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  • Originally posted by Roy View Post
    The USA had 50,000 new cases yesterday.

    The 7-day average, which was gradually dropping from 30,000 per day to 20,00 per day, with most days being below that rolling average, has now doubled again to 40,000 per day in the last week, with every day this week being above the previous average.

    There hasn't been any increase in testing, so this can't be an artefact of testing more.
    And the biggest jump appears to be among younger people. For instance, the average age of someone here in my state has dropped by 20 years in just the past month.

    I wonder if there is some plausible explanation for that







    Moreover, the daily number of deaths from the Chicom coronavirus has been dropping sharply, which for some odd reason the MSM has little interest in reporting.

    I'm always still in trouble again

    "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
    "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
    "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

    Comment


    • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
      Moreover, the daily number of deaths from the Chicom coronavirus has been dropping sharply, which for some odd reason the MSM has little interest in reporting.
      Probably because it isn't true.

      The 7-day average for the last six weeks has been:
      May 26: 1155
      Jun 02: 1080
      Jun 09: 850
      Jun 16: 723
      Jun 23: 628
      Jun 30: 581

      That's a gradual decline, and getting more gradual, not a sharp drop. The preceding increase took just six days to cover that range.
      Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

      MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
      MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

      seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Roy View Post
        The USA had 50,000 new cases yesterday.

        The 7-day average, which was gradually dropping from 30,000 per day to 20,00 per day, with most days being below that rolling average, has now doubled again to 40,000 per day in the last week, with every day this week being above the previous average.

        There has been an increase in testing, but not enough nor rapidly enough to explain this increase. Also, the rise is geographically diverse.

        Previously the expected total number of fatalities were around 180,000 by October. That's beginning to look wildly optimistic. It's extremely worrying.
        They battled against The Andromeda Strain using the Wildfire underground facility. We have Trumpco. Heaven preserve us!
        “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
        “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
        “not all there” - you know who you are

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Roy View Post
          Probably because it isn't true.

          The 7-day average for the last six weeks has been:
          May 26: 1155
          Jun 02: 1080
          Jun 09: 850
          Jun 16: 723
          Jun 23: 628
          Jun 30: 581

          That's a gradual decline, and getting more gradual, not a sharp drop. The preceding increase took just six days to cover that range.
          And there is something else going on with the data that seems to be flying under the radar: the historical data is changing on a regular basis. I know this because I have been tracking it since January in a spreadsheet I designed. I set up the spreadsheet so that I simply insert the new "total" for the various categories and the sheet calculates the change since the day before automatically. In theory, my "change" should always track with the "change" on the various sites I've been tracking. However, every 2-3 days, the number doesn't match. In every single instance, my number is higher than the one reported. When I dig into why, I find that the daily increases have been altered going back to almost the beginning.

          There are two possibilities here that I can think of. One is that the sites are getting updated information from the field that changes the historical record and they are adjusting the data to match. If that is the cause, it is innocuous. But the other possibility is that the sites are taking some of today's data and "spreading it out" over the previous days, keeping the total accurate but making the daily delta look artificially smaller. It seems to be happening in more than one site, so I am hoping it is the former. If it is the latter, then the ugly numbers we are seeing are even uglier. In the specific case of deaths, it means the deaths are very likely steadily rising rather than slowly falling.
          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

          Comment


          • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
            And the biggest jump appears to be among younger people. For instance, the average age of someone here in my state has dropped by 20 years in just the past month.

            I wonder if there is some plausible explanation for that

            [ATTACH=CONFIG]46223[/ATTACH]






            Moreover, the daily number of deaths from the Chicom coronavirus has been dropping sharply, which for some odd reason the MSM has little interest in reporting.
            I wish your focus on science and data was as great, rational and accurate on the COVID-19 pandemic as it it is concerning evolution.Your disparaging terminology of using 'Chicom' is too 'Trumpish.
            Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
            Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
            But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

            go with the flow the river knows . . .

            Frank

            I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Roy View Post
              Probably because it isn't true.

              The 7-day average for the last six weeks has been:
              May 26: 1155
              Jun 02: 1080
              Jun 09: 850
              Jun 16: 723
              Jun 23: 628
              Jun 30: 581

              That's a gradual decline, and getting more gradual, not a sharp drop. The preceding increase took just six days to cover that range.
              Not to mention that in the worst-case flu year, the average number of daily deaths for the season is 335/day (61,000 people over a 6-month flu season). In the average flu year, the number is about half of that (169/day). The 581 number is still 73% above the worst flu year and 244% above the average.

              The increase in cases will inevitably result in an increase in deaths, but I doubt it will reach previous levels. There are two reasons for that. The first is that the resurgence is hitting more young people than old. That, of course, could change. The second is that we are further down the "treatment learning curve." As more and more people have been hospitalized and treated, the medical community has learned more and more about what treatments are most effective, which will inevitably help to reduce the mortality of the disease.
              The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

              I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

              Comment


              • Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                And the biggest jump appears to be among younger people. For instance, the average age of someone here in my state has dropped by 20 years in just the past month.

                I wonder if there is some plausible explanation for that

                [ATTACH=CONFIG]46223[/ATTACH]
                True - but selective. Let's not forget the protests about "opening up" and "don't tread on me" before that - mostly from people on the right and largely without any masks or protection. And let's not forget the states that rejected stay at home orders and mandates for masks, all of which are now seeing explosive growth numbers*. And let's not forget the broad rejection of social distancing and masks, again predominantly from two demographics: right-leaning people of all ages, and young people of all political bents.

