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  • Originally posted by little_monkey View Post
    The death rate for the flu stands at .01%. As far as the coronavirus, since it is new disease, the data is incomplete, but as of now its rate is at 2.3%.
    I think you have an extra zero. The commonly cited statistic for the flu is 0.1%. As a novel virus, we don't know the exact number for the coronavirus, but it seems clear it is above 1% and probably below 5%, making it 10-50 times as deadly. The reason we haven't seen as many deaths domestically thus far is a) we are early in the outbreak, and b) this virus is receiving attention and mitigation not received by the flu since 1918. We have not seen this level of social isolation, travel restrictions, and work closures for any flu outbreak. That gives the flu greater latitude to move through the population.

    We'd better HOPE we don't see the kind of motion through the population. With the kind of mortality it has, if this virus were to infect the population as widely as the flu, we would be counting worldwide deaths in millions and domestic deaths in at least hundreds of thousands.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Mountain Man View Post
      Trump was golfing with members of a championship team who had been invited to the White House, so it was a bit different than Obama hitting the links by himself. Here is the link that carpe originally posted:

      https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...ers-in-florida

      The links he posted in his response to you are about Trump's overall golfing habits, which is a bait-and-switch on his part because he knows his selective outrage (angry at Trump for mentioning TV ratings; fine with Obama out golfing while thousands were dying from the swine flue) doesn't give him a leg to stand on here.

      Oh, wait, he's just trolling us. Yeah, that's it.
      It is not a matter of who and when they play golf. It is matter of who provided the leadership in a pandemic crisis. Obama followed the science advisors proactively, and Trump waited for over six weeks.
      Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
      Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
      But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

      go with the flow the river knows . . .

      Frank

      I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

      Comment


      • Just a quick point on China, they have recently allowed the people in Wuhan to collect the ashes of their deceased relatives and there were said to be more than 200,000 urns. I find it hard to believe that only 3000 were due to the corona virus.

        https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/nati...death-toll/amp

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Chuckles View Post
          But it is no doubt going to remain a valid question according to MM.
          How wonderful it is to have you speak for me, but as little monkey helpfully pointed out, it remains a valid question, at least for now, "since it is new disease [and] the data is incomplete". We will get a fuller picture in time, but that probably won't happen for many months.
          Some may call me foolish, and some may call me odd
          But I'd rather be a fool in the eyes of man
          Than a fool in the eyes of God


          From "Fools Gold" by Petra

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Watermelon View Post
            Just a quick point on China, they have recently allowed the people in Wuhan to collect the ashes of their deceased relatives and there were said to be more than 200,000 urns. I find it hard to believe that only 3000 were due to the corona virus.

            https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/nati...death-toll/amp
            OK - I don't think China is being honest about its numbers - but I also don't think we should be adding to the confusion. Where does the 200,000 number come from? I am not finding it in the article you linked.
            Last edited by carpedm9587; 03-31-2020, 06:52 PM.
            The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

            I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

            Comment


            • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
              OK - I don't think Chin is being honest about its numbers - but I also don't think we should be adding to the confusion. Where does the 200,000 number come from? I am not finding it in the article you linked.
              Sorry that was just me adding to the confusion.

              Comment


              • If the origin date of the first case of the coronavirus is correct (November 17), it took 111 days ( about 3.5 months) to reach 100,000 infections (March 6). Twelve days later we cleared 200,000. Three days later 300,000 and three days after that 400,000. In the past six days, we have added another 100,000 about every 1.75 days. Today we look to add 75,000 cases worldwide in one day. Worldwide cases are on track to pass 1M on Thursday. U.S. cases will pass 200,000 tomorrow. If the growth continues, by early next week we will be adding 100,000 new cases per day worldwide and over 30,000 new cases per day in the U.S. Over 700 people have died in the U.S. today, and over 4,500 have died worldwide. If those growth curves continue, we will be seeing over 1,500 deaths per day in the U.S. and 6,000 deaths per day worldwide by early next week. The projections coming from the White House are for peak to still be 2 weeks off.

                If anyone still doubts the magnitude of this crisis - those numbers should be a sobering wake-up call.
                The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

                I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

                Comment


                • Originally posted by little_monkey View Post
                  Comparing to China, as of today, it has 81K cases. The US has 180K, more than double with 1/4 population of China. If that is not failed leadership, I wonder what it is...
                  China:

                  Lied about everything from the beginning...

