Coronavirus Outbreak...

[carpedm9587]

The death rate in Germany, BTW, continues to climb. It is now up to .67% from yesterday. Up from .62% this morning. They have done aggressive early testing and found many cases that would otherwise have been undetected. That skewed their early numbers low. But they are now on a steep rise, but have some fairly aggressive social distancing requirements. That is in itself scary.

Careful. If you find the numbers scary - that makes you some kind of gullible liberal chicken little.

On the other hand, maybe that's better than being the proverbial ostrich!

[lilpixieofterror]

Again, "willing to sacrifice" is not "wishing we had to sacrifice."

I might be willing to see my house destroyed by a flood if it will save my neighbor's house. That doesn't mean I WANT my house to be destroyed by a flood.

There are two possibilities: you are too simple-minded to understand this distinction, or you are intentionally perpetuating a lie. I do not believe you simple-minded.

And the only way for your personal sacrifice to mean anything, is a national event that effects millions. A point I made to you and you never corrected and never said otherwise and you even doubled down on. A national event, that is effecting millions is happening that could very well end Trump’s chances for re-election depending on how it ends over the next few months. You got your event, is this not what you wished for or are you throwing out ad hominem’s because your words sound pretty bad, in retrospect?

[lilpixieofterror]

Oh for pity's sake - that post was made to point out that Ox's statement about "worst case" was not worst case at all, and there could be worst cases. At no point have I ever actually wanted those deaths to occur.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for reading the post as a serious desire on my part (though how anyone could think someone would actually want such a thing is beyond me). But now that I have clarified the meaning and intent and my actual opinion, if you persist in posting that I want such things, you will be lying. I've clearly now explained the post and told you otherwise.

You never give me the benefit of the doubt, so you shouldn’t be given it. You apparently believe your opponents want lots of people to die. Is that not what you met?

[carpedm9587]

Yeah - I have no way of evaluating such reports. The one thing that is beginning to stand out is that even in countries that are practicing fairly intense social distancing we are seeing steep rises in cases and deaths. If that continues to be the case, it would support the idea China is not being honest in its report of the impact of the disease there. But it could also indicate that short of the virtual imprisonment China imposed, the spread of the disease is very hard to stop.

Actually, S. Korea is showing a significant flattening of their infection curve, and have been (like Germany) aggressive in testing, tracking, and isolating. So it is possible China is likewise seeing that kind of flattening. Given the draconian measures China imposed, it is certainly possible. Given that they are re-opening provinces previously shut down suggests they might have actually gotten ahead of the curve. That suggests two approaches that might be effective: draconian social distancing to the point of martial law, or science-based testing, tracking, and isolation.

I would prefer that the U.S. not do the former - which leaves the latter. But this administration is doing neither, and actually talking about downplaying social distancing. Even Cuomo just started to ring that gong. Meanwhile, we crossed 500,000 cases worldwide yesterday and are on track to cross 600,000 cases today. The U.S. is doubling cases roughly every 3 days and is on track to have over 100,000 cases before the end of today. Michigan has seen an order of magnitude increase in 8 days. Deaths are also climbing exponentially, and hot spots are popping up all over the U.S. (e.g., New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago, etc.).

And still...pointing out the trend = "chicken little." I doubt anyone here will acknowledge that Trump's administration is seriously screwing up even if we DO see the 2.5M death numbers some are projecting. It will simply be waved away as "no one could have done better and thanks to Trump it's not 20M!" Unbelievable...

[carpedm9587]

You never give me the benefit of the doubt, so you shouldn’t be given it. You apparently believe your opponents want lots of people to die. Is that not what you met?

Another lie as is the post before it. I'm done here, Pix. Lie away if you wish. I'm finished attempting to correct your lies and miss-characterizations. I trust the readers (except your circle of cronies, of course) to read my posts and appreciate what I actually think and say.

Last word to you.

[oxmixmudd]

Careful. If you find the numbers scary - that makes you some kind of gullible liberal chicken little.

On the other hand, maybe that's better than being the proverbial ostrich!

Understood

OTOH, I can't imagine someone that would not find the raw numbers scary. It IS scary.

[oxmixmudd]

Actually, S. Korea is showing a significant flattening of their infection curve, and have been (like Germany) aggressive in testing, tracking, and isolating. So it is possible China is likewise seeing that kind of flattening. Given the draconian measures China imposed, it is certainly possible. Given that they are re-opening provinces previously shut down suggests they might have actually gotten ahead of the curve. That suggests two approaches that might be effective: draconian social distancing to the point of martial law, or science-based testing, tracking, and isolation.

Indeed, that is my primary point. China's numbers are consistent, we have seen other places turn the curve. But it takes a very aggressive approach to containment and isolation.

I would prefer that the U.S. not do the former - which leaves the latter. But this administration is doing neither, and actually talking about downplaying social distancing. Even Cuomo just started to ring that gong. Meanwhile, we crossed 500,000 cases worldwide yesterday and are on track to cross 600,000 cases today. The U.S. is doubling cases roughly every 3 days and is on track to have over 100,000 cases before the end of today. Michigan has seen an order of magnitude increase in 8 days. Deaths are also climbing exponentially, and hot spots are popping up all over the U.S. (e.g., New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago, etc.).

You are preaching to the choir so to speak. Exponential with a doubling every 3 days means today's 100,000 is 1,000,000 in 10 days. and 10,000,000 10 days after that. Will it keep growing at that rate? we don't know. But 20 days is Easter - Trumps 'back to work' hope. He clearly does not understand the numbers or refuses to listen to those that know. If our current state of lock down is sufficient to turn the tide it will not get to 10,000,000 in 20 days. But so far there is not even a hint it is slowing down. But those are the markers. April 2nd if we are well below 400,000, then maybe it is working. If it is at or above 400,000 we are in serious trouble.

