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  • Originally posted by simplicio View Post
    Hide the wimmin and childrin, grab yer pitchforks and tiki torches!
    Well they are probably just spreading the disease up here... Right now my county only has three known cases. So yes Hide the wimmin and childrin...
    Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
      As long as you're "calling out the behavior for what it is", you could at least be honest about your own conduct.
      He thinks he IS being honest about his own conduct. John 9:41 is not inapt, I think.
      Enter the Church and wash away your sins. For here there is a hospital and not a court of law. Do not be ashamed to enter the Church; be ashamed when you sin, but not when you repent. – St. John Chrysostom

      Veritas vos Liberabit<>< Learn Greek <>< Look here for an Orthodox Church in America<><Ancient Faith Radio
      sigpic
      I recommend you do not try too hard and ...research as little as possible. Such weighty things give me a headache. - Shunyadragon, Baha'i apologist

      Comment


      • Originally posted by seer View Post
        Well they are probably just spreading the disease up here... Right now my county only has three known cases. So yes Hide the wimmin and childrin...
        And what do you base the number of cases on? It is extremely unlikely that any counties in New England have three cases, except maybe the thinly populated, rural, counties in the north.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by simplicio View Post
          And what do you base the number of cases on? It is extremely unlikely that any counties in New England have three cases, except maybe the thinly populated, rural, counties in the north.
          I said three known cases, as of this morning we have less that 20 cases. Probably New Yorkers!

          https://www.courant.com/coronavirus/...htmlstory.html
          Atheism is the cult of death, the death of hope. The universe is doomed, you are doomed, the only thing that remains is to await your execution...

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbnueb2OI4o&t=3s

          Comment


          • Originally posted by simplicio View Post
            Are you really arguing that you think there will be a mental health epidemic coming with a lockdown, and that depression will become so severe that despair will become a greater threat than this novel coronavirus?
            Yes, I believe that is a real possibility.


            Are you you using the (supposedly) discredited "someone, somewhere-argues-that- so-therefore-all- say-that" line?
            I don't know what that gobbledygook means, so I'll just say, "Whatever" and "You're an ass."
            Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.

            Beige Federalist.

            Nationalist Christian.

            "Everybody is somebody's heretic."

            Social Justice is usually the opposite of actual justice.

            Proud member of the this space left blank community.

            Would-be Grand Vizier of the Padishah Maxi-Super-Ultra-Hyper-Mega-MAGA King Trumpius Rex.

            Justice for Ashli Babbitt!

            Justice for Matthew Perna!

            Arrest Ray Epps and his Fed bosses!

            Comment


            • One way to track how much the virus is spreading is to look at the change in the worst case mortality #dead/(#recovered+#dead). It takes a good deal longer to recover if the virus does not kill you than it takes for the virus to kill you if you do not recover. So when the virus is spreading rapidly, the worst case mortality goes up. For a time, when China and S.Korea had a handle on stopping the spread and their growth was diminishing, but the rest of the world still had just a few cases (but short sighted ignorant leaders were pretending it would go away) we began to see the naive and worst case mortalities converge on what looked like would be around 3 to 4%. But now that the virus is going crazy again. doubling every week or so, that worst case mortality has shot way up again to nearly 15% world wide.

              Of course that is not a real number in terms of mortality. But it's growth is a consequence of the virus' unhindered spread.


              We are now at 435,000 cases total, more than 54,000 right here in the USA (we are now third in the world for number of cases) That global number will hit half a million likely sometime during the day Friday. The growth in one day is now over 40,000 new cases.

              The USA is now doubling its number of cases every 3 days. And it is now doubling its number of deaths every 2.3 days. So, looking at deaths at that current rate of doubling (to stay out of the quagmire of the ignorant hope for a mortality <1%), we will have seen nearly 9000 deaths by the first of April. By Easter, 330,000. 1 week later, 2.4 million. Let's hope staying at home (sort of) reduces that growth rate.

              Given the US population is 300+ million and the real mortality seems to be around 1% (???), that April to early May time frame would be a peak point in the infection if we do not flatten the curve.

              ---

              New York's mortality with all its testing is holding at a little over 1%. Again tending to confirm that is the more or less real number. Though it may be a little low in that testing uncovers new cases before they die, skewing mortality down. That is, with NY instense testing, the count of cases is ahead of the death curve.

              Germany crept up a bit, as I more or less expected, to about .51%. They are doing significant testing, so their cases curve is also ahead of the deaths curve. Hopefully by testing widely and quarantining, they can keep the sort of explosion we are seeing in the US from happening there. Indeed, unlike the US under at least partially ignorant leadership (many of the governers are doing quite well, but others that ally themselves with the president, and the president himself, not so much), they are starting to see the slope in the logarithmic curve lower, implying what they are doing is reducing the spread of the virus.

