Page 215 of 387 FirstFirst ... 115165205213214215216217225265315 ... LastLast
Results 2,141 to 2,150 of 3867

Thread: Coronavirus Outbreak...

  1. #2141
    tWebber little_monkey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Faith
    unbeliever
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    232
    Amen (Given)
    5
    Amen (Received)
    54
    Quote Originally Posted by Roy View Post
    Such a government would have a vested interest in keeping the numbers artificially high, because that would justify increased taxes and greater government control over the people.
    I don't agree with that assessment. Authoritarian leaders don't tolerate criticism as that is taken as a challenge to the competency of their leadership. They also tend to see the medias as the enemy of the people. They demand total loyalty, and when they address the public, it's all about them... sounds familiar!?

  2. #2142
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Maryland
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    8,415
    Amen (Given)
    692
    Amen (Received)
    1995
    Sadly, the potential downturn we thought we saw in the US does appear to have been a statistical anomaly, though the log curve is still bending down a bit (#case, not #deaths).

    log cases US 04032020.jpg

    New York now has as many cases as the entire US less than a week ago.

    The US has almost a full 1/4 of the worlds cases.

    Our mortality, once in the low 1%, has now crept up to 2.55%. This at a time when increased testing should be driving it down. This is because the log death curve is till basically a straight line.

    log deaths US 04032020.jpg

    At the current cases growth rate, we will see 500,000 cases in 1 week. 1,000,000 in 2.

    At the current death growth rate we will see 24,000 deaths in 1 week, 100,000 in 2. So based on case growth and a 2.5% mortality, we should soon see the log deaths curve bend down. Otherwise we are headed for mortalities more in line with Spain, France, or Italy - 5 to 10%.


    Starting late chasing an exponential bomb is a hard hare to catch ...
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 04-03-2020 at 08:49 AM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  3. #2143
    tWebber little_monkey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Faith
    unbeliever
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    232
    Amen (Given)
    5
    Amen (Received)
    54
    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    Sadly, the potential downturn we thought we saw in the US does appear to have been a statistical anomaly, though the log curve is still bending down a bit (#case, not #deaths).

    .
    The latest numbers I got:

    March 31: 24,742 new cases and 912 new deaths
    April 1: 26,473 new cases and 1,049 new deaths
    April 2: 29,874 new cases and 968 new deaths

    The # of new cases is still accelerating but # of new deaths seem to have slowed down. Anomaly, hopefully not...we might see a turnaround. The next 2-3 days will clarify.

  4. #2144
    tWebber Darth Executor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Kazakhstan
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    7,040
    Amen (Given)
    1813
    Amen (Received)
    2664
    Quote Originally Posted by little_monkey View Post
    They also tend to see the medias as the enemy of the people.
    This is nonsense. Authoritarians OWN the media.
    "As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths." Isaiah 3:12

    There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

  5. Amen One Bad Pig amen'd this post.
  6. #2145
    tWebber
    Join Date
    May 2017
    Faith
    Agnostic
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    4,209
    Amen (Given)
    1262
    Amen (Received)
    543
    Quote Originally Posted by Darth Executor View Post
    This is nonsense. Authoritarians OWN the media.
    Anything to support your claim? And remember you did speak in general terms about "the media" not some particular media source.
    "That is the little thing, the small thing, which Trump demands of his followers: To call hot cold. To call black white. To call wrong right." Michael Gerson

  7. #2146
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2017
    Faith
    Atheist
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    14,487
    Amen (Given)
    32
    Amen (Received)
    1400
    Quote Originally Posted by Roy View Post
    Maybe he thinks federal stockpiles are for use in Washington DC, Puerto Rico, Guam and for foreign aid.
    Well - that would account for all of the people who can benefit from the federal stockpile that DON'T live in states. Apparently that's what we stockpiled at the federal level for...
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  8. #2147
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    SoCal!!!
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    2,661
    Amen (Given)
    374
    Amen (Received)
    947
    Quote Originally Posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    Sadly, the potential downturn we thought we saw in the US does appear to have been a statistical anomaly, though the log curve is still bending down a bit (#case, not #deaths).

    ...

    New York now has as many cases as the entire US less than a week ago.

    The US has almost a full 1/4 of the worlds cases.

    Our mortality, once in the low 1%, has now crept up to 2.55%. This at a time when increased testing should be driving it down. This is because the log death curve is till basically a straight line.

    ...

    At the current cases growth rate, we will see 500,000 cases in 1 week. 1,000,000 in 2.

    At the current death growth rate we will see 24,000 deaths in 1 week, 100,000 in 2. So based on case growth and a 2.5% mortality, we should soon see the log deaths curve bend down. Otherwise we are headed for mortalities more in line with Spain, France, or Italy - 5 to 10%.


    Starting late chasing an exponential bomb is a hard hare to catch ...

