Coronavirus Outbreak...

[lilpixieofterror]

The tendency on the denial side is to overestimate the percentage of asymptomatic cases. This reduces the calculated mortality and gives them a reason to claim the US or the world is 'overreacting'

Do the math yourself, what does it say?

Sweden reported cases - 32,000
Those that show antibodies - 780,000

What gives?

[DivineOb]

Do the math yourself, what does it say?

Sweden reported cases - 32,000
Those that show antibodies - 780,000

What gives?

It's impossible for someone who is interested in getting to the truth of the world to get so many things wrong just by chance or accident. The linked article (and message you replied to) clearly stated that the 7.8% figure applied to *Stockholm* and that other parts of in Sweden had a lower rate.

Don't get it.

[lilpixieofterror]

It's impossible for someone who is interested in getting to the truth of the world to get so many things wrong just by chance or accident. The linked article (and message you replied to) clearly stated that the 7.8% figure applied to *Stockholm* and that other parts of in Sweden had a lower rate.

Don't get it.

Total population of Stockholm - 974,073
7.8% of that - 75,977
Total reported China flu cases, in all of Sweden - 32,172
Total cases in Stockholm - 10,777

[Zara]

Do the math yourself

Sweden population - 10 million
Sweden total deaths - 3,871
Infection rate - 7.8% (780,000)
Death rate - .49%

Deadlier than the typical flu? Yes, as deadly as the Spanish Flu? No.

Reading comprehension really isn't your thing, eh. Stockholm and Sweden are not the same place. Stockholm county has a population of ~2.2 million, it is also where the most people have died - 1,855. Additionally, I made an error in what I wrote, it was 7.3% in Stockholm.

Assuming they mean the county and not the city, the ifr is around 1.1%. This is back of the envelope stuff.

Again, of the total sample just 2.7% of people over 65 have had the virus. Since they are the most likely to die, considerable concern remains in place.

[Zara]

Total population of Stockholm - 974,073
7.8% of that - 75,977
Total reported China flu cases, in all of Sweden - 32,172
Total cases in Stockholm - 10,777

Are you deranged? if we were to make it proportional, and take a third of the deaths, 1290 deaths divided by 75,977, then the cfr for Stockholm with your numbers is 1.7%.

You find it funny?

[carpedm9587]

Do the math yourself

Sweden population - 10 million
Sweden total deaths - 3,871
Infection rate - 7.8% (780,000)
Death rate - .49%

Deadlier than the typical flu? Yes, as deadly as the Spanish Flu? No.

I actually don't dispute any of these numbers. Although they arise from multiple sources. But I find myself amused. One of the primary objections we hear repeated over and over from the right is how untrustworthy the numbers and statistics are, and the models are flawed. Every time a number comes up that is not liked, there is a long list of reasons for why the numbers cannot be trusted. Now an argument is being made based on exactly that same source of numbers. Not only that, but it is being compared to a number (the Spanish Flu mortality number) that was derived in a time when anti-body testing was largely unknown, so knowing what someone actually died from was extremely difficult, and there was no global strategy for tracking the data. Heck, the only global anything at the time was the telegraph. All of the numbers for that flu were statistically generated, AFAIK. Yet, somehow, we can trust those numbers?

The whole thing strikes me a bit funny.

[lilpixieofterror]

Are you deranged? if we were to make it proportional, and take a third of the deaths, 1290 deaths divided by 75,977, then the cfr for Stockholm with your numbers is 1.7%.

You find it funny?

We don’t know how many have died in Stockholm because we don’t have an official tally from the city, but 1.7% is a whole lot lower than the nearly 12% if we used simply confirmed cases. Kinda showing there’s a whole lot of infections that are unconfirmed. Over 1 in 7, in some areas, if this study is accurate.

[lilpixieofterror]

I actually don't dispute any of these numbers. Although they arise from multiple sources. But I find myself amused. One of the primary objections we hear repeated over and over from the right is how untrustworthy the numbers and statistics are, and the models are flawed. Every time a number comes up that is not liked, there is a long list of reasons for why the numbers cannot be trusted. Now an argument is being made based on exactly that same source of numbers. Not only that, but it is being compared to a number (the Spanish Flu mortality number) that was derived in a time when anti-body testing was largely unknown, so knowing what someone actually died from was extremely difficult, and there was no global strategy for tracking the data. Heck, the only global anything at the time was the telegraph. All of the numbers for that flu were statistically generated, AFAIK. Yet, somehow, we can trust those numbers?

The whole thing strikes me a bit funny.

Considering we are supposed to be looking at one of the most deadly plagues, in human history, but we’re actually seeing a plague more like the Hong Kong Flu. That’s a pretty big difference. Is it more deadly than a typical flu season? Yes, is it on the level of the Spanish Flu? No. The Russian Flu? No.

[lilpixieofterror]

Reading comprehension really isn't your thing, eh. Stockholm and Sweden are not the same place. Stockholm county has a population of ~2.2 million, it is also where the most people have died - 1,855. Additionally, I made an error in what I wrote, it was 7.3% in Stockholm.