And still...pointing out the trend = "chicken little." I doubt anyone here will acknowledge that Trump's administration is seriously screwing up even if we DO see the 2.5M death numbers some are projecting. It will simply be waved away as "no one could have done better and thanks to Trump it's not 20M!" Unbelievable...

On that you are correct. The fantasy is that all criticism of Trump is manufactured and based on what is called TDS. Even in a pandemic where ignorance is death, where one is constantly behind unless one is always 2 doublings ahead, and where he must realize against the core of his nature that he must trust that others know more than he does about the situation.

[oxmixmudd]

Another lie as is the post before it. I'm done here, Pix. Lie away if you wish. I'm finished attempting to correct your lies and miss-characterizations. I trust the readers (except your circle of cronies, of course) to read my posts and appreciate what I actually think and say.

Last word to you.

You need not fear.

[carpedm9587]

Indeed, that is my primary point. China's numbers are consistent, we have seen other places turn the curve. But it takes a very aggressive approach to containment and isolation.

You are preaching to the choir so to speak. Exponential with a doubling every 3 days means today's 100,000 is 1,000,000 in 10 days. and 10,000,000 10 days after that. Will it keep growing at that rate? we don't know. But 20 days is Easter - Trumps 'back to work' hope. He clearly does not understand the numbers or refuses to listen to those that know. If our current state of lock down is sufficient to turn the tide it will not get to 10,000,000 in 20 days. But so far there is not even a hint it is slowing down. But those are the markers. April 2nd if we are well below 400,000, then maybe it is working. If it is at or above 400,000 we are in serious trouble.

On that you are correct. The fantasy is that all criticism of Trump is manufactured and based on what is called TDS. Even in a pandemic where he simply will not accept his shoot from the hip approach will completely miss the target, and where as a result he simply will not act aggressively enough to make a difference.

I thought 100,000 by the end of the day. We just crossed it...

[oxmixmudd]

I thought 100,000 by the end of the day. We just crossed it...

Every prediction I've made this week has been too optimistic. It's just out of control. The world is now 590,590 and looks hit 600,000+ perhaps even before the day is over.

[lilpixieofterror]

Another lie as is the post before it. I'm done here, Pix. Lie away if you wish. I'm finished attempting to correct your lies and miss-characterizations. I trust the readers (except your circle of cronies, of course) to read my posts and appreciate what I actually think and say.

Last word to you.

Of course I’m lying because you being at any sort of fault or not looking good, is impossible. You’ve gone out of your way, several times, to paint your opponents as uncaring and even outright sinister. No lie, just you incapable of facing why you get the reactions you get around here.

[Sparko]

I am not questioning that their methods are working... now. I am questioning how high the actual numbers got before they implemented them.

well, now I am questioning if their methods are working...

---
Report: China Stopped Testing for COVID-19. That's Why There Are Zero New Cases.

A report out of Japan by Apple Daily HK says that rosy view from China is a lie.

"Report by @appledaily_hk , Japanese news outlet interviewed Wuhan doctors, and confirmed Wuhan has stopped testing, that is why new case = 0 there. They release people in quarantine early too."
https://pjmedia.com/trending/report-...new-cases/amp/

And all those test kits they sent to Spain? Only 30% accurate. Spain is dumping them.

Spanish capital ditches ‘unreliable’ Chinese coronavirus test kits

Madrid stops using the kits and health ministry asks for them to be replaced after tests suggest they only have a 30 per cent accuracy level
Spanish government is reported to have ordered 340,000 of the kits, which the Shenzhen-based manufacturer said had an 80 per cent strike rate
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...irus-test-kits

[carpedm9587]

well, now I am questioning if their methods are working...

---
Report: China Stopped Testing for COVID-19. That's Why There Are Zero New Cases.

A report out of Japan by Apple Daily HK says that rosy view from China is a lie.

"Report by @appledaily_hk , Japanese news outlet interviewed Wuhan doctors, and confirmed Wuhan has stopped testing, that is why new case = 0 there. They release people in quarantine early too."
https://pjmedia.com/trending/report-...new-cases/amp/

And all those test kits they sent to Spain? Only 30% accurate. Spain is dumping them.

Spanish capital ditches ‘unreliable’ Chinese coronavirus test kits

Madrid stops using the kits and health ministry asks for them to be replaced after tests suggest they only have a 30 per cent accuracy level
Spanish government is reported to have ordered 340,000 of the kits, which the Shenzhen-based manufacturer said had an 80 per cent strike rate
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...irus-test-kits

If these reports from China are accurate, then they are as much in denial as Trump and a country with 1.433B people is very likely to see a massive pandemic hit their country. I frankly would not put it past the Chinese government to see this as a possible solution to their population problem. If it has a 1% mortality rate, that's 14.3M fewer people. And if they cut down medical care, especially to the elderly, it could be even higher. I would like to think that a people who value their heritage and ancestors would not think this way...but...

[firstfloor]

“ORANGE MAN BAD!!!!”

You asked for links and details carp, not my fault you can’t refute them. My links are not even from right wing sources, but CNN and NYT! Everything is Trump’s fault though, even when China lied for months.

Trump is not bad because he’s orange, rather, he is orange because he’s bad.

BAD MAN ORANGE .... the face makeup is a disguise.

[carpedm9587]

Trump is not bad because he’s orange, rather, he is orange because he’s bad.

BAD MAN ORANGE .... the face makeup is a disguise.