Coronavirus Outbreak...

[shunyadragon]

The following is an interesting method of modeling the COVID-19 pandemic that is similar to what I use, bit I disagree with the article that it is "new."

Source: https://scitechdaily.com/new-model-predicts-the-peaks-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-around-the-world/

New Model Predicts the Peaks of the COVID-19 Pandemic Around the World

As of late May, COVID-19 has killed more than 325,000 people around the world. Even though the worst seems to be over for countries like China and South Korea, public health experts warn that cases and fatalities will continue to surge in many parts of the world. Understanding how the disease evolves can help these countries prepare for an expected uptick in cases.

This week in the journal Frontiers, researchers describe a single function that accurately describes all existing available data on active cases and deaths — and predicts forthcoming peaks. The tool uses q-statistics, a set of functions and probability distributions developed by Constantino Tsallis, a physicist and member of the Santa Fe Institute’s external faculty. Tsallis worked on the new model together with Ugur Tirnakli, a physicist at Ege University, in Turkey.

“The formula works in all the countries in which we have tested,” says Tsallis.

Neither physicist ever set out to model a global pandemic. But Tsallis says that when he saw the shape of published graphs representing China’s daily active cases, he recognized shapes he’d seen before — namely, in graphs he’d helped produce almost two decades ago to describe the behavior of the stock market.

“The shape was exactly the same,” he says. For the financial data, the function described probabilities of stock exchanges; for COVID-19, it described daily the number of active cases — and fatalities — as a function of time.

Modeling financial data and tracking a global pandemic may seem unrelated, but Tsallis says they have one important thing in common. “They’re both complex systems,” he says, “and in complex systems, this happens all the time.” Disparate systems from a variety of fields — biology, network theory, computer science, mathematics — often reveal patterns that follow the same basic shapes and evolution.

The financial graph appeared in a 2004 volume co-edited by Tsallis and the late Nobelist Murray Gell-Mann. Tsallis developed q-statistics, also known as “Tsallis statistics,” in the late 1980s as a generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics to complex systems.

In the new paper, Tsallis and Tirnakli used data from China, where the active case rate is thought to have peaked, to set the main parameters for the formula. Then, they applied it to other countries including France, Brazil, and the United Kingdom, and found that it matched the evolution of the active cases and fatality rates over time.

The model, says Tsallis, could be used to create useful tools like an app that updates in real-time with new available data, and can adjust its predictions accordingly. In addition, he thinks that it could be fine-tuned to fit future outbreaks as well.

“The functional form seems to be universal,” he says, “Not just for this virus, but for the next one that might appear as well.”

Reference: “Predicting COVID-19 Peaks Around the World” by Constantino Tsallis and Ugur Tirnakli, 29 May 2020, Frontiers in Physics.
DOI: 10.3389/fphy.2020.00217

© Copyright Original Source

This use of modeling, and mine, do not depend on predicting accurate numbers, but predict the natural bell curve path and trends of the COVID-!9 in a given population. The problem with predicting actual numbers or using total numbers alone is there are to many factors that effect the actual numbers alone as a a way of predicting infection rate and course of the COVID-19 infection. The actual numbers of countries like China, USA, Russia and Brazil are unbelievably inaccurate due to political motives and lack of a competent well planned testing program.



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[Cow Poke]

[Sparko]

How I view Shuny's Posts:

blah blah blah

[Cow Poke]

How I view Shuny's Posts:

Shuny posted something?

[Sparko]

derp derp derp

What?

[Cow Poke]

What?

[oxmixmudd]

The following is an interesting method of modeling the COVID-19 pandemic that is similar to what I use, bit I disagree with the article that it is "new."

Source: https://scitechdaily.com/new-model-predicts-the-peaks-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-around-the-world/

New Model Predicts the Peaks of the COVID-19 Pandemic Around the World

As of late May, COVID-19 has killed more than 325,000 people around the world. Even though the worst seems to be over for countries like China and South Korea, public health experts warn that cases and fatalities will continue to surge in many parts of the world. Understanding how the disease evolves can help these countries prepare for an expected uptick in cases.

This week in the journal Frontiers, researchers describe a single function that accurately describes all existing available data on active cases and deaths — and predicts forthcoming peaks. The tool uses q-statistics, a set of functions and probability distributions developed by Constantino Tsallis, a physicist and member of the Santa Fe Institute’s external faculty. Tsallis worked on the new model together with Ugur Tirnakli, a physicist at Ege University, in Turkey.

“The formula works in all the countries in which we have tested,” says Tsallis.