Assuming they mean the county and not the city, the ifr is around 1.1%. This is back of the envelope stuff.

Again, of the total sample just 2.7% of people over 65 have had the virus. Since they are the most likely to die, considerable concern remains in place.

And what is the number of confirmed cases vs presumed? What was the estimates of how many should be dead vs how many are?

[carpedm9587]

Considering we are supposed to be looking at one of the most deadly plagues, in human history, but we’re actually seeing a plague more like the Hong Kong Flu. That’s a pretty big difference. Is it more deadly than a typical flu season? Yes, is it on the level of the Spanish Flu? No. The Russian Flu? No.

Who, exactly, has claimed, "the most deadly plague in human history?"

[lilpixieofterror]

Who, exactly, has claimed, "the most deadly plague in human history?"

2.1 million dead Americans when 675,000 Americans died during the Spanish Flu would no doubt make it one of the deadliest plagues in human history.

[carpedm9587]

So, we have begun "reopening." Yesterday, our new cases jumped to 28,179 after hovering between 20,000 and 22,000 for three days. New deaths, after dropping over the weekend, have returned to between 1,400 and 1,600 for the last three days. More concerning, we cannot turn to NY for the dominant pat of that number anymore. For a long time, NY represented almost one third of the numbers. Now they represent about 1/10th of each. The numbers are now more broadly distributed across the country. Further, if you do a state-by-state examination, you find that the states that have not begin a downward turn, or are showing renewed upward energy, are generally the states that have been most aggressive at re-opening.

We have entered what I consider to be the most dangerous part of this pandemic: people are tired of being limited/confined and are resisting those requirements. Unfortunately, the virus is not tired and happy to simply follow its programming. As we relax and become more careless, it will simply have more opportunity to spread. And it will spread. We are seeing it across the world. World numbers are also on the ascent. They have been above 100,000 new cases for the last two days. They have done that only one other time according to my tracking, and that was on April 24th.

We are going to be in for a rough ride. Instead of joining together and working to defeat the pandemic - the pandemic has become a political partisan issue. Unfortunately, the virus doesn't care about partisan politics either. So while we are wrangling about partisan issues, it is taking advantage of our guard being down and continuing its inexorable march. The virus doesn't care about spin, hype, cherry picked data, or anything else being engaged in. It just finds the next vulnerable person and moves on. The more people make themselves vulnerable, the more it will spread. It's as simple as that.

[carpedm9587]

2.1 million dead Americans when 675,000 Americans died during the Spanish Flu would no doubt make it one of the deadliest plagues in human history.

I think you're forgetting a few plagues.

And, of course, there are these.

Most of the claims I have seen are "worst than the flu." As best I can tell, that remains true.

And do recall that 2.1M dead was the projection if no mitigation efforts were taken.

[lilpixieofterror]

So, we have begun "reopening." Yesterday, our new cases jumped to 28,179 after hovering between 20,000 and 22,000 for three days. New deaths, after dropping over the weekend, have returned to between 1,400 and 1,600 for the last three days. More concerning, we cannot turn to NY for the dominant pat of that number anymore. For a long time, NY represented almost one third of the numbers. Now they represent about 1/10th of each. The numbers are now more broadly distributed across the country. Further, if you do a state-by-state examination, you find that the states that have not begin a downward turn, or are showing renewed upward energy, are generally the states that have been most aggressive at re-opening.

We have entered what I consider to be the most dangerous part of this pandemic: people are tired of being limited/confined and are resisting those requirements. Unfortunately, the virus is not tired and happy to simply follow its programming. As we relax and become more careless, it will simply have more opportunity to spread. And it will spread. We are seeing it across the world. World numbers are also on the ascent. They have been above 100,000 new cases for the last two days. They have done that only one other time according to my tracking, and that was on April 24th.

We are going to be in for a rough ride. Instead of joining together and working to defeat the pandemic - the pandemic has become a political partisan issue. Unfortunately, the virus doesn't care about partisan politics either. So while we are wrangling about partisan issues, it is taking advantage of our guard being down and continuing its inexorable march. The virus doesn't care about spin, hype, cherry picked data, or anything else being engaged in. It just finds the next vulnerable person and moves on. The more people make themselves vulnerable, the more it will spread. It's as simple as that.

Reopening had nothing to do with the jump in cases.

[lilpixieofterror]

I think you're forgetting a few plagues.

And, of course, there are these.

Most of the claims I have seen are "worst than the flu." As best I can tell, that remains true.

And do recall that 2.1M dead was the projection if no mitigation efforts were taken.

Which were how many centuries ago, with huge range in numbers? Anyway, 6 out of 7 cases slipping through the cracks is pretty serious, if the goal is containment, minimizing impact, and such a high death toll even with containment in full effect. I doubt this will be as deadly because the data seems to go against some assumptions. Mainly, this disease is way more deadly over 55 vs to those under 55 or those in poor health.