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  • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    ...

    Bottom line - the "stay locked down" and the "open up the economy" people BOTH have it wrong. Both are arguing for an absolute that cannot be justified. Systematic, data-based, re-opening is what we should be doing. In other words, we are going to have to get through this the same way a seeing person gets through a dark room: by feeling our way to the door.
    Exactly. There has to be a fact based, data based, iterative and creative approaches to handling this pandemic. We can't just go 'back to normal', or we will go back to exponential growth and overwhelm our medical systems and close down critical infrastructure we've been able to keep open during the lock down. But we can't sustain full lock down forever, or even for a long time.

    Behavior has to change - we must all wear masks when we are around each other. We must avoid as much as is possible contact with unknowns. But - we need people to be able to get back to work as much as possible. But we can't go back to full capacity in restaurants or shopping mall or theaters - not till we have a vaccine or an effective treatment. The American Choral Directors Association, NATS etc, in recognition of the fact that singing tends to produce a super spreader environment as the exaggerated diction and volumes produces a lot of aerosolized saliva, has said there really isn't a very practical way for choirs to meet or to perform until there is a vaccine, or until testing is so prevalent that they can test all the participants prior to each rehearsal (that can be 200 people in some cases). Testing 200 people before a rehearsal? EVERY rehearsal? Not likely. Similar problems exist for indoor church meetings - we sing in those services, which is about the worst thing that we can do for spreading the virus in that contained environment.

    We are also learning there can be some serious side effects in those younger ones we previously thought were not very susceptible to the virus. There is a lot yet to learn. A lot yet to do.

    We can't really go back to normal for a while. But we can find ways to keep the economy going while maintaining reasonable safety - and we must.
    My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

    If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

    This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Zara View Post
      5% of people in Spain have had covid, of whom ~1.3% died. This was an antibody blood test. Sure, the US has fewer old people, but I dear say, more unhealthy people, either way, a lot of people haven't had covid in Spain and a lot of people have already died.
      And I ask again,

      What was their age group? 75% of all lab confirmed cases are those over 65. It’s highly doubtful that those 65+ are simply that much more likely to get sick. The most likely answer is that the infection rates are the same, but younger people are more likely to simply stay home and not needing to be hospitalized.
      "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
      GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

      Comment


      • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
        That made me chuckle. At least, I hope you were speaking humorously...



        And we have no way to get that data that I can think of. All parallels to the past ignore the reality of the present, where we have tools that were nowhere in sight during either the Great Depression or the 1918 pandemic. The closest parallel on that front is the Great Recession, which began just over a decade ago. But even for that, technology has shifted significantly.

        So, given that we cannot calculate that crossover date, there is only one avenue available that I can see and it consists of two prongs:

        1) Put as much effort as possible into community, state, and federal support for those struggling due to the economic downturn, so as to minimize the loss of life due to that risk.
        2) Re-open carefully/cautiously those areas that we believe can be opened safely, monitoring and evaluating constantly as that happens to minimize the loss of life due to that risk.

        We may not be able to predict that crossover moment, but we can monitor the current state at any given time and track it into the past to see the trend lines. We can see the gap between the two "death" lines as they unfold, and begin to adjust our approach as the trend lines converge and/or cross over. We have the resources to do that kind of analysis.

        Bottom line - the "stay locked down" and the "open up the economy" people BOTH have it wrong. Both are arguing for an absolute that cannot be justified. Systematic, data-based, re-opening is what we should be doing. In other words, we are going to have to get through this the same way a seeing person gets through a dark room: by feeling our way to the door.


        No, no, no NO!

        Stop posting things I can only agree with! How can we maintain the traditional TWeb aura of latent hostility and suspicion if you do that? I'm really hoping your next post is filled with your usual lefty reefer madness...


        ...>>> Witty remark or snarky quote of another poster goes here <<<...

        Comment


        • Originally posted by MaxVel View Post
          No, no, no NO!

          Stop posting things I can only agree with! How can we maintain the traditional TWeb aura of latent hostility and suspicion if you do that? I'm really hoping your next post is filled with your usual lefty reefer madness...


          Comment


          • Originally posted by MaxVel View Post
            No, no, no NO!

            Stop posting things I can only agree with! How can we maintain the traditional TWeb aura of latent hostility and suspicion if you do that? I'm really hoping your next post is filled with your usual lefty reefer madness...



            Reefer madness? Now THAT's an image...



            However, if we are in agreement...I MUST be doing something wrong. I'll have to give it some thought.














            (for the humorously impaired, that last part was a joke)
            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

            Comment


            • Originally posted by MaxVel View Post
              No, no, no NO!

              Stop posting things I can only agree with! How can we maintain the traditional TWeb aura of latent hostility and suspicion if you do that? I'm really hoping your next post is filled with your usual lefty reefer madness...