    Statistics can be untrustworthy in many ways. The number of cases is not important but only the number of hospitalized cases.

    If the numbers actually are increasing, this means that there is just more testing or that the lockdown is ineffective to do anything. There should not be any significant increase of non-hospitalization cases if people are pretty much in lockdown.

    Italy's death rates to COVID19 have to be reduced by 88% due to the improper ascription of deaths to COVID19 which actually are people with pre-existing conditions that normally increase their chance of dying.

    We have to start using common sense here.

    One probable reason for high death rates attributed to COVID-19 in the US is that doctors are supposed to code in COVID-19 if the person had a positive test for COVID-19 (even if died from a car crash, for example) or is suspected that the person could have tested positive for COVID-19 or that COVID-19 was suspect in contributing to the death. This leads to inflated numbers that will possibly be sorted out in the future.
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 04-03-2020 at 11:29 AM.

  9. Amen Mountain Man, NorrinRadd amen'd this post.
  10. #2148
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2017
    Faith
    Atheist
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    14,487
    Amen (Given)
    32
    Amen (Received)
    1400
    Quote Originally Posted by mikewhitney View Post
    Statistics can be untrustworthy in many ways. The number of cases is not important but only the number of hospitalized cases.

    If the numbers actually are increasing, this means that there is just more testing or that the lockdown is ineffective to do anything. There should not be any significant increase of non-hospitalization cases if people are pretty much in lockdown.

    Italy's death rates to COVID19 have to be reduced by 88% due to the improper ascription of deaths to COVID19 which actually are people with pre-existing conditions that normally increase their chance of dying.

    We have to start using common sense here.

    One probable reason for high death rates attributed to COVID-19 in the US is that doctors are supposed to code in COVID-19 if the person had a positive test for COVID-19 (even if died from a car crash, for example) or is suspected that the person could have tested positive for COVID-19 or that COVID-19 was suspect in contributing to the death. This leads to inflated numbers that will possibly be sorted out in the future.
    I have to admit that I am amazed at the effort some people will put into keeping their heads in the sand as long as possible. In the case of climate change, the cost will be born by our children and future generations. In the case of Covid-19 - the cost will be far more immediate.

    Oh well...evolution in action. Down the road from us there is a gorge and someone dies in it every year or so. Usually, they are drinking/partying and decide the warnings don't apply to them and they can survive a swim in its waters. A movement started years ago to fill the gorge with rock and eliminate the hazard. As blunt as it sounds, some of us consider it a form of "cleaning the gene pool" and, fortunately, we prevailed. The gorge remains pristine, sullied only by a sign listing the people who have died there (as a warning), and it still has to be updated every year or so.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  11. #2149
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    SoCal!!!
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    2,661
    Amen (Given)
    374
    Amen (Received)
    947
    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    I have to admit that I am amazed at the effort some people will put into keeping their heads in the sand as long as possible. In the case of climate change, the cost will be born by our children and future generations. In the case of Covid-19 - the cost will be far more immediate.

    Oh well...evolution in action. Down the road from us there is a gorge and someone dies in it every year or so. Usually, they are drinking/partying and decide the warnings don't apply to them and they can survive a swim in its waters. A movement started years ago to fill the gorge with rock and eliminate the hazard. As blunt as it sounds, some of us consider it a form of "cleaning the gene pool" and, fortunately, we prevailed. The gorge remains pristine, sullied only by a sign listing the people who have died there (as a warning), and it still has to be updated every year or so.
    I think this is the first time you have had part of a post that sounds reasonable. I too am amazed at people putting their heads in the sand. Wake up. Figure out what the true details are -- which is difficult when the mainstream media lies.
    Last edited by mikewhitney; 04-03-2020 at 11:49 AM.

  12. Amen Mountain Man amen'd this post.
  13. #2150
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2017
    Faith
    Atheist
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    14,487
    Amen (Given)
    32
    Amen (Received)
    1400
    So this seems to me to be a disaster waiting to happen. The U.S.S. Comfort is the hospital ship the military docked in NYC. It is not intended to care for coronavirus patients because it has an open-ward structure and is not set up to isolate patients. It is there to offload the OTHER patients hospitals deal with so the hospitals can focus on coronavirus.

    Unfortunately, the process of being screened to go to the ship is arduous and has included a coronavirus screening: a patient has to test negative for the virus before being admitted to the ship. As a result, the ship is currently only caring for 20 people. To streamline things, they are changing the onboarding requirements: they will now only check temperature and complete a questionnaire.

    It's a tough situation: screen thoroughly and you maximize coronavirus protection but minimize the number of patients being admitted to the 1,000-patient facility. Screen lightly and you compromise coronavirus protection but maximize the number of patients admitted. I'm not sure I would want to be making that call. Meanwhile, I won't be surprised to hear the ship has been compromised by the coronavirus.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •