Coronavirus Outbreak...

[oxmixmudd]

All states that were under lockdown are now moving out of it. Some before ever actually seeing a real down turn. The ones opening the Earliest (+ the ones that never closed) are 3 weeks past the point where they were under lock down. We are gradually adding activity across the us.

2 weeks is a 95% confidence MAXIMUM incubation. Typical incubation is just 4 to 5 days pix. We've had more than enough time that has passed to begin to see the impact of the reopening in the data.

The average slope of the new daily cases is now slightly positive. The turn began around may 9, a week after reopening. It was on a shallow downward trend:

US daily cases chart 05222020.jpg

[lilpixieofterror]

Oh I have no doubt about that. We live in a "me-first" society today. So as the confinement has lagged on and people have begun to ask "what's in this for me?" it is inevitable that we would see this kind of fatigue and resistance.

disconnect from your opponents

Well...we need to reduce interactions until there is a way to protect all of the most vulnerable, whatever form that takes. Ideally, we would have a comprehensive testing strategy because those who have already had and survived the virus need no longer observe a lockdown. But there is no energy for this and we get the inevitable "my civil liberties" push back.

We now live in a society that cares more about itself than it's neighbors. It is a sad commentary on our society.

[oxmixmudd]

disconnect from your opponents

While the issues you raise are real and are not trivial, without the sort of widespread testing and contact tracing the Trump Administration has been reluctant to put in place, the only real solution pre-vaccine is to severely limit the contact between people. Accepting that reality, rather than fighting it. is the solution. If we accept that reality rather than getting people riled up about wearing face-masks to the point they actual kill and otherwise injure store employees enforcing they wear masks, then we can actually take new and creative steps towards making it possible to keep most of those businesses running while at the same time decreasing significantly the chances the virus will spread during their operation.

IF we can get people out of the "It's no worse than the flu"/"we are way overreacting" delusions, then we can - instead of all this fighting to return to a normal that can't exist again for 1 to 2 years - make the changes necessary to keep our nation and our world from crashing on account of it. Fighting what you can't change is destructive. We can't change the fact this virus is here, we can't change its nature, we can't change its capacity to spread or its real mortality or its long lasting side-effects. But what we can do - if we accept it is what it actually is - is we can then cooperatively and proactively engage as one people to find and implement SOLUTIONS to the problems you raise that take into account the REALITY of the virus and what it is.

[Roy]

17 pages of you not admitting you made a mistake about post-WWII Germany and hyperinflation proves otherwise.

[carpedm9587]

They see the rise in homelessness, child abuse, spouse abuse, suicide, and economic destruction and want things to change.disconnect from your opponents

Those are all alternative ways people are experiencing "fatigue." There is no question that taking precautionary steps is difficult. The last claim, however, you would have to document. So far - you haven't done much of that. Repeated requests for you to provide your sources have largely been ignored

This is correct.

We need to test staff members, watch them carefully for illness, only allow guest already proved negative allowed in, clean regularly, etc. That should cut our deaths down drastically.

This is correct.

Shutting down business, filling skateparks with sand, and arresting barbers will likely do far less.

This is an unsupported claim. By definition - if there is less virus in the general community, the probability of spread to the at-risk groups will be less. And, BTW, not all of the at-risk groups are in the three locations you cite.

Again - a single data point is not an argument when you are trying to make a statistical case. There is always a story available to support your position. The question is, does it represent a trend that needs to be addressed. You have not supported this position with verifiable data.

Until you do - this will be my last response in this series.

[little_monkey]

Trump tries his hand at extortion, against Michigan. Trump and the Repubs know that they only win elections these days if they suppress the vote or work a bit of Gerrymandering magic.

He might lose the next election by 5 millions, but it won't matter if he wins the electoral votes, and so Michigan is a must for Trump. Going after Gretchen will be an ongoing spectacle.

[DivineOb]

https://www.technologyreview.com/202...eopen-america/

Informed Democracy & Social Cybersecurity have been tracking bots and influence campaigns for a long time. Across US and foreign elections, natural disasters, and other politicized events, the level of bot involvement is normally between 10 and 20%, she says.

But in a new study, the researchers have found that bots may account for between 45 and 60% of Twitter accounts discussing covid-19. Many of those accounts were created in February and have since been spreading and amplifying misinformation, including false medical advice, conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus, and pushes to end stay-at-home orders and reopen America.

There is a reason those of us urging caution on re-opening, and urging that we make any decisions based on data. That reason is because there is a huge push to make decisions based on things other than caution and data. I have no idea who is behind this but there is no reason to believe that they are a super genius who is secretly looking out for my best interest.

It doesn't mean that those of you pushing to re-open ASAP are bad / wrong. It just means we know that a lot of the noise (on Twitter) pushing to re-open is not coming from genuine humans.

[carpedm9587]

Again - a single data point is not an argument when you are trying to make a statistical case. There is always a story available to support your position. The question is, does it represent a trend that needs to be addressed. You have not supported this position with verifiable data.

Until you do - this will be my last response in this series.

Wow - I really messed up THAT post...

[carpedm9587]

https://www.technologyreview.com/202...eopen-america/

Informed Democracy & Social Cybersecurity have been tracking bots and influence campaigns for a long time. Across US and foreign elections, natural disasters, and other politicized events, the level of bot involvement is normally between 10 and 20%, she says.

But in a new study, the researchers have found that bots may account for between 45 and 60% of Twitter accounts discussing covid-19. Many of those accounts were created in February and have since been spreading and amplifying misinformation, including false medical advice, conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus, and pushes to end stay-at-home orders and reopen America.

There is a reason those of us urging caution on re-opening, and urging that we make any decisions based on data. That reason is because there is a huge push to make decisions based on things other than caution and data. I have no idea who is behind this but there is no reason to believe that they are a super genius who is secretly looking out for my best interest.

It doesn't mean that those of you pushing to re-open ASAP are bad / wrong. It just means we know that a lot of the noise (on Twitter) pushing to re-open is not coming from genuine humans.

America has been hacked. And those who have been most hacked are in denial.

[Starlight]

But in a new study, the researchers have found that bots may account for between 45 and 60% of Twitter accounts discussing covid-19. Many of those accounts were created in February and have since been spreading and amplifying misinformation, including false medical advice, conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus, and pushes to end stay-at-home orders and reopen America.

Once America's enemies had to spend the blood of their soldiers to slaughter Americans.

Now, with Covid, they can kill Americans just by talking Republicans into going on murder-suicide sprees via 'reopening'.

[Bill the Cat]

Once America's enemies had to spend the blood of their soldiers to slaughter Americans.

Now, with Covid, they can kill Americans just by talking Republicans into going on murder-suicide sprees via 'reopening'.

Kevin_lol.gif God, you are stupid...

[Mountain Man]

https://www.breitbart.com/health/202...irus-patients/

[JimL]

https://www.breitbart.com/health/202...irus-patients/

And?

[carpedm9587]

And?

It adds to the "this is not a big deal" messaging. we're about to cross 100,000 dead, and it's still "this is not a big deal." It boggles the imagination.

[shunyadragon]

https://www.breitbart.com/health/202...irus-patients/

Actually anticipated, but eventually not needed, because at the time the COVID 19 cases were beginning to decline as they have since.