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  • Originally posted by Roy View Post
    Maybe he thinks federal stockpiles are for use in Washington DC, Puerto Rico, Guam and for foreign aid.
    Well - that would account for all of the people who can benefit from the federal stockpile that DON'T live in states. Apparently that's what we stockpiled at the federal level for...
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

    Comment


    • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
      Sadly, the potential downturn we thought we saw in the US does appear to have been a statistical anomaly, though the log curve is still bending down a bit (#case, not #deaths).

      ...

      New York now has as many cases as the entire US less than a week ago.

      The US has almost a full 1/4 of the worlds cases.

      Our mortality, once in the low 1%, has now crept up to 2.55%. This at a time when increased testing should be driving it down. This is because the log death curve is till basically a straight line.

      ...

      At the current cases growth rate, we will see 500,000 cases in 1 week. 1,000,000 in 2.

      At the current death growth rate we will see 24,000 deaths in 1 week, 100,000 in 2. So based on case growth and a 2.5% mortality, we should soon see the log deaths curve bend down. Otherwise we are headed for mortalities more in line with Spain, France, or Italy - 5 to 10%.


      Starting late chasing an exponential bomb is a hard hare to catch ...

      Statistics can be untrustworthy in many ways. The number of cases is not important but only the number of hospitalized cases.

      If the numbers actually are increasing, this means that there is just more testing or that the lockdown is ineffective to do anything. There should not be any significant increase of non-hospitalization cases if people are pretty much in lockdown.

      Italy's death rates to COVID19 have to be reduced by 88% due to the improper ascription of deaths to COVID19 which actually are people with pre-existing conditions that normally increase their chance of dying.

      We have to start using common sense here.

      One probable reason for high death rates attributed to COVID-19 in the US is that doctors are supposed to code in COVID-19 if the person had a positive test for COVID-19 (even if died from a car crash, for example) or is suspected that the person could have tested positive for COVID-19 or that COVID-19 was suspect in contributing to the death. This leads to inflated numbers that will possibly be sorted out in the future.
      Last edited by mikewhitney; 04-03-2020, 01:29 PM.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
        Statistics can be untrustworthy in many ways. The number of cases is not important but only the number of hospitalized cases.

        If the numbers actually are increasing, this means that there is just more testing or that the lockdown is ineffective to do anything. There should not be any significant increase of non-hospitalization cases if people are pretty much in lockdown.

        Italy's death rates to COVID19 have to be reduced by 88% due to the improper ascription of deaths to COVID19 which actually are people with pre-existing conditions that normally increase their chance of dying.

        We have to start using common sense here.

        One probable reason for high death rates attributed to COVID-19 in the US is that doctors are supposed to code in COVID-19 if the person had a positive test for COVID-19 (even if died from a car crash, for example) or is suspected that the person could have tested positive for COVID-19 or that COVID-19 was suspect in contributing to the death. This leads to inflated numbers that will possibly be sorted out in the future.
        I have to admit that I am amazed at the effort some people will put into keeping their heads in the sand as long as possible. In the case of climate change, the cost will be born by our children and future generations. In the case of Covid-19 - the cost will be far more immediate.

        Oh well...evolution in action. Down the road from us there is a gorge and someone dies in it every year or so. Usually, they are drinking/partying and decide the warnings don't apply to them and they can survive a swim in its waters. A movement started years ago to fill the gorge with rock and eliminate the hazard. As blunt as it sounds, some of us consider it a form of "cleaning the gene pool" and, fortunately, we prevailed. The gorge remains pristine, sullied only by a sign listing the people who have died there (as a warning), and it still has to be updated every year or so.
        The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

        I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

        Comment


        • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
          I have to admit that I am amazed at the effort some people will put into keeping their heads in the sand as long as possible. In the case of climate change, the cost will be born by our children and future generations. In the case of Covid-19 - the cost will be far more immediate.

          Oh well...evolution in action. Down the road from us there is a gorge and someone dies in it every year or so. Usually, they are drinking/partying and decide the warnings don't apply to them and they can survive a swim in its waters. A movement started years ago to fill the gorge with rock and eliminate the hazard. As blunt as it sounds, some of us consider it a form of "cleaning the gene pool" and, fortunately, we prevailed. The gorge remains pristine, sullied only by a sign listing the people who have died there (as a warning), and it still has to be updated every year or so.
          I think this is the first time you have had part of a post that sounds reasonable. I too am amazed at people putting their heads in the sand. Wake up. Figure out what the true details are -- which is difficult when the mainstream media lies.
          Last edited by mikewhitney; 04-03-2020, 01:49 PM.

