Page 388 of 407 FirstFirst ... 288338378386387388389390398 ... LastLast
Results 3,871 to 3,880 of 4070

Thread: Coronavirus Outbreak...

  1. #3871
    tWebber shunyadragon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Hillsborough, NC
    Faith
    Agnostic
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    15,849
    Amen (Given)
    1793
    Amen (Received)
    1065
    The following is an interesting method of modeling the COVID-19 pandemic that is similar to what I use, bit I disagree with the article that it is "new."

    Source: https://scitechdaily.com/new-model-predicts-the-peaks-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-around-the-world/



    New Model Predicts the Peaks of the COVID-19 Pandemic Around the World

    As of late May, COVID-19 has killed more than 325,000 people around the world. Even though the worst seems to be over for countries like China and South Korea, public health experts warn that cases and fatalities will continue to surge in many parts of the world. Understanding how the disease evolves can help these countries prepare for an expected uptick in cases.

    This week in the journal Frontiers, researchers describe a single function that accurately describes all existing available data on active cases and deaths — and predicts forthcoming peaks. The tool uses q-statistics, a set of functions and probability distributions developed by Constantino Tsallis, a physicist and member of the Santa Fe Institute’s external faculty. Tsallis worked on the new model together with Ugur Tirnakli, a physicist at Ege University, in Turkey.

    “The formula works in all the countries in which we have tested,” says Tsallis.

    Neither physicist ever set out to model a global pandemic. But Tsallis says that when he saw the shape of published graphs representing China’s daily active cases, he recognized shapes he’d seen before — namely, in graphs he’d helped produce almost two decades ago to describe the behavior of the stock market.

    “The shape was exactly the same,” he says. For the financial data, the function described probabilities of stock exchanges; for COVID-19, it described daily the number of active cases — and fatalities — as a function of time.

    Modeling financial data and tracking a global pandemic may seem unrelated, but Tsallis says they have one important thing in common. “They’re both complex systems,” he says, “and in complex systems, this happens all the time.” Disparate systems from a variety of fields — biology, network theory, computer science, mathematics — often reveal patterns that follow the same basic shapes and evolution.

    The financial graph appeared in a 2004 volume co-edited by Tsallis and the late Nobelist Murray Gell-Mann. Tsallis developed q-statistics, also known as “Tsallis statistics,” in the late 1980s as a generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics to complex systems.

    In the new paper, Tsallis and Tirnakli used data from China, where the active case rate is thought to have peaked, to set the main parameters for the formula. Then, they applied it to other countries including France, Brazil, and the United Kingdom, and found that it matched the evolution of the active cases and fatality rates over time.

    The model, says Tsallis, could be used to create useful tools like an app that updates in real-time with new available data, and can adjust its predictions accordingly. In addition, he thinks that it could be fine-tuned to fit future outbreaks as well.

    “The functional form seems to be universal,” he says, “Not just for this virus, but for the next one that might appear as well.”

    Reference: “Predicting COVID-19 Peaks Around the World” by Constantino Tsallis and Ugur Tirnakli, 29 May 2020, Frontiers in Physics.
    DOI: 10.3389/fphy.2020.00217

    © Copyright Original Source



    This use of modeling, and mine, do not depend on predicting accurate numbers, but predict the natural bell curve path and trends of the COVID-!9 in a given population. The problem with predicting actual numbers or using total numbers alone is there are to many factors that effect the actual numbers alone as a a way of predicting infection rate and course of the COVID-19 infection. The actual numbers of countries like China, USA, Russia and Brazil are unbelievably inaccurate due to political motives and lack of a competent well planned testing program.



    .
    Last edited by shunyadragon; 05-30-2020 at 07:40 AM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  2. #3872
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    The Republic of Texas
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    65,228
    Amen (Given)
    14138
    Amen (Received)
    28988
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  3. #3873
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    54,803
    Amen (Given)
    5611
    Amen (Received)
    23934
    How I view Shuny's Posts:

    Quote Originally Posted by Shunyadragon
    blah blah blah

  4. #3874
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    The Republic of Texas
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    65,228
    Amen (Given)
    14138
    Amen (Received)
    28988
    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    How I view Shuny's Posts:
    Shuny posted something?
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  5. #3875
    Troll Magnet Sparko's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    54,803
    Amen (Given)
    5611
    Amen (Received)
    23934
    Quote Originally Posted by Cow Poke View Post
    derp derp derp
    What?

  6. #3876
    See, the Thing is... Cow Poke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    The Republic of Texas
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    65,228
    Amen (Given)
    14138
    Amen (Received)
    28988
    Quote Originally Posted by Sparko View Post
    What?
    "Neighbor, how long has it been since you’ve had a big, thick, steaming bowl of Wolf Brand Chili?”