                *to be fair, some of the states that DID implement these things are also seeing growth, mostly due to pre-mature opening activities. NY and New England in general are (so far) exceptions that seem to be holding the line or improving.

                Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                Moreover, the daily number of deaths from the Chicom coronavirus has been dropping sharply, which for some odd reason the MSM has little interest in reporting.
                See my response to Roy.
                Last edited by carpedm9587; 07-02-2020, 06:52 AM.
                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                Comment


                • Calls here to abandon crude and blunt large scale lockdowns, and go for precise measures to protect vulnerable groups.
                  “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
                  “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
                  “not all there” - you know who you are

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                    There are two possibilities here that I can think of. One is that the sites are getting updated information from the field that changes the historical record and they are adjusting the data to match. If that is the cause, it is innocuous. But the other possibility is that the sites are taking some of today's data and "spreading it out" over the previous days, keeping the total accurate but making the daily delta look artificially smaller. It seems to be happening in more than one site, so I am hoping it is the former.
                    It is the former. Some updates highlight errors or omissions or miscountings in previous figures. Sometimes cases and fatalities aren't recorded until several days later, and adding them on the wrong date skews the figures. I recall being surprised once that Argentina (IIRC,WIPD) added 8,000 new cases one day, only to see that they hadn't recorded any for the previous few days and had lumped several days' figures together.
                    Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                    MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                    MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

                    seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                      True - but selective. Let's not forget the protests about "opening up" and "don't tread on me" before that - mostly from people on the right and largely without any masks or protection. And let's not forget the states that rejected stay at home orders and mandates for masks, all of which are now seeing explosive growth numbers*. And let's not forget the broad rejection of social distancing and masks, again predominantly from two demographics: right-leaning people of all ages, and young people of all political bents.
                      The real reason for the shift in demographics of those testing positive seems to be a combination of (I) testing no longer being done only on those who show symptoms, and (II) the re-opening of bars, gyms, restaurants and nightclubs in some states while the virus is still circulating.
                      Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                      MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                      MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

                      seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Roy View Post
                        The real reason for the shift in demographics of those testing positive seems to be a combination of (I) testing no longer being done only on those who show symptoms, and (II) the re-opening of bars, gyms, restaurants and nightclubs in some states while the virus is still circulating.
                        I never understood why, specifically, bars were reopening. People drink and lose their sense of the need to distance. They talk loud and force more particles from their mouth when they lean over to "whisper" in your ear that they love you...
                        That's what
                        - She

                        Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                        - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                        I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                        - Stephen R. Donaldson

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Roy View Post
                          It is the former. Some updates highlight errors or omissions or miscountings in previous figures. Sometimes cases and fatalities aren't recorded until several days later, and adding them on the wrong date skews the figures. I recall being surprised once that Argentina (IIRC,WIPD) added 8,000 new cases one day, only to see that they hadn't recorded any for the previous few days and had lumped several days' figures together.
                          I have to admit to having my suspicions, Roy. I'm not talking about adjusting numbers for the past few days. Case in point, a couple of days back I updated my sheet to find that my sheet reported 1,139 deaths on the previous day but the official number was 512. When I investigated, I found that every single data point back to March 16th had been changed by 2-15 deaths. Every single one. That wide-scale change has happened four times in the past three weeks.

                          It just seems...odd. Who on earth is revising their data for the past three months? I suppose it is possible that each time it is a new data source that was previously unseen, like a county or town that had never reported numbers and suddenly dumped 3 months of data on them. Or it could be that some place suddenly decided to test those who had died without being tested and then added the numbers in?

                          I suppose it COULD be something like that.
                          The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                          I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
                            I never understood why, specifically, bars were reopening. People drink and lose their sense of the need to distance. They talk loud and force more particles from their mouth when they lean over to "whisper" in your ear that they love you...
                            Sheesh... you've never said that to ME!
                            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Roy View Post
                              The USA had 50,000 new cases yesterday.

                              The 7-day average, which was gradually dropping from 30,000 per day to 20,00 per day, with most days being below that rolling average, has now doubled again to 40,000 per day in the last week, with every day this week being above the previous average.

                              There has been an increase in testing, but not enough nor rapidly enough to explain this increase. Also, the rise is geographically diverse.

                              Previously the expected total number of fatalities were around 180,000 by October. That's beginning to look wildly optimistic. It's extremely worrying.
                              Blame the protestors across the country.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                                I have to admit to having my suspicions, Roy. I'm not talking about adjusting numbers for the past few days. Case in point, a couple of days back I updated my sheet to find that my sheet reported 1,139 deaths on the previous day but the official number was 512. When I investigated, I found that every single data point back to March 16th had been changed by 2-15 deaths. Every single one. That wide-scale change has happened four times in the past three weeks.

                                It just seems...odd. Who on earth is revising their data for the past three months? I suppose it is possible that each time it is a new data source that was previously unseen, like a county or town that had never reported numbers and suddenly dumped 3 months of data on them. Or it could be that some place suddenly decided to test those who had died without being tested and then added the numbers in?

                                I suppose it COULD be something like that.
                                https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ includes details of changes made. For example:

                                NOTES:

                                New York City Department of Health: "On June 30, the count of New Yorkers who have died of COVID-19 increased by 692. Most of that increase is due to new information we received from the NYS Department of Health about city residents who died outside the city. The vast majority of these deaths occurred more than three weeks ago." Worldometer has adjusted New York State history accordingly.

                                Massachusetts Department of Public Health: *Due to ongoing data cleaning which identifies and removes duplicate reports, the number of both confirmed and probable deaths has decreased as of today’s report."

                                that scond one is particularly relevant.
                                Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                                MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                                MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

                                seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

                                Comment

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