          Comment


          • So this seems to me to be a disaster waiting to happen. The U.S.S. Comfort is the hospital ship the military docked in NYC. It is not intended to care for coronavirus patients because it has an open-ward structure and is not set up to isolate patients. It is there to offload the OTHER patients hospitals deal with so the hospitals can focus on coronavirus.

            Unfortunately, the process of being screened to go to the ship is arduous and has included a coronavirus screening: a patient has to test negative for the virus before being admitted to the ship. As a result, the ship is currently only caring for 20 people. To streamline things, they are changing the onboarding requirements: they will now only check temperature and complete a questionnaire.

            It's a tough situation: screen thoroughly and you maximize coronavirus protection but minimize the number of patients being admitted to the 1,000-patient facility. Screen lightly and you compromise coronavirus protection but maximize the number of patients admitted. I'm not sure I would want to be making that call. Meanwhile, I won't be surprised to hear the ship has been compromised by the coronavirus.
            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

            Comment


            • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
              I think this is the first time you have had part of a post that sounds reasonable. I too am amazed at people putting their heads in the sand. Wake up. Figure out what the true details are -- which is difficult when the mainstream media lies.
              Sorry, Mike, but I don't subscribe to the "MSM Bad!" mantra. I do scan as many outlets as I can to filter for inevitable bias, and am careful with sensationalism, recognizing that it exists as a function of 24-hour news outlets coupled with an advertiser-driven model. But I retain confidence in the majority of our fourth estate - despite the constant yammer from the far right (and increasingly center-right) of "MSM Bad!"

              We started this pandemic with most people downplaying it. As the scope of the pandemic has come more into focus, and countries like Italy and Spain (which managed it badly) have seen 10+% mortality of documented cases while countries like S. Korea and Germany (which are managing it well) see closer to 1% mortality, more and more have dropped their "oh you're just another chicken little" act and begun to address the issues. The rest? Well...if it's a non-issue, by all means head out and mix/mingle with friends. As with the gorge - all it means is the gene pool will be that much cleaner.

              Meanwhile - the U.S. is clearly on a track to be more like Italy and Spain and less like S.Korea and Germany.
              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

              Comment


              • So much for the (rather obvious) "nobody expected this" lie. Apparently - some people within the administration did expect it, and it was even part of the discussion at a 2019 BioDefense summit.

                The man just cannot seem to stand in front of a podium or microphone without lying....
                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                Comment


                • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                  So this seems to me to be a disaster waiting to happen. The U.S.S. Comfort is the hospital ship the military docked in NYC. It is not intended to care for coronavirus patients because it has an open-ward structure and is not set up to isolate patients. It is there to offload the OTHER patients hospitals deal with so the hospitals can focus on coronavirus.

                  Unfortunately, the process of being screened to go to the ship is arduous and has included a coronavirus screening: a patient has to test negative for the virus before being admitted to the ship. As a result, the ship is currently only caring for 20 people. To streamline things, they are changing the onboarding requirements: they will now only check temperature and complete a questionnaire.

                  It's a tough situation: screen thoroughly and you maximize coronavirus protection but minimize the number of patients being admitted to the 1,000-patient facility. Screen lightly and you compromise coronavirus protection but maximize the number of patients admitted. I'm not sure I would want to be making that call. Meanwhile, I won't be surprised to hear the ship has been compromised by the coronavirus.
                  what happened to the 15 minute test? Seems like that's all you would need to loader her up ...
                  My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                  If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                  This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                    So much for the (rather obvious) "nobody expected this" lie. Apparently - some people within the administration did expect it, and it was even part of the discussion at a 2019 BioDefense summit.

                    The man just cannot seem to stand in front of a podium or microphone without lying....
                    Some people still haven't figured it out yet though ....
                    My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                    If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                    This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                      So this seems to me to be a disaster waiting to happen. The U.S.S. Comfort is the hospital ship the military docked in NYC. It is not intended to care for coronavirus patients because it has an open-ward structure and is not set up to isolate patients. It is there to offload the OTHER patients hospitals deal with so the hospitals can focus on coronavirus.

                      Unfortunately, the process of being screened to go to the ship is arduous and has included a coronavirus screening: a patient has to test negative for the virus before being admitted to the ship. As a result, the ship is currently only caring for 20 people. To streamline things, they are changing the onboarding requirements: they will now only check temperature and complete a questionnaire.