              As we are going to see in NY, waiting to act means the peak in serious cases is sharp and very difficult to control. Such is the nature of exponential growth.
              Last edited by oxmixmudd; 03-25-2020, 07:53 AM.
              My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

              If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

              This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

              Comment


              • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                It actually seems reasonable. I can stand it just fine because of my introvert nature. I’m sure this will drive those with an extrovert nature, crazy.
                I'm on the introvert end of the spectrum on the "Big Five" personality test (and *way* high on the neuroticism spectrum), and I have a bit of social anxiety, especially on brain-fog days. Dear Leader Wolf's draconian edicts, recognized by some to be out of proportion in comparison to other States, don't have much direct impact on my daily life. But I still object to them, and find their existence threatening.
                Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.

                Beige Federalist.

                Nationalist Christian.

                "Everybody is somebody's heretic."

                Social Justice is usually the opposite of actual justice.

                Proud member of the this space left blank community.

                Would-be Grand Vizier of the Padishah Maxi-Super-Ultra-Hyper-Mega-MAGA King Trumpius Rex.

                Justice for Ashli Babbitt!

                Justice for Matthew Perna!

                Arrest Ray Epps and his Fed bosses!

                Comment


                • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                  One way to track how much the virus is spreading is to look at the change in the worst case mortality #dead/(#recovered+#dead). It takes a good deal longer to recover if the virus does not kill you than it takes for the virus to kill you if you do not recover. So when the virus is spreading rapidly, the worst case mortality goes up. For a time, when China and S.Korea had a handle on stopping the spread and their growth was diminishing, but the rest of the world still had just a few cases (but short sighted ignorant leaders were pretending it would go away) we began to see the naive and worst case mortalities converge on what looked like would be around 3 to 4%. But now that the virus is going crazy again. doubling every week or so, that worst case mortality has shot way up again to nearly 15% world wide.

                  Of course that is not a real number in terms of mortality. But it's growth is a consequence of the virus' unhindered spread.


                  We are no at 435,000 cases total. That number will hit half a million likely sometime during the day Friday. The growth in one day is now over 40,000 new cases.

                  New York's mortality with all its testing is holding at a little over 1%. Again tending to confirm that is the more or less real number. Though it may be a little low in that testing uncovers new cases before they die, skewing mortality down. That is, with NY instense testing, the count of cases is ahead of the death curve.

                  Germany crept up a bit, as I more or less expected, to about .51%. They are doing significant testing, so their cases curve is also ahead of the deaths curve. Hopefully by testing widely and quarantining, they can keep the sort of explosion we are seeing in the US from happening there. Indeed, unlike the US under at least partially ignorant leadership (many of the governers are doing quite well, but others that ally themselves with the president, and the president himself, not so much), they are starting to see the slope in the logarithmic curve lower, implying what they are doing is reducing the spread of the virus.

                  As we are going to see in NY, waiting to act means the peak in serious cases is sharp and very difficult to control. Such is the nature of exponential growth.

                  If you live in a state with a small number of cases, you'd better hope your governor is not following Trump's lead and dragging his feet.

                  ------------

                  OTOH: people are losing their jobs. Supply chains for some are gone, meaning layoffs. I have relatives impacted this way. Too bad we don't have a true genius driving the ship. Then maybe we could get ahead of these curves instead of constantly having to say "I told you so" to the Commander in Chief.
                  “We spent years calling everything a crisis and saying we’re all going to die! Why do so few believe us now!

                  Good job, your TDS caused this.
                  "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                  GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by NorrinRadd View Post
                    I'm on the introvert end of the spectrum on the "Big Five" personality test (and *way* high on the neuroticism spectrum), and I have a bit of social anxiety, especially on brain-fog days. Dear Leader Wolf's draconian edicts, recognized by some to be out of proportion in comparison to other States, don't have much direct impact on my daily life. But I still object to them, and find their existence threatening.
                    I’m talking about your point which this can cause mental health problems and stress. I’ll be fine, since I’d rather not be in crowds, but I’m sure it’s going to drive others mad.
                    "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                    GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                    Comment


                    • Good question(s). Does anyone know where the answers can be found?

                      (The author wonders about "excess deaths" in Italy, and whether/how they affect the Kung Flu CFR there.)
                      Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.

                      Beige Federalist.

                      Nationalist Christian.

                      "Everybody is somebody's heretic."

                      Social Justice is usually the opposite of actual justice.

                      Proud member of the this space left blank community.

                      Would-be Grand Vizier of the Padishah Maxi-Super-Ultra-Hyper-Mega-MAGA King Trumpius Rex.

                      Justice for Ashli Babbitt!

                      Justice for Matthew Perna!

                      Arrest Ray Epps and his Fed bosses!

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                        I’m talking about your point which this can cause mental health problems and stress. I’ll be fine, since I’d rather not be in crowds, but I’m sure it’s going to drive others mad.
                        Yes, I know. I'm saying that I feel stress from it even though I'm an introvert and the edicts have had little direct impact on my lifestyle.
                        Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.

                        Beige Federalist.

                        Nationalist Christian.

                        "Everybody is somebody's heretic."

                        Social Justice is usually the opposite of actual justice.

                        Proud member of the this space left blank community.

                        Would-be Grand Vizier of the Padishah Maxi-Super-Ultra-Hyper-Mega-MAGA King Trumpius Rex.

                        Justice for Ashli Babbitt!

                        Justice for Matthew Perna!

