. States are independent governing bodies and have governors to manage them. As the President's recent letter to Chuck Schumer patiently explained, the federal government can serve as a backup, but it in no way has the resources to take care of all 50 states. A state can't leave itself unprepared and then expect the federal government to necessarily have the resources to bail it out, especially when multiple states are appealing for help.

[Sparko]

Now you have your decimal point off by one. 45,497/911,308 = .04992 = 4.99% (5%)

As I said, the best situations are between 1 and 2%. The worst are above 10% (Italy)

Dang it! You are right. I did the exact same thing I was chiding LM for!

Thanks.

[Sparko]

So China is going around disinfecting entire cities. Is this an overreaction or do they know something we don't?

[little_monkey]

Such a government would have a vested interest in keeping the numbers artificially high, because that would justify increased taxes and greater government control over the people.

I don't agree with that assessment. Authoritarian leaders don't tolerate criticism as that is taken as a challenge to the competency of their leadership. They also tend to see the medias as the enemy of the people. They demand total loyalty, and when they address the public, it's all about them... sounds familiar!?

[oxmixmudd]

Sadly, the potential downturn we thought we saw in the US does appear to have been a statistical anomaly, though the log curve is still bending down a bit (#case, not #deaths).

log cases US 04032020.jpg

New York now has as many cases as the entire US less than a week ago.

The US has almost a full 1/4 of the worlds cases.

Our mortality, once in the low 1%, has now crept up to 2.55%. This at a time when increased testing should be driving it down. This is because the log death curve is till basically a straight line.

log deaths US 04032020.jpg

At the current cases growth rate, we will see 500,000 cases in 1 week. 1,000,000 in 2.

At the current death growth rate we will see 24,000 deaths in 1 week, 100,000 in 2. So based on case growth and a 2.5% mortality, we should soon see the log deaths curve bend down. Otherwise we are headed for mortalities more in line with Spain, France, or Italy - 5 to 10%.


Starting late chasing an exponential bomb is a hard hare to catch ...

[little_monkey]

Sadly, the potential downturn we thought we saw in the US does appear to have been a statistical anomaly, though the log curve is still bending down a bit (#case, not #deaths).

.

The latest numbers I got:

March 31: 24,742 new cases and 912 new deaths
April 1: 26,473 new cases and 1,049 new deaths
April 2: 29,874 new cases and 968 new deaths

The # of new cases is still accelerating but # of new deaths seem to have slowed down. Anomaly, hopefully not...we might see a turnaround. The next 2-3 days will clarify.

[Darth Executor]

They also tend to see the medias as the enemy of the people.

This is nonsense. Authoritarians OWN the media.

[Charles]

This is nonsense. Authoritarians OWN the media.

Anything to support your claim? And remember you did speak in general terms about "the media" not some particular media source.