                  So let’s believe everything they say now!

                  "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
                  GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                    I suspect I already know the answer....but I'm really curious about the reaction to this report. Apparently, a Florida pastor was arrested for hosting a gathering of more people than is allowed under the coronavirus restrictions in place in Florida.

                    Thoughts?
                    That was brought up here.

                    I don't think he should have been so defiant -- yet.

                    But I much more think his arrest was a blatant violation of First Amendment protections.
                    Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.

                    Beige Federalist.

                    Nationalist Christian.

                    "Everybody is somebody's heretic."

                    Social Justice is usually the opposite of actual justice.

                    Proud member of the this space left blank community.

                    Would-be Grand Vizier of the Padishah Maxi-Super-Ultra-Hyper-Mega-MAGA King Trumpius Rex.

                    Justice for Ashli Babbitt!

                    Justice for Matthew Perna!

                    Arrest Ray Epps and his Fed bosses!

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by carpedm9587 View Post
                      If the origin date of the first case of the coronavirus is correct (November 17), it took 111 days ( about 3.5 months) to reach 100,000 infections (March 6). Twelve days later we cleared 200,000. Three days later 300,000 and three days after that 400,000. In the past six days, we have added another 100,000 about every 1.75 days. Today we look to add 75,000 cases worldwide in one day. Worldwide cases are on track to pass 1M on Thursday. U.S. cases will pass 200,000 tomorrow. If the growth continues, by early next week we will be adding 100,000 new cases per day worldwide and over 30,000 new cases per day in the U.S. Over 700 people have died in the U.S. today, and over 4,500 have died worldwide. If those growth curves continue, we will be seeing over 1,500 deaths per day in the U.S. and 6,000 deaths per day worldwide by early next week. The projections coming from the White House are for peak to still be 2 weeks off.

                      If anyone still doubts the magnitude of this crisis - those numbers should be a sobering wake-up call.
                      Those numbers are based on a model which has variables that can be adjusted to attain all sorts of numbers big and small. That should be a caution to relying on such models.

                      Comment


                      • Like a hot knife through butter.
                        “I think God, in creating man, somewhat overestimated his ability.” ― Oscar Wilde
                        “And if there were a God, I think it very unlikely that He would have such an uneasy vanity as to be offended by those who doubt His existence” ― Bertrand Russell
                        “not all there” - you know who you are

                        Comment


                        • Article by a couple of Pittsburgh nerds.

                          Summary: The data related to purpose and benefits of the current "mitigation" strategies are being presented in an incomplete and therefore misleading fashion. Proponents are not making clear that the current strategies are only delay tactics, will have NO ultimate benefit if viable treatments are not developed and enacted quickly, and could actually lead to WORSE ultimate outcomes if the peak is delayed too far.
                          Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.

                          Beige Federalist.

                          Nationalist Christian.

                          "Everybody is somebody's heretic."

                          Social Justice is usually the opposite of actual justice.

                          Proud member of the this space left blank community.

                          Would-be Grand Vizier of the Padishah Maxi-Super-Ultra-Hyper-Mega-MAGA King Trumpius Rex.

                          Justice for Ashli Babbitt!

                          Justice for Matthew Perna!

                          Arrest Ray Epps and his Fed bosses!

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                            Those numbers are based on a model which has variables that can be adjusted to attain all sorts of numbers big and small. That should be a caution to relying on such models.
                            Good point, we should never rely on models which use variables, because we don't know the exact quantity those variables represent..............

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                              again, China is lying about their numbers, and they have stopped testing. That is why their new cases dropped off so instantly. They aren't counting.
                              ccording to here, they are still reporting new cases, but only a few dozen each day. It seems too low to be true.
                              US reported cases are still rising by more than 20,000 per day.
                              Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

                              MM: First of all, the Bible is a fixed document.
                              MM on covid-19: We're talking about an illness with a better than 99.9% rate of survival.

                              seer: I believe that so called 'compassion' [for starving Palestinian kids] maybe a cover for anti Semitism, ...

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Roy View Post
                                ccording to here, they are still reporting new cases, but only a few dozen each day. It seems too low to be true.
                                US reported cases are still rising by more than 20,000 per day.
                                The reports are that the lockdown was conducted with extreme completeness, few were wandering the streets. I think those low numbers are credible.

                                Comment

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