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That's what
- She
Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
- Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)
I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
- Stephen R. Donaldson
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Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post... the flu viruses infect fewer individuals, and no asymptomatic cases...That's what
- She
Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
- Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)
I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
- Stephen R. Donaldson
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostMaybe - but then that benefits the owners of that company - not the employees.
Please back this claim up with some actual data. I am finding nothing to support this claim.
A common mistake for those who do not understand economics and the stock market. The stock market is not the economy nor does it accurately reflect the economy. Generally, it is more in line with the degree of optimism present in the owners of the stocks and bonds. It can crash for no other reason than a major CEO gets sick or dies. It can spike for no other reason than a news story that suggests this or that vertical are poised to rebound or grow. It can move due to the election of a politician, or the announcement of a particularly bad hurricane season. The state of the economy is one of many factors that can influence the market.
You are making the same mistake Trump has made since taking office. About 50% of the country could give a fig if the market is up or down at any given time. It has little/no direct impact on them.
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostSo you're comparing death by natural causes to death by a pandemic that could be contained?
And you think that is meaningful?
I think you need to review the field, Sparko. You can find the terminology explained here.
And a case-specific mortality of 0.1% means that one out of 1,000 who catch it will die from it, not 1 out of 10,000.
When calculating the mortality rate, we need:
The number of actual cases. We need to know the number of actual cases (not merely the reported ones, which are typically only a small portion of the actual ones) that have already had an outcome (positive or negative: recovery or death), not the current cases that still have to resolve (the case sample shall contain zero active cases and include only "closed" cases).
The number of actual deaths related to the closed cases examined above.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-rate/
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And you are correct, 1 in 1000. See? Even you are using the number of cases not the entire population when calculating mortality rate.
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostNote that the two lines on your graph show a temporal shift of approximately two weeks, which is in line with the normal pattern of the viral outbreak. Since the dramatic up-turn in the cases-per-day began around June 17th, it suggests we should see hospitalizations follow suit around the 1st of July. Your graph shows the beginning of that turn as early as 6/24. We would need to see the graph for the last two weeks to see what has happened recently. I don't know the source of your graph so I cannot find a more updated one.
Bottom line is, all of your arguments for how "things have decreased" are about to become moot - the numbers are going bad.
ETA: We are at 30K new cases today already (1:00 PM EDT), with 336 deaths already. Florida is above 11K new cases, 3K cases over yesterdays numbers. Arizona is over 4K new cases. Both states are havens for "snow birds" and heavily populated by those retiring. Texas, California, and Georgia have not yet submitted numbers for today. In fact, 27 states have yet to report ANY numbers for today. My prediction: we are going to set a new record for new cases today and deaths will be near or over 1,000.
Daily Deaths US 07102020.jpg
While I do find it interesting that relatively intelligent people can be led astray into the politically based paranoid schizophrenia surrounding the virus in conservative circles, it is not hard to cure, provided those afflicted are willing to swallow the medicine. All one needs to do to cure it is turn off whatever conservative news source is massaging ones neurons and follow the numbers, the data. Assuming sufficient (high school) math and biology background, the truth emerges very quickly.
*There is a 7 day cycle to reporting covid numbers. The 7 day average essentially removes that variability from the track and gives a true picture of the dynamic state of the progression of the disease in whatever US geographic area is being analyzed.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by Sparko View Posthaving a job doesn't benefit the employees?
Originally posted by Sparko View PostMost people don't continue working at the local flip and sip but actually end up working at a real company which offers things like 401Ks. They don't all take advantage of it, but it is there. Unless someone works at a place that offers a pension (usually government jobs) they will eventually want to save for retirement, and the only way to really do that is with 401K IRA plans.
Your emphasis on the "stock market" demonstrates a narrowness of vision that ignores the reality for a huge block of Americans.
Originally posted by Sparko View PostSure, Carp. That is why we ended up with a Great Depression 100 years ago. Because the stock market has nothing to to with the economy.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by carpedm9587 View PostAgain - do you have data to support the assertion that changes in the stock market impact who does and does not have a job? A significant percentage of the workforce does not work for publicly traded companies. Even those who DO work for publicly traded companies, the value of the stock is within the secondary market and reflects the perceived value of the company to the stock holders. At best, you can make the claim that a company value is impacted if they own their own stock and that value climbs. But, again, the primary benefit is to the shareholders, not the employees.
Sparko - you are making wild claims with absolutely no data to back it up. The data suggests that on 25% of people over age 22 work for companies that do not offer a 401K or any other form of plan.
You have built a strawman and are handily defeating it. Unfortunately, it has nothing to do with the argument made. I said the stock market is NOT the economy. I didn't say the stock market has NOTHING TO DO WITH the economy. Indeed, I pointed out that the economy is one of several factors that influence what happens in the stock market. And the influence can happen in reverse as well: what happens in the stock market can influence the economy. This is economics 101, Sparko. My point is that you are drawing an equivalence where none exists - and putting emphasis on the wrong element: the stock market rather than the economy.Last edited by Sparko; 07-10-2020, 03:30 PM.
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Originally posted by Sparko View PostYou were the one comparing a terrorist attack with a disease and thought that was meaningful. I just responded in kind.
Death by natural causes is simply nature taking its course. It reflects the fact that we all die eventually. Your comparison is, if you'll excuse me, a little silly.
Originally posted by Sparko View Post------------
When calculating the mortality rate, we need:
The number of actual cases. We need to know the number of actual cases (not merely the reported ones, which are typically only a small portion of the actual ones) that have already had an outcome (positive or negative: recovery or death), not the current cases that still have to resolve (the case sample shall contain zero active cases and include only "closed" cases).