              Don't worry, if you were to try to nail him down on anything in his post, he will likely deny it and claim he meant something totally different.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                And I ask again,

                What was their age group? 75% of all lab confirmed cases are those over 65. It’s highly doubtful that those 65+ are simply that much more likely to get sick. The most likely answer is that the infection rates are the same, but younger people are more likely to simply stay home and not needing to be hospitalized.
                You still aren't making sense, nowhere was hospilisation mentioned.

                The study aimed "to test 90,000 people across 36,000 households for the presence of antibodies generated to fight off the virus."

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Zara View Post
                  You still aren't making sense, nowhere was hospilisation mentioned.

                  The study aimed "to test 90,000 people across 36,000 households for the presence of antibodies generated to fight off the virus."
                  And that still doesn’t answer what I asked, what are their demographics? What I gave you is the problem I am seeing across the world. The majority of confirmed China Flu cases and deaths, come from 75% of the population. Those over the age of 65. That’s important, so I ask again, is the infection rate for younger individuals the same or less?
                  "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                  GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
                    And that still doesn’t answer what I asked, what are their demographics? What I gave you is the problem I am seeing across the world. The majority of confirmed China Flu cases and deaths, come from 75% of the population. Those over the age of 65. That’s important, so I ask again, is the infection rate for younger individuals the same or less?
                    "Preliminary results from a nationwide coronavirus antibody study show that about 5% of the overall Spanish population has been affected, the Health Ministry said on Wednesday, adding that results varied widely from region to region." https://www.isciii.es/Noticias/Notic...NECOVID19.aspx
                    Last edited by Zara; 05-14-2020, 10:59 PM.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by MaxVel View Post
                      I was referring to this case, which looks like a suicide / stress -related death.
                      It certainly seems to be a suicide related to a business failure. However, the article notes that this chain of stores has had a series of closures over the last year, the rest occurring before covid, and that the article writer is unaware of any evidence that this closure was covid-related.
                      "I hate him passionately", he's "a demonic force" - Tucker Carlson, in private, on Donald Trump
                      "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism" - George Orwell
                      "[Capitalism] as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of evils. I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy" - Albert Einstein

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Zara View Post
                        "Preliminary results from a nationwide coronavirus antibody study show that about 5% of the overall Spanish population has been affected, the Health Ministry said on Wednesday, adding that results varied widely from region to region." https://www.isciii.es/Noticias/Notic...NECOVID19.aspx
                        And that doesn’t tell me the age breakdown. Are younger people getting it at the same rate, but being asymptomatic or have less severe symptoms? That’s an important detail to know because most of the lab confirmed cases come from those over 65, with 88% confirmed cases being over 55 and 93% of all deaths are 55 or older. Other countries show a similar pattern, so we really need to know the age group breakdown.

                        https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisiona...nd-S/9bhg-hcku
                        Last edited by lilpixieofterror; 05-15-2020, 05:18 AM.
                        "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                        GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                        Comment


                        • Linick firing:

                          Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) called the firing “shameful” in a late Friday tweet. “Another late Friday night attack on independence, accountability, and career officials,” he wrote. “At this point, the President’s paralyzing fear of any oversight is undeniable.”


                          Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), also on Twitter, said “inspectors general are inconvenient, pesky brutes if your goal is turn the government into a cash cow for your friends, cronies and family.”
                          Yes, remove oversight, pocket the cash.
                          “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
                          “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
                          “not all there” - you know who you are

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
                            Linick firing:

                            Yes, remove oversight, pocket the cash.
                            The mafia has been doing that for centuries... same old same old...

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by firstfloor View Post
                              Linick firing:



                              Yes, remove oversight, pocket the cash.
                              The RWNJ Daily Wire chimes in showing some legitimate grounds for his disposal.
                              Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.

                              Beige Federalist.

                              Nationalist Christian.

                              "Everybody is somebody's heretic."

                              Social Justice is usually the opposite of actual justice.

                              Proud member of the this space left blank community.

                              Would-be Grand Vizier of the Padishah Maxi-Super-Ultra-Hyper-Mega-MAGA King Trumpius Rex.

                              Justice for Ashli Babbitt!

                              Justice for Matthew Perna!

                              Arrest Ray Epps and his Fed bosses!

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by NorrinRadd View Post
                                The RWNJ Daily Wire chimes in showing some legitimate grounds for his disposal.
                                No - Trump fires people that are in his way and has no tolerance for competence or integrity that might eclipse loyalty to him.This has been the pattern for 4 years. It's just wrong to even try to claim there is any other reason at this point.
                                My brethren, do not hold your faith in our glorious Lord Jesus Christ with an attitude of personal favoritism. James 2:1

                                If anyone thinks himself to be religious, and yet does not  bridle his tongue but deceives his own heart, this man’s religion is worthless James 1:26

                                This you know, my beloved brethren. But everyone must be quick to hear, slow to speak and slow to anger; James 1:19

                                Comment

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