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Thread: Coronavirus Outbreak...

  1. #3841
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    My comment was not meant to address a specific source...
    I know, it was a general swipe at me that missed by a mile.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  2. #3842
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    I know, it was a general swipe at me that missed by a mile.
    We'll never agree on that point.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  3. #3843
    tWebber little_monkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    We'll never agree on that point.
    MM is an aspiring comedian. The reality is that on the comedy circuit he would literally starve. However somehow he managed to find an audience on Tweb. So give him his due for that much.

  4. Amen Starlight amen'd this post.
  5. #3844
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rogue06 View Post
    My biggest concern is if we get another wave next Autumn, how much will the situation be exacerbated by it being flu season as well (which typically swamps hospitals on its own).
    I will hold off on a prediction of a resurgence of COVID19 in the Fall, because of unknowns as to the nature of this coronavirus..

    I will make the prediction of a second hump in June or early July of cases and deaths that parallel other large countries, and some small countries that are not isolated like large islands. Relaxing measures like social distancing may cause a greater number of cases and fatalities, but the pattern of the curve is dependent on the virus. There will be a long gradual recovery agrivated by a lack of uniform measures to control the spread of the infection.

    I have problems with the count of the number of cases, because of the problems of testing being consistent over time. The increase in testing distorts the curve over time. It is likely that early and the middle in the pandemic the number of actual total cases was 50 to 80% higher, and the more recent curve is more accurate, because of the high number of asymptomatic and lightly infected. Taking this into consideration the actual bell curve of the infection history would have a more uniform symmetry with a much higher peak.

    The better estimates documenting the history of the coronavirus is the number of confirmed severe cases and the fatalities over time. I consider this a good sampling over time, but not necessarily accurate, because of many countries not providing accurate counts for political reasons like: Brazil, China, and Russia. Even though the numbers are not always accurate the bell curve of the history of the COVID 19 is consistent world wide for larger and medium countries..

    Smaller isolated countries with uniform populations and good testing, like New Zealand, Taiwan and Australia show a more symmetrical uniform curve of the corona virus history.
    Last edited by shunyadragon; 05-27-2020 at 11:14 AM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  6. Amen MaxVel amen'd this post.
  7. #3845
    tWebber firstfloor's Avatar
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    The problem with Trump/Putin in a crisis:
    Putin’s centralized power structure cannot handle the crisis alone. Putin delegated much of the burden to regional officials who were frightened of drawing attention to local problems and risking Moscow’s wrath.
One way to stay under the radar could be to understate cases or deaths, analysts say.
    Don’t upset the boss!

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...385_story.html
    “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
    “You can safely assume you've created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do.” ― Anne Lamott
    “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell

  8. #3846
    tWebber firstfloor's Avatar
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    Launch scrubbed.
    “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
    “You can safely assume you've created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do.” ― Anne Lamott
    “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell

  9. #3847
    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shunyadragon View Post
    the pattern of the curve is dependent on the virus.
    I never know what to make of this statement when I read it from you. It sounds like some sort of spiritual claim, that the great and holy all-powerful virus creates its own pattern regardless of human response.

    Smaller isolated countries with uniform populations and good testing, like New Zealand, Taiwan and Australia show a more symmetrical uniform curve of the corona virus history.
    Huh? I don't know what you think you mean by calling us 'uniform' because all the definitions I can think of for that make your statement false.

  10. #3848
    tWebber
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    Quote Originally Posted by little_monkey View Post
    MM is an aspiring comedian. The reality is that on the comedy circuit he would literally starve. However somehow he managed to find an audience on Tweb. So give him his due for that much.
    Well, he might get them laughing, but they wouldn't be laughing with him.

  11. #3849
    tWebber Mountain Man's Avatar
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    The mantra has been "More testing! More testing! More testing!"

    Now the CDC is saying that the tests are more likely to record a false positive than a false negative.

    Serologic tests – commonly referred to as antibody tests – detect whether or person previously had the Wuhan coronavirus but showed no symptoms "by measuring the host humoral immune response to the virus." If an antibody test is given to someone in an area with a low number of infections, it is highly probable that "less than half of those testing positive will truly have antibodies," Forbes reported.

    "In most of the country, including areas that have been heavily impacted, the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibody is expected to be low, ranging from less than 5% to 25%, so that testing at this point might result in relatively more false positive results and fewer false-negative results," the CDC website stated.

    Because the data is unreliable, the CDC says antibody testing shouldn't be relied upon to determine public policy decisions, like whether or not to reopen the economy or "grouping persons residing in or being admitted to congregate settings, such as schools, dormitories, or correctional facilities."

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethba...itive-n2569569

    So what's the actual infection rate? Do we even know at this point?
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

  12. #3850
    tWebber Starlight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mountain Man View Post
    The mantra has been "More testing! More testing! More testing!"

    Now the CDC is saying that the tests are more likely to record a false positive than a false negative.
    You're confusing two completely different types of test.

    The normal Covid testing is a PCR test, which looks for Covid DNA. Its rate of false-positives is so close to zero as makes no difference. But it does seem to return false negatives reasonably often (i.e. a person might have Covid but the test misses it, e.g. because the sample wasn't taken from infected cells). This is the type of test all countries have been using thus far to test for actual current Covid infections.

    There has been recent work on a new completely different method, called antibody testing. Antibody testing tries to look in your blood for antibodies your immune system has produced to fight off the virus. This is a very hard type of test to get right because everyone has slightly different immune systems which make slightly different antibodies. Antibody testing is always very inaccurate initially, and improves very slowly over time (usually about a 2 year development period) as the developers of the test are able to sample more and more people and improve its detection of the right antibodies. Theoretically, a properly working version of this test, would allow countries to sample their population and find what percentage of people have had covid previously and gotten over it.

    Your cited article correctly describes the problems of antibody tests being inaccurate. That is why barely anyone is currently using them for anything with regard to Covid (there have been a couple of pilot studies to try to guestimate the proportion of people in Stockholm and NYC who had had covid and gotten over it). They are not used on a daily basis to diagnose covid cases. Any graphs of current covid cases are based on the standard PCR tests that are far more accurate.

    The "more testing" mantra typically refers to the idea that the current pretty-accurate PCR tests should be done in greater numbers on the population right now to identify who does and doesn't have covid at this point in time. It doesn't usually refer to a desire to develop new antibody tests to try and test what proportion of people have gotten over having covid.
    Last edited by Starlight; 05-27-2020 at 05:43 PM.

  13. Amen MaxVel amen'd this post.

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