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Thread: Coronavirus Outbreak...

  1. #3951
    God bless the USA. Ack!! Bill the Cat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    So we are well on our way into a resurgence. Contrary to many claims, this is not the "second wave." The data shows that this is simply a continuation of the first wave that was never brought completely under control. The 10-day running average of new confirmed infections per day peaked at 31,851 on April 12. From there is began a torturously slow descent until it hit a low point of 21,441 per day on June 9th (3 weeks ago). NOte that the descent never saw us drop below two thirds of the previous peak. It then took ten days for it to rise by 3,739 to to 25,180 on June 19th. In the next 9 days it rose by an additional 11,892 to reach an all-time high of 37,072 yesterday. Remember that this is a 10-day running average, so it means that we have averaged 37,072 new cases every day for the last 10 days.

    The death rate has remained low. The 10-day running average for new deaths peaked on April 23rd, 9 days after the peak on confirmed new infections. That is in line with epidemiological predictions. The 10-day low-point (so far) happened on June 22 at 585. Last week it climbed to 669 before the Saturday and Sunday (yesterday) numbers brought it back to 592. So, since hitting the base they've been essentially flat. Frankly, I had expected to see more of a climb by now, but there are a couple of factors that may be conspiring to hold the numbers down, for now. The first is that there is a higher proportion of young people being infected now than before, and they will have a lower death rate than the older people who were infected earlier. They will also, generally, take longer to die. The second is simply experience: after managing tens of thousands of cases, some best practices have emerged that are inevitably going to reduce the mortality of the disease. My best guess is that we will see deaths climb again in the coming week, but I suspect they will not climb to the levels we saw in April unless the infection rate grows precipitously. If we start seeing 60-70K new cases per day, the death rate will likely begin to vie with the April numbers.

    And still the Trump administration is doing most things wrong. Holding rallies - down-playing social distancing and use of masks (until recently), and still downplaying the importance of testing - leaving us largely guessing about the enemy being fought. If Trump were a WWII general, when asked "shouldn't we do some reconnaissance?" he would reply "I think reconnaissance is overrated - and it's a two-edged sword. Just send the men in!"

    ETA: And I think we can lay to rest the "it will diminish when the weather gets warmer" claim. That clearly is not happening, and we are almost into July.
    WHERE are the new cases happening? In areas that were not hard hit at the beginning, right?

  2. #3952
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    WHERE are the new cases happening? In areas that were not hard hit at the beginning, right?
    Mostly. Just as the first wave started at different times in different countries, it started at different times in different states. However, by mid March, AFAICT, every state in the union was reporting COVID cases. From there the growth varied based on a variety of factors, including population density, steps taken to promote/enforce mask usage and stay-at-home orders, testing and tracing efforts, and so forth.

    Not sure what your question has to do with my post, however.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

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  3. #3953
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    WHERE are the new cases happening? In areas that were not hard hit at the beginning, right?
    No, Most the new cases are in the South and West.
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  4. #3954
    God bless the USA. Ack!! Bill the Cat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    Mostly. Just as the first wave started at different times in different countries, it started at different times in different states. However, by mid March, AFAICT, every state in the union was reporting COVID cases. From there the growth varied based on a variety of factors, including population density, steps taken to promote/enforce mask usage and stay-at-home orders, testing and tracing efforts, and so forth.

    Not sure what your question has to do with my post, however.
    Just curious how nations that basically shut down are going to handle resurgence when they open back up. Seeing how the areas that didn't have it bad at first are now getting it, I can only imagine how an isolated place will deal with it once it hits there.

  5. #3955
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    Just curious how nations that basically shut down are going to handle resurgence when they open back up. Seeing how the areas that didn't have it bad at first are now getting it, I can only imagine how an isolated place will deal with it once it hits there.
    Countries that have fought back the underlying infection rate ample testing and sufficient contact tracing capability should be able to maintain their status if their population maintains basic distancing protocols and mask wearing. That's the point.

    But you have to get to that point first and then be ever vigilant there after. This country is hampered on multiple fronts ( all of them ideological or sourced in ignorance) in terms of reaching a sustainable suppression of the virus.
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  6. Amen shunyadragon amen'd this post.
  7. #3956
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    Just curious how nations that basically shut down are going to handle resurgence when they open back up. Seeing how the areas that didn't have it bad at first are now getting it, I can only imagine how an isolated place will deal with it once it hits there.
    The science tells us that, unless a country has completely eradicated the virus and then maintains closed borders, the virus will continue to resurge until we have a vaccine. We can slow this process to a crawl if we all cooperate and take social distancing and wearing masks seriously. To whatever degree we refuse to do that, we will contribute to the corresponding resurgence of the virus.