Neither physicist ever set out to model a global pandemic. But Tsallis says that when he saw the shape of published graphs representing China’s daily active cases, he recognized shapes he’d seen before — namely, in graphs he’d helped produce almost two decades ago to describe the behavior of the stock market.

“The shape was exactly the same,” he says. For the financial data, the function described probabilities of stock exchanges; for COVID-19, it described daily the number of active cases — and fatalities — as a function of time.

Modeling financial data and tracking a global pandemic may seem unrelated, but Tsallis says they have one important thing in common. “They’re both complex systems,” he says, “and in complex systems, this happens all the time.” Disparate systems from a variety of fields — biology, network theory, computer science, mathematics — often reveal patterns that follow the same basic shapes and evolution.

The financial graph appeared in a 2004 volume co-edited by Tsallis and the late Nobelist Murray Gell-Mann. Tsallis developed q-statistics, also known as “Tsallis statistics,” in the late 1980s as a generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics to complex systems.

In the new paper, Tsallis and Tirnakli used data from China, where the active case rate is thought to have peaked, to set the main parameters for the formula. Then, they applied it to other countries including France, Brazil, and the United Kingdom, and found that it matched the evolution of the active cases and fatality rates over time.

The model, says Tsallis, could be used to create useful tools like an app that updates in real-time with new available data, and can adjust its predictions accordingly. In addition, he thinks that it could be fine-tuned to fit future outbreaks as well.

“The functional form seems to be universal,” he says, “Not just for this virus, but for the next one that might appear as well.”

Reference: “Predicting COVID-19 Peaks Around the World” by Constantino Tsallis and Ugur Tirnakli, 29 May 2020, Frontiers in Physics.
DOI: 10.3389/fphy.2020.00217

© Copyright Original Source

This use of modeling, and mine, do not depend on predicting accurate numbers, but predict the natural bell curve path and trends of the COVID-!9 in a given population. The problem with predicting actual numbers or using total numbers alone is there are to many factors that effect the actual numbers alone as a a way of predicting infection rate and course of the COVID-19 infection. The actual numbers of countries like China, USA, Russia and Brazil are unbelievably inaccurate due to political motives and lack of a competent well planned testing program.



.

Interesting Shuny - thanks.

[oxmixmudd]

Update: Active daily cases in the US are somewhat stable for the last 3 weeks, though what was a slight decline has become a slight incline. There is no real hint of a significant protest driven rise yet that I can see.

US daily 7 day average 06052020.PNG

The 7 day average for day 1 of the plot is 23,214, for the last point is 22,227. The low point was 21,080 7 days ago.

I'll post an update again if a major change shows before, or if not, by the end of next week.

This graph represents the state post reopening. The decline was far steeper before the reopening. There is no attempt here to analyze finer grained trends, like rises in some areas (e.g. CA) vs declines in others (e.g. NY).

[firstfloor]

The incompetent game show host v The virus.
Who’s winning?

[Bill the Cat]

The incompetent game show host v The virus.
Who’s winning?

If we look at the results from my daughter's lab, Trump is winning bigly Testing has not decreased at all, but positives are few and far between.

[Starlight]

Here in New Zealand the government today lifted all remaining business and social distancing restrictions as the disease seems to have been fully eliminated from the country. Only difference to usual is that the borders are closed to humans. Apart from that all business and economic life should resume as per normal.

[firstfloor]

If we look at the results from my daughter's lab, Trump is winning bigly Testing has not decreased at all, but positives are few and far between.

Good to hear. Rachel must be exaggerating.

[Cow Poke]

Here in New Zealand the government today lifted all remaining business and social distancing restrictions as the disease seems to have been fully eliminated from the country. Only difference to usual is that the borders are closed to humans. Apart from that all business and economic life should resume as per normal.

Great news, Star.

[oxmixmudd]

The incompetent game show host v The virus.
Who’s winning?

In the US as a whole we are mostly flat. Places where the disease is on an upswing like Arizona, North Carolina are compensated for by places where the mitigation efforts have been effective and the numbers of new cases are falling..

Some of the more absurd situations are Brazil which, rather than implementing any sort of stay at home order has simply chosen to stop reporting cumulative data. It is still reporting daily numbers. So sites like wordometwrs will continue to provide updates.

[Starlight]

BTW, here's the posters the NZ government was using throughout the quarantine (the NZ version of the UK's Keep Calm and Carry On, I guess):

COVID19_icon_facebook_be-kind.jpg

Seeing them always made me think of the... slightly different... tone that Trump was setting in the US. Maybe he could do with a few thousand sent to him now to help him out?