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  • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
    My comment was not meant to address a specific source...
    I know, it was a general swipe at me that missed by a mile.
    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
    Than a fool in the eyes of God


    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
      I know, it was a general swipe at me that missed by a mile.
      We'll never agree on that point.
      My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

      If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

      This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

      Comment


      • Originally posted by oxmixmudd View Post
        We'll never agree on that point.
        MM is an aspiring comedian. The reality is that on the comedy circuit he would literally starve. However somehow he managed to find an audience on Tweb. So give him his due for that much.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
          My biggest concern is if we get another wave next Autumn, how much will the situation be exacerbated by it being flu season as well (which typically swamps hospitals on its own).
          I will hold off on a prediction of a resurgence of COVID19 in the Fall, because of unknowns as to the nature of this coronavirus..

          I will make the prediction of a second hump in June or early July of cases and deaths that parallel other large countries, and some small countries that are not isolated like large islands. Relaxing measures like social distancing may cause a greater number of cases and fatalities, but the pattern of the curve is dependent on the virus. There will be a long gradual recovery agrivated by a lack of uniform measures to control the spread of the infection.

          I have problems with the count of the number of cases, because of the problems of testing being consistent over time. The increase in testing distorts the curve over time. It is likely that early and the middle in the pandemic the number of actual total cases was 50 to 80% higher, and the more recent curve is more accurate, because of the high number of asymptomatic and lightly infected. Taking this into consideration the actual bell curve of the infection history would have a more uniform symmetry with a much higher peak.

          The better estimates documenting the history of the coronavirus is the number of confirmed severe cases and the fatalities over time. I consider this a good sampling over time, but not necessarily accurate, because of many countries not providing accurate counts for political reasons like: Brazil, China, and Russia. Even though the numbers are not always accurate the bell curve of the history of the COVID 19 is consistent world wide for larger and medium countries..

          Smaller isolated countries with uniform populations and good testing, like New Zealand, Taiwan and Australia show a more symmetrical uniform curve of the corona virus history.
          Last edited by shunyadragon; 05-27-2020, 01:14 PM.
          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

          go with the flow the river knows . . .

          Frank

          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

          Comment


          • The problem with Trump/Putin in a crisis:
            Putin’s centralized power structure cannot handle the crisis alone. Putin delegated much of the burden to regional officials who were frightened of drawing attention to local problems and risking Moscow’s wrath.
One way to stay under the radar could be to understate cases or deaths, analysts say.
            Don’t upset the boss!

            https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...385_story.html
            “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
            “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
            “not all there” - you know who you are

            Comment


            • Launch scrubbed.
              “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
              “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
              “not all there” - you know who you are

              Comment


              • Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                the pattern of the curve is dependent on the virus.
                I never know what to make of this statement when I read it from you. It sounds like some sort of spiritual claim, that the great and holy all-powerful virus creates its own pattern regardless of human response.

                Smaller isolated countries with uniform populations and good testing, like New Zealand, Taiwan and Australia show a more symmetrical uniform curve of the corona virus history.
                Huh? I don't know what you think you mean by calling us 'uniform' because all the definitions I can think of for that make your statement false.
                "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                Comment


                • Originally posted by little_monkey View Post
                  MM is an aspiring comedian. The reality is that on the comedy circuit he would literally starve. However somehow he managed to find an audience on Tweb. So give him his due for that much.
                  Well, he might get them laughing, but they wouldn't be laughing with him.

                  Comment


                  • The mantra has been "More testing! More testing! More testing!"

                    Now the CDC is saying that the tests are more likely to record a false positive than a false negative.

                    Serologic tests – commonly referred to as antibody tests – detect whether or person previously had the Wuhan coronavirus but showed no symptoms "by measuring the host humoral immune response to the virus." If an antibody test is given to someone in an area with a low number of infections, it is highly probable that "less than half of those testing positive will truly have antibodies," Forbes reported.

                    "In most of the country, including areas that have been heavily impacted, the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibody is expected to be low, ranging from less than 5% to 25%, so that testing at this point might result in relatively more false positive results and fewer false-negative results," the CDC website stated.

                    Because the data is unreliable, the CDC says antibody testing shouldn't be relied upon to determine public policy decisions, like whether or not to reopen the economy or "grouping persons residing in or being admitted to congregate settings, such as schools, dormitories, or correctional facilities."

                    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethba...itive-n2569569

                    So what's the actual infection rate? Do we even know at this point?
                    Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
                    But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
                    Than a fool in the eyes of God


                    From "Fools Gold" by Petra

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
                      The mantra has been "More testing! More testing! More testing!"

                      Now the CDC is saying that the tests are more likely to record a false positive than a false negative.
                      You're confusing two completely different types of test.

                      The normal Covid testing is a PCR test, which looks for Covid DNA. Its rate of false-positives is so close to zero as makes no difference. But it does seem to return false negatives reasonably often (i.e. a person might have Covid but the test misses it, e.g. because the sample wasn't taken from infected cells). This is the type of test all countries have been using thus far to test for actual current Covid infections.