    The virus doesn't care about politics. It doesn't care about left vs. right. It will simply follow its genetic programming. It will spread according to its ease of transmission moderated by the degree to which people socially distance and wear protective masks. People will die in proportion to its lethality moderated by our increasing understanding of effective treatment options.

    Even when we achieve "herd immunity," the virus will continue to do what the virus does. Herd immunity does not mean people don't get it. It means the virus can no longer grow exponentially. Each infected person infects, on average, fewer than one other person. But the person he does get infected will still have the same probability of death, as a function of their age and current health.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  8. #3957
    God bless the USA. Ack!! Bill the Cat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    The science tells us that, unless a country has completely eradicated the virus and then maintains closed borders, the virus will continue to resurge until we have a vaccine. We can slow this process to a crawl if we all cooperate and take social distancing and wearing masks seriously. To whatever degree we refuse to do that, we will contribute to the corresponding resurgence of the virus.

    The virus doesn't care about politics. It doesn't care about left vs. right. It will simply follow its genetic programming. It will spread according to its ease of transmission moderated by the degree to which people socially distance and wear protective masks. People will die in proportion to its lethality moderated by our increasing understanding of effective treatment options.

    Even when we achieve "herd immunity," the virus will continue to do what the virus does. Herd immunity does not mean people don't get it. It means the virus can no longer grow exponentially. Each infected person infects, on average, fewer than one other person. But the person he does get infected will still have the same probability of death, as a function of their age and current health.
    SO, are you saying that we should wear masks and social distance until a vaccine is developed, tested, and taken by the population? How long do you think that will take?


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  9. #3958
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill the Cat View Post
    SO, are you saying that we should wear masks and social distance until a vaccine is developed, tested, and taken by the population? How long do you think that will take?
    Yes. The initial estimates for a vaccine was 12-18 months. That was in January, so we are 5 months into that. Presumably, we're looking at another 7-13 months before we have a vaccine.

    There is a basic logic about masks, BTC, and it has nothing to do with left, right, or center. It has nothing to do with politics at all.

    FACT: there is a significant occurrence of asymptomatic carriers with the SARS Coronavirus 2 (the virus that causes Covid-19).

    FACT: If a person has not been tested for antibodies, or have had a confirmed case of COVID-19 and recovered, they cannot know whether or not they are one of these asymptomatic carriers.

    FACT: If a person goes out without a mask, and they are an asymptomatic carrier, they significantly increase the probability of infecting someone else. Every time they breathe, cough, or sneeze they are sending aerosolized bits of the virus out into the environment where someone else can (and eventually will) come into contact with them.

    So...if a person is going out and about without a mask, especially if they are going out for trivial reasons, they are essentially playing Russian Roulette - but they are doing it with the lives of other people rather than their own.

    Since there is a simple means for preventing this at their disposal, if they do not avail themselves of it and someone contracts the virus from that person and dies as a result, that person is guilty of negligent homicide at the best, and murder at the worst. It does not matter if they are ever caught, or convicted, or if they ever even find out whether or not someone died from the virus because of their stubbornness, arrogance, and selfishness. If someone does indeed die as a result - the person wandering around without the mask is guilty. They took a life - or caused a life to end - because of their thoughtlessness.

    If you (or anyone) has been walking around for some period of time without a mask without knowing that you (or they) are immune - you (or they) may have already killed someone.

    Think about it.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  10. Amen oxmixmudd amen'd this post.
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    tWebber firstfloor's Avatar
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    This could be a moment for profound change; dump Trump, dump the Republican Party, dump the Christian Right, dump the cruelty of Capitalism:

    Eddie Glaude Jr. is one of America's preeminent scholars and the author of a new book about the work of James Baldwin and how it relates to the perilous times we live in today. He and Michael discuss race, capitalism, despair, hope, Baldwin, and how to ensure that changes in society are not just superficial marketing exercises, but real and substantive.
    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcas...2-771c41ddaf43
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    tWebber Roy's Avatar
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    The USA had 50,000 new cases yesterday.

    The 7-day average, which was gradually dropping from 30,000 per day to 20,00 per day, with most days being below that rolling average, has now doubled again to 40,000 per day in the last week, with every day this week being above the previous average.

    There has been an increase in testing, but not enough nor rapidly enough to explain this increase. Also, the rise is geographically diverse.

    Previously the expected total number of fatalities were around 180,000 by October. That's beginning to look wildly optimistic. It's extremely worrying.
    Last edited by Roy; 07-02-2020 at 01:49 AM.
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