The number of actual deaths related to the closed cases examined above.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-rate/
------------
Feel free to continue to use world-o-meters incorrect language if you wish. I'll try to remember that is your preference. Getting back to the original point, your claim was that more testing lowers the case-specific mortality rate. It doesn't. It merely lowers our perception of it. There is an actual case-specific mortality rate that is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of infections. Early data suggested that was approximately 1%. Subsequent data from locals that have conducted broad testing continues to affirm that number as an average across all ages, but has further defined it by age to have a range of 0.2% for the youngest/healthiest to 14% for the oldest/sickest. All of those numbers are an order of magnitude higher than the flu.
And the current crude estimate of those numbers, derived by dividing the known deaths into the known infections, sits at 4.22% for the U.S. and 4.50% for the world. Those numbers continue to drop as testing expands, but the preliminary curve appears to converge at the predicted 1% level.
Originally posted by Sparko View PostAnd you are correct, 1 in 1000. See? Even you are using the number of cases not the entire population when calculating mortality rate.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostIndeed. The expected delay in rise was lengthened a bit by the shift towards a younger demographic in places like california and florida with the lower mortality of younger victims, but that delay is over and the rise has begun. The past two days we clocked in at around 1000 deaths per day. The 7 day average* show a turn up. We are adding covid cases at 2x the rate we were when we began the first shutdown. Deaths are going to rise even with the shift in demographic. Further, that shift in demographic is only a temporary shift. They have parents and grandparents.
[ATTACH=CONFIG]46494[/ATTACH]
While I do find it interesting that relatively intelligent people can be led astray into the politically based paranoid schizophrenia surrounding the virus in conservative circles, it is not hard to cure, provided those afflicted are willing to swallow the medicine. All one needs to do to cure it is turn off whatever conservative news source is massaging ones neurons and follow the numbers, the data. Assuming sufficient (high school) math and biology background, the truth emerges very quickly.
*There is a 7 day cycle to reporting covid numbers. The 7 day average essentially removes that variability from the track and gives a true picture of the dynamic state of the progression of the disease in whatever US geographic area is being analyzed.
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Originally posted by Sparko View PostThe stock market REFLECTS how well the economy is doing. If the businesses are not doing well, their stocks drop. If the fortune 500 are doing lousy, then companies that depend on their services also suffer, it is all interconnected. You are putting the cart before the horse.
Originally posted by Sparko View PostUm, that's 75% that do.
Hence my claim: the stock market means little/nothing to the majority of American workers. They primarily care about their paycheck, their hours, and what few benefits they have remaining - especially healthcare. They may come to care about it when they are older - but at any given time, over half the country simply doesn't care what is happening in the market. It means nothing to them.
Originally posted by Sparko View PostExcept for rare instances, like this COVID causing the stock market to drop when the economy was still doing relatively well, the stock market doesn't drive the economy, it reflects the economy. If the economy is lousy, in all likelyhood the stock market will be doing badly. But the stock market can also affect the economy, because like in 1929, if the rich people all lose their money and go out of business because of a stock market crash, then that will have a feedback on the economy as everyone starts losing their jobs.Last edited by carpedm9587; 07-10-2020, 03:54 PM.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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Originally posted by mikewhitney View PostDon't forget to shutdown all doctors telling you the fast-acting treatments used on those who have symptoms of coronavirus. Doctors are acting against public policy when provide these effective and proven treatments. Your slogan can be "no more treatments. give us covid."
Anecdotal reports, unlike true scientific studies of a population, can't differentiate between a patient actually helped or hurt by a drug and a patient that otherwise independently of the drug would just have gotten better or gotten worse.
Flawed studies also fail to make the cut, like the one that has created the latest political faux pas wrt hydroxychlorquine:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/08/...pay-the-price/
From the article:
This latest boondogle is not a randomized study, further, it mixes use of hydroxychloroquine with steroids which actually DO help, biasing the result.
Now if you don't understand the problem, then you, like Trump and Navarro (the trade advisor pushing for a change based on this 'result'), are wholly unqualified to accept the results of this study over the other 3 mentioned previous studies which showed no benefit.My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1
If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26
This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19
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Originally posted by oxmixmudd View PostThere you go. Crazy paranoid conspiracy theory number 1. competent doctors and scientists don't just randomly prescribe unproven therapeutics urged on my politically motivated sources. To this point, there has been no effective and proven treatment that withstood an actual scientific study of the effect of the medication with the exception of remdesivir. Studies of hydroxychloroquine have shown it to be more harmful that helpful, especially in patients with severe symptoms.
Anecdotal reports, unlike true scientific studies of a population, can't differentiate between a patient actually helped or hurt by a drug and a patient that otherwise independently of the drug would just have gotten better or gotten worse.
Flawed studies also fail to make the cut, like the one that has created the latest political faux pas wrt hydroxychlorquine:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/08/...pay-the-price/
From the article:
This latest boondogle is not a randomized study, further, it mixes use of hydroxychloroquine with steroids which actually DO help, biasing the result.
Now if you don't understand the problem, then you, like Trump and Navarro (the trade advisor pushing for a change based on this 'result'), are wholly unqualified to accept the results of this study over the other 3 mentioned previous studies which showed no benefit.
I suspect all of the "best practices" that have been found will help to keep the number of daily deaths from rising to their previous levels. However, those previous levels were with up to 30K new cases per day. If best practices halve the deaths, doubling the infection rate will likely make up that difference. And if Fauci is right and we are heading for triple that rate - look out.
ETA: We set a new record today already, with over 71K new cases and 800+ deaths.Last edited by carpedm9587; 07-10-2020, 07:04 PM.The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King
I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas
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