                      There has been recent work on a new completely different method, called antibody testing. Antibody testing tries to look in your blood for antibodies your immune system has produced to fight off the virus. This is a very hard type of test to get right because everyone has slightly different immune systems which make slightly different antibodies. Antibody testing is always very inaccurate initially, and improves very slowly over time (usually about a 2 year development period) as the developers of the test are able to sample more and more people and improve its detection of the right antibodies. Theoretically, a properly working version of this test, would allow countries to sample their population and find what percentage of people have had covid previously and gotten over it.

                      Your cited article correctly describes the problems of antibody tests being inaccurate. That is why barely anyone is currently using them for anything with regard to Covid (there have been a couple of pilot studies to try to guestimate the proportion of people in Stockholm and NYC who had had covid and gotten over it). They are not used on a daily basis to diagnose covid cases. Any graphs of current covid cases are based on the standard PCR tests that are far more accurate.

                      The "more testing" mantra typically refers to the idea that the current pretty-accurate PCR tests should be done in greater numbers on the population right now to identify who does and doesn't have covid at this point in time. It doesn't usually refer to a desire to develop new antibody tests to try and test what proportion of people have gotten over having covid.
                      Last edited by Starlight; 05-27-2020, 07:43 PM.
                      "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                      "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                      "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Starlight View Post
                        I never know what to make of this statement when I read it from you. It sounds like some sort of spiritual claim, that the great and holy all-powerful virus creates its own pattern regardless of human response.
                        Absolutely no spiritual claim here and your statement is more than a bit odd. I successfully predicted the peak period of COVID19 simple based on the natural bell curve of the path of corona virus infection cure of those that were infected earlier then the USA, and the natural infection curve of viruses in history.

                        Huh? I don't know what you think you mean by calling us 'uniform' because all the definitions I can think of for that make your statement false.
                        Huh?!?!? I do not even know what that means. I am not calling anybody 'uniform.' I am calling the curve of the virus infection path more uniform if you take into consideration all the cases that were not tested for, because of the lack of testing and inconsistency of testing previously when testing priority was for those sick. Even the websites that made predictions did so based on predictive bell curve infection history patterns as I do. My prediction of the peak for the USA was accurate based on this.
                        Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                        Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                        But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                        go with the flow the river knows . . .

                        Frank

                        I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                          Absolutely no spiritual claim here and your statement is more than a bit odd. I successfully predicted the peak period of COVID19 simple based on the natural bell curve of the path of corona virus infection cure of those that were infected earlier then the USA, and the natural infection curve of viruses in history.



                          Huh?!?!? I do not even know what that means. I am not calling anybody 'uniform.' I am calling the curve of the virus infection path more uniform if you take into consideration all the cases that were not tested for, because of the lack of testing and inconsistency of testing previously when testing priority was for those sick. Even the websites that made predictions did so based on predictive bell curve infection history patterns as I do. My prediction of the peak for the USA was accurate based on this.
                          You assume it seems, that social distancing strategies are not effective - which appears to be false. So, with heavy social distancing the "unnatural" bell curve is followed - as soon as those measures are ended - ???

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Zara View Post
                            You assume it seems, that social distancing strategies are not effective - which appears to be false. So, with heavy social distancing the "unnatural" bell curve is followed - as soon as those measures are ended - ???
                            It seems?!?!?! No I do not assume social distancing strategies are not effective. Please read my posts. I consider social distancing effective to a degree depending on the policies of the country, and in more disciplined countries like Germany and South Korea it is more effective, but in the USA, Great Britain and Brazil the lack of leadership, inconsistent policies, and generally an undisciplined population it was a disaster, and still may have consequences. The bell curve infection history remains determined by the corona virus and is predictable.
                            Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                            Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                            But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                            go with the flow the river knows . . .

                            Frank

                            I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                              The bell curve infection history remains determined by the corona virus and is predictable.
                              It's statements like this that confuse people. If you assert that the curve is (solely) determined by the virus, you're implying it's not determined by other things, e.g. government policy around social distancing.

                              Perhaps what you mean is something more along the lines of "this virus seems to have a distinctive bell-shaped curve, whose height can be changed through different government policies (e.g. around social distancing)".

                              I think your symmetry assumption is fundamentally wrong though. Initially in most countries, in the absence of social distancing measures, etc, the virus will have had a certain R0, so those countries will see an exponential curve rising at that rate. After there is a serious policy intervention - lockdown / social-distancing etc, there is essentially a new R0' relating to the virus spread (e.g. in NZ this was <0.5), and so you get a new exponential curve beginning around then whose growth or decay relate relates to this new R0'. Your assumption that the resultant graph will be symmetrical, assumes that the new R0' will happen to be the inverse of the original R0. There is no particular likelihood of this being true. The new R0' will be almost totally dependent on the rules implemented and level of compliance with them, so could range from almost zero to as high as the original R0. So only by chance would the two phases of the curve be symmetrical with each other.

                              Typical R0 values seem to be 1-5 (most often 2-3) for the initial outbreak, and then around 0.3-2.0 for the post-intervention R0'. If the initial R0 happens to be 2.0 and the R0' happens to be 0.5, you'll get a lovely symmetric bell curve since those are inverses. But if not, not. So there can be symmetry by chance, but it's not particularly likely.
                              "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                              "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                              "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                              Comment


                              • Ummm... world gone crazy... solid posts from Starlight AND Shunya... Wha....?
                                ...>>> Witty remark or snarky quote of another poster goes here <<<...

                                Comment

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