                      It's a tough situation: screen thoroughly and you maximize coronavirus protection but minimize the number of patients being admitted to the 1,000-patient facility. Screen lightly and you compromise coronavirus protection but maximize the number of patients admitted. I'm not sure I would want to be making that call. Meanwhile, I won't be surprised to hear the ship has been compromised by the coronavirus.
                      They should rush them a few of those rapid tests that Abbot developed. Results in 5 minutes.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                        They should rush them a few of those rapid tests that Abbot developed. Results in 5 minutes.
                        Just heard: They are using one of those rapid tests that anyone who wants to get in to see the President has to take before being admitted. Hopefully they are checking the VP, Trump and all those doctors that they all stand next to everyday.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                          So much for the (rather obvious) "nobody expected this" lie. Apparently - some people within the administration did expect it, and it was even part of the discussion at a 2019 BioDefense summit.

                          The man just cannot seem to stand in front of a podium or microphone without lying....
                          But Trump was just listening to the experts!

                          Dr. Fauci Told Newsmax In Jan. Coronavirus ‘is not a major threat to the people of the United States’

                          Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and one of the lead White House Coronavirus Task Force members, is on record telling Newsmax in January that the coronavirus was “not a major threat.”

                          https://twitter.com/newsmax/status/1...rc=twsrc%5Etfw
                          Last edited by seer; 04-03-2020, 02:44 PM.
                          Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

                          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                            So much for the (rather obvious) "nobody expected this" lie. Apparently - some people within the administration did expect it, and it was even part of the discussion at a 2019 BioDefense summit.

                            The man just cannot seem to stand in front of a podium or microphone without lying....
                            oh please.

                            The article you link to makes it clear they were not expecting the coronavirus, they were some people at a conference on biodefense who said what keeps them up at night were pandemic flus. That's their cubby hole. They were speaking generically.

                            "Of course, the thing that people ask: 'What keeps you most up at night in the biodefense world?' Pandemic flu, of course. I think everyone in this room probably shares that concern," Azar said, before listing off efforts to mitigate the impact of flu outbreaks.


                            If you want to blame someone for Trump being slow to respond, blame the democrats who were in full Impeachment mode the entire month of January.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                              oh please.

                              The article you link to makes it clear they were not expecting the coronavirus, they were some people at a conference on biodefense who said what keeps them up at night were pandemic flus. That's their cubby hole. They were speaking generically.

                              "Of course, the thing that people ask: 'What keeps you most up at night in the biodefense world?' Pandemic flu, of course. I think everyone in this room probably shares that concern," Azar said, before listing off efforts to mitigate the impact of flu outbreaks.


                              If you want to blame someone for Trump being slow to respond, blame the democrats who were in full Impeachment mode the entire month of January.
                              There is about 50% valid in that excuse and about 50% invalid. One could believe it was a distraction and could have hampered him to a certain extent.

                              One can not believe that it is THE reason for the poor response - we have ample text spoken by trump at various briefings over that period to make clear he considered it of little or no consequence. He was buying into conspiracy theories about it, and he was not listening to experts about much of anything, including this.

                              And then of course there is all of February and the first part of March where he was still down playing it and dragging his feet.

                              This is just excuse making. We have what he said about this on record. For those that are willing to let historical records of what he did guide their thinking about this, it is clear Donald Trump being classic Donald Trump is the reason Donald Trump was slow to respond to this.
                              My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                              If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                              This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by carpedmprig View Post
                                So much for the (rather obvious) "nobody expected this" lie. Apparently - some people within the administration did expect it, and it was even part of the discussion at a 2019 BioDefense summit.

                                The man just cannot seem to stand in front of a podium or microphone without lying....
                                And you guys can't seem to stop twisting everything Trump says just so you can yell, "ORANGE MAN BAD! " at every opportunity.

                                What Azar said at the bio-defense summit: "What keeps you most up at night in the biodefense world?' Pandemic flu, of course. I think everyone in this room probably shares that concern."

                                And here's what Trump said: "Nobody knew there'd be a pandemic or an epidemic of this proportion. Nobody has ever seen anything like this before."

                                I emphasized the important context. Note that the two statements are not contradictory or mutually exclusive. This point is even made in the CNN story which quotes someone identified only as a senior administration official: "It is not inconsistent to acknowledge the threat posed by pandemics and posture the government to respond, and also acknowledge that this is a new or never seen before virus that came out of nowhere and was initially covered up by the Chinese Communist Party." (Naturally, this is buried 8 paragraphs below the misleading headline, so perhaps you didn't see it.)

                                Nice try, carpe. Now don't you have some "SCARY! " numbers and projections to whoop and holler about?
                                Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                                But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                                Than a fool in the eyes of God


                                From "Fools Gold" by Petra

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