  7. #3877
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Maryland
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    8,896
    Amen (Given)
    775
    Amen (Received)
    2079
    Quote Originally Posted by shunyadragon View Post
    The following is an interesting method of modeling the COVID-19 pandemic that is similar to what I use, bit I disagree with the article that it is "new."

    Source: https://scitechdaily.com/new-model-predicts-the-peaks-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-around-the-world/



    New Model Predicts the Peaks of the COVID-19 Pandemic Around the World

    As of late May, COVID-19 has killed more than 325,000 people around the world. Even though the worst seems to be over for countries like China and South Korea, public health experts warn that cases and fatalities will continue to surge in many parts of the world. Understanding how the disease evolves can help these countries prepare for an expected uptick in cases.

    This week in the journal Frontiers, researchers describe a single function that accurately describes all existing available data on active cases and deaths — and predicts forthcoming peaks. The tool uses q-statistics, a set of functions and probability distributions developed by Constantino Tsallis, a physicist and member of the Santa Fe Institute’s external faculty. Tsallis worked on the new model together with Ugur Tirnakli, a physicist at Ege University, in Turkey.

    “The formula works in all the countries in which we have tested,” says Tsallis.

    Neither physicist ever set out to model a global pandemic. But Tsallis says that when he saw the shape of published graphs representing China’s daily active cases, he recognized shapes he’d seen before — namely, in graphs he’d helped produce almost two decades ago to describe the behavior of the stock market.

    “The shape was exactly the same,” he says. For the financial data, the function described probabilities of stock exchanges; for COVID-19, it described daily the number of active cases — and fatalities — as a function of time.

    Modeling financial data and tracking a global pandemic may seem unrelated, but Tsallis says they have one important thing in common. “They’re both complex systems,” he says, “and in complex systems, this happens all the time.” Disparate systems from a variety of fields — biology, network theory, computer science, mathematics — often reveal patterns that follow the same basic shapes and evolution.

    The financial graph appeared in a 2004 volume co-edited by Tsallis and the late Nobelist Murray Gell-Mann. Tsallis developed q-statistics, also known as “Tsallis statistics,” in the late 1980s as a generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics to complex systems.

    In the new paper, Tsallis and Tirnakli used data from China, where the active case rate is thought to have peaked, to set the main parameters for the formula. Then, they applied it to other countries including France, Brazil, and the United Kingdom, and found that it matched the evolution of the active cases and fatality rates over time.

    The model, says Tsallis, could be used to create useful tools like an app that updates in real-time with new available data, and can adjust its predictions accordingly. In addition, he thinks that it could be fine-tuned to fit future outbreaks as well.

    “The functional form seems to be universal,” he says, “Not just for this virus, but for the next one that might appear as well.”

    Reference: “Predicting COVID-19 Peaks Around the World” by Constantino Tsallis and Ugur Tirnakli, 29 May 2020, Frontiers in Physics.
    DOI: 10.3389/fphy.2020.00217

    © Copyright Original Source



    This use of modeling, and mine, do not depend on predicting accurate numbers, but predict the natural bell curve path and trends of the COVID-!9 in a given population. The problem with predicting actual numbers or using total numbers alone is there are to many factors that effect the actual numbers alone as a a way of predicting infection rate and course of the COVID-19 infection. The actual numbers of countries like China, USA, Russia and Brazil are unbelievably inaccurate due to political motives and lack of a competent well planned testing program.



    .
    Interesting Shuny - thanks.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  8. #3878
    tWebber
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Maryland
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    8,896
    Amen (Given)
    775
    Amen (Received)
    2079
    Update: Active daily cases in the US are somewhat stable for the last 3 weeks, though what was a slight decline has become a slight incline. There is no real hint of a significant protest driven rise yet that I can see.

    US daily 7 day average 06052020.PNG

    The 7 day average for day 1 of the plot is 23,214, for the last point is 22,227. The low point was 21,080 7 days ago.

    I'll post an update again if a major change shows before, or if not, by the end of next week.

    This graph represents the state post reopening. The decline was far steeper before the reopening. There is no attempt here to analyze finer grained trends, like rises in some areas (e.g. CA) vs declines in others (e.g. NY).
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 06-05-2020 at 09:52 AM.
    He will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  9. #3879
    tWebber firstfloor's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Faith
    invalid value
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    5,112
    Amen (Given)
    23
    Amen (Received)
    492
    The incompetent game show host v The virus.
    Who’s winning?
    “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
    “You can safely assume you've created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do.” ― Anne Lamott
    “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell

  10. #3880
    God bless the USA. Ack!! Bill the Cat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Central VA
    Faith
    Christian
    Gender
    Male
    Posts
    16,672
    Amen (Given)
    8249
    Amen (Received)
    8795
    Quote Originally Posted by firstfloor View Post
    The incompetent game show host v The virus.
    Who’s winning?
    If we look at the results from my daughter's lab, Trump is winning bigly Testing has not decreased at all, but positives are few and far between.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •