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The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostThe steroid issue is interesting. The early demand for ventilators was based on the initial belief that COvid-19, being a respiratory illness (among other things) would require ventilators for those entering late stage. But ventilators are only good when the problem is mechanical (i.e., getting air into the lungs). They are much more ineffective when the problem is movement of oxygen into the bloodstream within the lungs. The virus can, apparently, seriously impair this process, with inflammation being a major component. So they have found that steroids can be used to reduce the inflammation and improve oxygen transfer.
I suspect all of the "best practices" that have been found will help to keep the number of daily deaths from rising to their previous levels. However, those previous levels were with up to 30K new cases per day. If best practices halve the deaths, doubling the infection rate will likely make up that difference. And if Fauci is right and we are heading for triple that rate - look out.
ETA: We set a new record today already, with over 71K new cases and 800+ deaths.
It's all so predictable, it's all so very sad that this could have been avoided except for millions of individuals adopting the same politically partisan approach to this issue as we see displayed day after day here on this website. Ignorance about prevention and ignorance about the fundamental nature of the virus.
Hundreds of thousands of people dead because of nothing more complex that abject ignorance coupled with political partisanship and blind fielty to one very ignorant and selfish man.Last edited by oxmixmudd; 07-11-2020, 01:48 PM.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostYep, this week's cycle for deaths is clearly up. After 3 weeks of steady state/modest decline the impact of the massive surge in cases has taken hold. And given the raw number of daily cases for the last 3 weeks, it will stay up for a while. A 50,000+ per day, 500 will die per day if it stays out of the elderly population. But it won't, it can't. It will be 1000 per day again soon, maybe for the rest of the summer unless this madness stops.
It's all so predictable, it's all so very sad that this could have been avoided except for millions of individuals adopting the same politically partisan approach to this issue as we see displayed day after day here on this website. Ignorance about prevention and ignorance about the fundamental nature of the virus.
Hundreds of thousands of people dead because of nothing more complex that abject ignorance coupled with political partisanship and blind fielty to one very ignorant and selfish man.
And the poll numbers suggest many in America are wising up. He is pretty much down to his core base. It won't be enough. Unless he pulls some serious cheats (which I think we can all expect him to try - it's what he does), he'll be voted out in November and shown the door in January. The mayhem he will wreak between 11/3 and January 20th will be a sight to behold.
And there is a pretty good chance he is going to take the GOP down with him. There are competitive senate seats in states that should NOT be competitive. We may see the kind of Democratic sweep in 2020 that we saw the GOP realize in 2010 - right down to state legislatures - despite the massive gerrymandering and voter suppression the GOP has engaged in since 2010. Hopefully, the Dems will reverse all of the gerrymandering WITHOUT simply implementing their own.Last edited by carpedm9587; 07-11-2020, 03:22 PM.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostWell - hundreds of thousands worldwide - but I don't think we can put all of them at Trump's feet.
What I refer to is 100,000 of the 134,000 that have died, conservatively allowing for the possibility that even a moderately respectable response could have resulted in 30,000 deaths by now, AND I am adding in the 100,000+ that will likely die between now and November of this year per current trends and irresponsible behavior by the Trump administration that has left us with 60,000+ new cases per day. I have no confidence whatsoever we will see any sort of turn towards responsibility dealing with this on the federal level, so I - in fact - believe I am being conservative by limiting it to the 200,000+ range.
But I apologize for not be clear as to how I was arriving a a plural for hundreds of thousands.
The deaths here in the U.S.? THOSE I primarily blame Trump for. His self-serving, myopic decisions and lack of effective leadership have directly lead to the needless deaths of many (most?) of these people.
And the poll numbers suggest many in America are wising up. He is pretty much down to his core base. It won't be enough. Unless he pulls some serious cheats (which I think we can all expect him to try - it's what he does), he'll be voted out in November and shown the door in January. The mayhem he will wreak between 11/3 and January 20th will be a sight to behold.