                        Arrest Ray Epps and his Fed bosses!

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                          “We spent years calling everything a crisis and saying we’re all going to die! Why do so few believe us now!

                          Good job, your TDS caused this.
                          No pixie, your brand of ignorance caused this. The numbers have been out there for anyone to look at. The blame goes to ignorance, exactly the sort of ignorance that has been on public display on this site for years now by you and so many others. I told all of you where this was going 2 months ago. And I wasn't looking at the news. I was looking at the numbers. epidemiology is a science. And exponential curves are mathematics. The basic bits of information needed to figure this out are known by everyone with a high school biology class and High School algebra. That mean most if not all the idiots that have been playing this down for the last 2 or 3 months.

                          The problem is people believing the lie that the MSM is fake news. And the paranoid paralysis that has gripped the conservative members of our society towards science, even in its most basic form.

                          Maybe it's time to stop being ignorant boobs and following idiological morons?
                          My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                          If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                          This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                            No pixie, your brand of ignorance caused this.
                            What brand of ignorance is that? The brand that has told you, for three years, that calling everything a crisis, is dangerous because nobody will believe you when a real crisis comes? Your TDS caused this reaction Jim and the fact you shift the blame and don’t want to look at your own actions and your own failure, speaks all by itself. If this truly is the wolf and the wolf eats the flock, you and your kind have much of the blame.

                            The numbers have been out there for anyone to look at. The blame goes to ignorance, exactly the sort of ignorance that has been on public display on this site for years now by you and so many others. I told all of you where this was going 2 months ago. And I wasn't looking at the news. I was looking at the numbers. epidemiology is a science. And exponential curves are mathematics. The basic bits of information needed to figure this out are known by everyone with a high school biology class and High School algebra. That mean most if not all the idiots that have been playing this down for the last 2 or 3 months.
                            You mean the same projections that have over predicted hospitalizations, by two to three times because only an idiot uses the retirement capital, of Europe, to make models on a population that is much younger? Nah, we’ll ignore that just as you’ll flat ignore that I have told you, for three years, that your freak outs were dangerous and nobody will believe you when the wolf finally comes knocking. If this is truly the wolf knocking at the door, you have responsibility for the bad that happens, rather you admit it or not.

                            The problem is people believing the lie that the MSM is fake news. And the paranoid paralysis that has gripped the conservative members of our society towards science, even in its most basic form.
                            So the MSN hasn’t spent 3 years calling everything a crisis and trying to use this latest crisis, to push forth their own agenda? Good job, you ignore your cries of wolf and blame others for your failures. I truly hope I don’t have to tell you ‘told you so’ because I truly hope there won’t be a million or more dead.

                            Maybe it's time to stop being ignorant boobs and following idiological morons?
                            Unintended irony, noted.
                            Last edited by lilpixieofterror; 03-25-2020, 08:25 AM.
                            "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                            GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by NorrinRadd View Post
                              Yes, I know. I'm saying that I feel stress from it even though I'm an introvert and the edicts have had little direct impact on my lifestyle.
                              I’m sure. Many are watching their retirement dwindling away and the possibility of being laid off. It’s stressful, even if the social isolation isn’t a huge deal.
                              "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                              GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
                                No pixie, your brand of ignorance caused this. The numbers have been out there for anyone to look at. The blame goes to ignorance, exactly the sort of ignorance that has been on public display on this site for years now by you and so many others. I told all of you where this was going 2 months ago. And I wasn't looking at the news. I was looking at the numbers. epidemiology is a science. And exponential curves are mathematics. The basic bits of information needed to figure this out are known by everyone with a high school biology class and High School algebra. That mean most if not all the idiots that have been playing this down for the last 2 or 3 months.

                                The problem is people believing the lie that the MSM is fake news. And the paranoid paralysis that has gripped the conservative members of our society towards science, even in its most basic form.

                                Maybe it's time to stop being ignorant boobs and following idiological morons?
                                I would like to offer a sort of half-apology here. I get very, very frustrated with the impact of ideology on otherwise intelligent people. Pixie, MM, all this I debate continuously are intelligent people and capable of doing exactly what I've been doing in terms of looking at the data and deriving its implications. Some of my snarky comments are attempts to get them to take stock of where their paranoid bias against what they think of as 'liberals' (which unfortunately includes a large portion of those in the sciences) creates a blindness to the facts. The source must be some conservative pundit or it's suspect. And that means in this case raw data is suspect too.

                                But I realize some of those snarky comments come across as personal jabs. And I really DON'T want to be about the business of taking personal jabs at people. When I do that, I'm not trying to diminish you, I'm trying to get you to question your denial of basic facts and their logical conclusions all because you don't like the ideology of the potential source of those same facts. And it is destroying you, our country. We've got to move away from all this. It is a cancer on this site, and in our country. Covid-19 is real. The data is the data. If we can't work together on this, it will devastate us. This insanity of demonizing people based on their political party must stop. We need both sides to get it right.

                                Each side has a part of the truth. Each side has it's own set of blinders. Each side must learn to listen to the other side. No one has all the answers.
                                My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                                If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                                This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                                Comment

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