Coronavirus Outbreak...

[Sparko]

If that were true, what has happened in italy simply would not be happening. You're quoting a mortality rate 1/10 that of the flu. It would be impossible for a disease with such a low mortality rate to overwhelm any modern medical system.

Mortality isn't the same as being sick enough to be in the hospital and tying up resources.

[simplicio]

Wow...I didn't get THAT from any of the posts I read. I definitely missed the mark...

Back at the start of this exchange, Pixie criticized wiping down shopping carts without gloves or mask. Reducing the germ load is possible without a mask or gloves, which is one goal of wiping down. And another goal which I did not bring up is the behavioral symbolism of wiping down surfaces, which cannot be ignored since it is significant. Shopping carts cannot be reasonably disinfected, sanitization is the goal. Army doctrine distinguished between sanitization and disinfecting when it comes to bio agents, bioweapons and normal disease agents in both combat and health care. (military portable hospitals are not designed for dealing with infectious diseases, rather battlefield traumas. Which is why soldiers are moved out as quickly as possible)

My point is that each task in health care has an appropriate level protective gear, which parallels Army SOPs. Hospitals battled ubiquitous bugs like orsa and mersa, dangerous bugs like the flesh eating staph, etc. Seldom was full gear used. Hospitals have varying levels which are considered essential for the task (and I note that it has been less than a generation since gloves have been used for all contact with patients).

CDC knows what they are doing (I hope). If not, there are countless nursing and medical professionals out there. And they have thought through these things, and the information is out there.

[oxmixmudd]

Mortality isn't the same as being sick enough to be in the hospital and tying up resources.

True, but somewher around 50% of those that end up in The ICU with this die. Given that, my statement stands.

[oxmixmudd]

Back at the start of this exchange, Pixie criticized wiping down shopping carts without gloves or mask. Reducing the germ load is possible without a mask or gloves, which is one goal of wiping down. And another goal which I did not bring up is the behavioral symbolism of wiping down surfaces, which cannot be ignored since it is significant. Shopping carts cannot be reasonably disinfected, sanitization is the goal. Army doctrine distinguished between sanitization and disinfecting when it comes to bio agents, bioweapons and normal disease agents in both combat and health care. (military portable hospitals are not designed for dealing with infectious diseases, rather battlefield traumas. Which is why soldiers are moved out as quickly as possible)

My point is that each task in health care has an appropriate level protective gear, which parallels Army SOPs. Hospitals battled ubiquitous bugs like orsa and mersa, dangerous bugs like the flesh eating staph, etc. Seldom was full gear used. Hospitals have varying levels which are considered essential for the task (and I note that it has been less than a generation since gloves have been used for all contact with patients).

CDC knows what they are doing (I hope). If not, there are countless nursing and medical professionals out there. And they have thought through these things, and the information is out there.

Wiping down surfaces does in fact reduce or eliminate any virus or bacteria not being brought into the environment by the person doing the wiping - which is the point of doing it to a grocery cart that was just selected to use in the store

[firstfloor]

There are countries with very low mortality. Russia, interestingly, with only 93 cases, has reported 0 deaths so far.

They are speed building their second 500 beds hospital. The virus probably works the same in Russia as anywhere else. Maybe their figures are out of date.

[Sparko]

True, but somewher around 50% of those that end up in The ICU with this die. Given that, my statement stands.

I don't think that is true. Where do you get that number? Also not everyone in the hospital ends up in the ICU. But they still clog up the healthcare system, such as tying up doctors and nurses, hospital beds, equipment, etc.

[demi-conservative]

If that were true, what has happened in italy simply would not be happening. You're quoting a mortality rate 1/10 that of the flu. It would be impossible for a disease with such a low mortality rate to overwhelm any modern medical system.

Most people who die from the flu don't die in ICU and tie up critical resources. In Italy everyone with potential kung flu and serious symptoms are tying up resources.

[Mountain Man]

If that were true, what has happened in italy simply would not be happening. You're quoting a mortality rate 1/10 that of the flu. It would be impossible for a disease with such a low mortality rate to overwhelm any modern medical system.

How many people are rushing to the hospital and demanding unnecessary testing and treatment because they have a cough and are now convinced they're going to die because of the media's fearmongering, but in reality would recover quite well at home with a little rest and chicken soup? That will clog up the healthcare system just as readily as legitimate serious cases.

[simplicio]

Wiping down surfaces does in fact reduce or eliminate any virus or bacteria not being brought into the environment by the person doing the wiping - which is the point of doing it to a grocery cart that was just selected to use in the store

As a practical matter, it merely reduces the number, it is not practical to nearly eliminate the virus load on the cart with a quick wipe down. Disinfecting a cart is impractical, the contact of the ungloved hand or breathing of the employee will only impart relatively few viruses.

It is the equivalent of reducing grime, which is effective in partially sanitizing equipment, and gloves and mask will make for little difference. So the employee was doing okay without the extra equipment.

[rogue06]

How man people are rushing to the hospital and demanding unnecessary testing and treatment because they have a cough and are now convinced they're going to die because of the media's fearmongering, but in reality would recover quite well at home with a little rest and chicken soup? That will clog up the healthcare system just as readily as legitimate serious cases.

Given that we are just entering allergy season around here and often see pollen counts in five digits (when anything over 1000 is considered very high)^[1], hospitals are expecting that a lot of people will flood hospitals thinking they have the coronavirus when it's an allergy even though they've gone through this every year.



1. The price we pay for being in many ways a "forest city."

[oxmixmudd]

I don't think that is true. Where do you get that number? Also not everyone in the hospital ends up in the ICU. But they still clog up the healthcare system, such as tying up doctors and nurses, hospital beds, equipment, etc.

Do you have a point? This thing is not .01% mortality. If we are lucky it is only 100x that.

[oxmixmudd]

As a practical matter, it merely reduces the number, it is not practical to nearly eliminate the virus load on the cart with a quick wipe down. Disinfecting a cart is impractical, the contact of the ungloved hand or breathing of the employee will only impart relatively few viruses.

It is the equivalent of reducing grime, which is effective in partially sanitizing equipment, and gloves and mask will make for little difference. So the employee was doing okay without the extra equipment.

Yes, any quick measure like wiping is unlikely to actually eliminate all germs on a surface. But the again, neither is it a necessary condition to see a benefit from doing it.

[Christianbookworm]

I have spring crud now. But no fever or shortness of breath, so not the coronavirus! People can't tell the difference between allergies and pneumonia?

[oxmixmudd]

How many people are rushing to the hospital and demanding unnecessary testing and treatment because they have a cough and are now convinced they're going to die because of the media's fearmongering, but in reality would recover quite well at home with a little rest and chicken soup? That will clog up the healthcare system just as readily as legitimate serious cases.

That isnt what is happening in Italy. Or Iran. Or Spain. O France. Or UK.

[Sparko]

Do you have a point? This thing is not .01% mortality. If we are lucky it is only 100x that.

My point was you told MM that "You're quoting a mortality rate 1/10 that of the flu. It would be impossible for a disease with such a low mortality rate to overwhelm any modern medical system."

Even with that low of a mortality rate (which I agree isn't that low) you could easily overwhelm the medical system. A - people panic and B - there could be more serious cases that require hospitalization but not end in death which could mean a very serious illness but with a low mortality rate.