And there is a pretty good chance he is going to take the GOP down with him. There are competitive senate seats in states that should NOT be competitive. We may see the kind of Democratic sweep in 2020 that we saw the GOP realize in 2010 - right down to state legislatures - despite the massive gerrymandering and voter suppression the GOP has engaged in since 2010. Hopefully, the Dems will reverse all of the gerrymandering WITHOUT simply implementing their own.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostNo - I'm not blaming Trump what anything other than the US
What I refer to is 100,000 of the 134,000 that have died, conservatively allowing for the possibility that even a moderately respectable response could have resulted in 30,000 deaths by now, AND I am adding in the 100,000+ that will likely die between now and November of this year per current trends and irresponsible behavior by the Trump administration that has left us with 60,000+ new cases per day. I have no confidence whatsoever we will see any sort of turn towards responsibility dealing with this on the federal level, so I - in fact - believe I am being conservative by limiting it to the 200,000+ range.
But I apologize for not be clear as to how I was arriving a a plural for hundreds of thousands.
Yep.
The Lincoln Project adds asking us to never ever forget the names of those that have enabled Trump state it quite clearly. I - a man who never voted anything BUT republican prior to 2016 - may well never vote republican again unless that republican publicly disavows any association with Trump or his current GOP cronies, and until the republican leadership itself is fully purged of the current stock.
My wife and I are seriously thinking of submitting an absentee ballot in Vermont, and then going to one of the swing states in late October and volunteering for the Biden campaign to knock on doors, make calls, drive people to the polls, etc. There is little we can do to affect the outcome of the presidential and Senate races in Vermont - but we might be able to help out in one of the swing states.
I wonder if those on the right realize just how mobilized and motivated so many of us are to get Trump out of that office? I have never volunteered for a campaign in my life, but I'm going to do it this year. A couple days ago, I drove past a house that had a campaign-style sign on their front lawn. It wasn't "Biden 2020" or "Trump/Pence 2020," it simply said "Any Functioning Adult 2020." I almost snorted my coffee out my nose!Last edited by carpedm9587; 07-11-2020, 06:01 PM.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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It was inevitable. Fauci is more trusted than Trump - and Fauci has higher approval ratings, and Fauci sometimes corrects Trump - so Fauci has to go.
And, of course, Trump's base will line up against him and defend Trump...as always.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Part of me has sympathy for this man. You shouldn't have to pay for a mistake with your life.
Part of me says "cleaning the gene pool." Idiots like this guy are getting not only themselves killed, but other people as well.
Talk about ambivalence...The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostPart of me has sympathy for this man. You shouldn't have to pay for a mistake with your life.
Part of me says "cleaning the gene pool." Idiots like this guy are getting not only themselves killed, but other people as well.
Talk about ambivalence...
I wonder if those that tried to convince this man it was 'just a hoax' have any regret at all over what the consequences for him and so many thousands more have been.Last edited by oxmixmudd; 07-13-2020, 07:28 AM.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
Comment
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostIt was inevitable. Fauci is more trusted than Trump - and Fauci has higher approval ratings, and Fauci sometimes corrects Trump - so Fauci has to go.
And, of course, Trump's base will line up against him and defend Trump...as always.
It's all just more lies, half truths and gossip aimed at fulfilling the insatiable ego needs of a 3 year old child mind in a 70+ year old man's body that somehow was elected president of this country.Last edited by oxmixmudd; 07-13-2020, 07:46 AM.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
Comment
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostKeep in mind this man is in fact also a victim of the misinformation pushed out to try to support the raw ignorance and narcissism of one man. A victim of the sorts of abject ignorance about the virus we see argued for each and every day on this website.
I wonder if those that tried to convince this man it was 'just a hoax' have any regret at all over what the consequences for him and so many thousands more have been.
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostSparko - both are forms of "attack" on the citizens of this country. One arises from a human enemy - the other from a virological one. Both can be mitigated if the right steps are taken. Both are horrific if allowed to occur without making a reasonable effort to prevent them. Both terminate lives before their natural end.
Death by natural causes is simply nature taking its course. It reflects the fact that we all die eventually. Your comparison is, if you'll excuse me, a little silly.
What you have shown here is that world-o-meters is using language differently than the CDC. They are also using the language differently than standard epidemiology textbooks. I prefer to use the language as it is taught by the experts, rather than as used on any particular website. It is clearer and more consistent.
Feel free to continue to use world-o-meters incorrect language if you wish. I'll try to remember that is your preference. Getting back to the original point, your claim was that more testing lowers the case-specific mortality rate. It doesn't. It merely lowers our perception of it. There is an actual case-specific mortality rate that is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of infections. Early data suggested that was approximately 1%. Subsequent data from locals that have conducted broad testing continues to affirm that number as an average across all ages, but has further defined it by age to have a range of 0.2% for the youngest/healthiest to 14% for the oldest/sickest. All of those numbers are an order of magnitude higher than the flu.
And the current crude estimate of those numbers, derived by dividing the known deaths into the known infections, sits at 4.22% for the U.S. and 4.50% for the world. Those numbers continue to drop as testing expands, but the preliminary curve appears to converge at the predicted 1% level.
And if you read what I posted carefully, I also used the correct language: "case-specific mortality rate"
When we say the flu has a .1% mortality rate we are talking about how many die of those who catch it. Not how many die compared to the number of people in the world.
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Originally posted by Sparko View PostNo, natural causes INCLUDES diseases like cancer, heart disease, etc. It just excludes murder and accidents. So it is more like COVID than your dumb example was.
When discussing the mortality rate of a disease, it has to be in reference to the total number of cases. Just comparing how many died to the total population is meaningless in telling you how deadly the disease is to those who catch it. That's simple logic. I understand you can't admit you are wrong but you are.
When we say the flu has a .1% mortality rate we are talking about how many die of those who catch it. Not how many die compared to the number of people in the world.Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:
go with the flow the river knows . . .
Frank
I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostKeep in mind this man is in fact also a victim of the misinformation pushed out to try to support the raw ignorance and narcissism of one man. A victim of the sorts of abject ignorance about the virus we see argued for each and every day on this website.
I wonder if those that tried to convince this man it was 'just a hoax' have any regret at all over what the consequences for him and so many thousands more have been.
You helped me reduce the "cleaning the gene pool" POV significantly.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by Sparko View PostNo, natural causes INCLUDES diseases like cancer, heart disease, etc. It just excludes murder and accidents. So it is more like COVID than your dumb example was.
Originally posted by Sparko View PostWhen discussing the mortality rate of a disease, it has to be in reference to the total number of cases. Just comparing how many died to the total population is meaningless in telling you how deadly the disease is to those who catch it. That's simple logic. I understand you can't admit you are wrong but you are.
When we say the flu has a .1% mortality rate we are talking about how many die of those who catch it. Not how many die compared to the number of people in the world.
Clearly, if you want to know how deadly a disease is to those who catch it - you want to look at the case-specific mortality rate because the mortality rate alone will not give you that information. My guess is that most outlets assume that if you specify the disease, you are talking about the case-specific mortality rate, so they just truncate it to "mortality rate."The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostI misinterpreted your point, probably because we were talking about diseases. I interpreted "natural causes" as "simple body failure due to old age." But the point stands...people will die. Comparing covid deaths to all deaths is a silly comparison, unless you are discussing the comparative case-specific mortality rate of different diseases. Comparing the needless deaths happening now due to inept leadership is well aligned to the needless deaths that occurred on 911. In both cases you had an antagonist (one conscious, one not) and inept leadership (for 911, multiple departments not sharing information, for Covid-19 the bumbling moron in the oval office).
Sparko - you're beating a dead horse. I will continue to use the language as it is used by the CDC and every epidemiology text/source I have looked at since this epidemic started. I understand you are going to use it the way you want to - and the way a fair number of media outlets do it as well. I will try to remember what you mean when you use the language.
Clearly, if you want to know how deadly a disease is to those who catch it - you want to look at the case-specific mortality rate because the mortality rate alone will not give you that information. My guess is that most outlets assume that if you specify the disease, you are talking about the case-specific mortality rate, so they just truncate it to "mortality rate."
This is simple math. If you want to know what the overall mortality rate of a population of a cause, you would use the deaths from cause / population you are measuring. If you are wanting to know what the mortality rate of say all male adults in the USA of COVID you would divide the number of adult male COVID deaths/male adult population of USA. If you just want to know the mortality rate of COVID-19 of those who catch it, then you would use Number of COVID Deaths/Number of COVID Infections. And the latter is clearly what I was talking about. Which means that the more testing we have done, the more cases we will find that did not require hospitalization and that will lover the mortality rate for COVID-19. If 50% of all people who catch COVID die, then that is worse than if you know that only 1% of those who catch it will die. More testing will reveal more cases where people did not require a hospital.
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