Coronavirus Outbreak...

[oxmixmudd]

I couldn't disagree more. The media is doing what the media should be doing: reporting on what is happening. Are they spinning the story to get eyeballs? Of course. That's the kind of news we all consume so we are getting what "we the people" want. Meanwhile, the medical experts are very clear about this, and the consequences of a "it will just go away" attitude have enormous historical precedence. Look at the history of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic and what has already happened in Italy, Iran, and Spain.

Germany is interesting to me. Whatever they are doing, it has some strong positive elements. They are fifth in total number of cases (over 10,000) but have only 27 who have died from the disease so far. Why is their mortality rate so much lower than other countries? Just dividing total deaths by total reported cases (and I know that is a simplistic way of determining mortality rate that excludes a lot of nuance):

• China: 3,241 deaths out of 81,102 reported cases = 4.00% mortality
• Italy: 2,503 out of 31,506 reported cases = 7.94% mortality
• Iran: 1,135 of 17361 cases = 6.54% mortality
• Spain: 602 of 13784 = 4.37%
• Germany: 26 of 10,069 = 0.26%
• S. Korea: 84/8,413 = 1.00%
• France: 148/7696 = 1.92%
• U.S.: 114/6,496 = 1.75%
• Switzerland: 27/2700 = 1.00%

Germany is clearly out of the norm. Why? Something they are doing right? Lack of reporting/testing?

Curious...

I'm guessing right now that it is a combination of robust testing coupled with a relatively short timeframe in exponential growth (for a long while they were relatively flat growth). they are on a VERY steep rise right now in terms of the number of deaths, much steeper (logarithmic) than the rise in cases - which would tend to imply we will see their mortality rise over the coming days.

[carpedm9587]

I'm guessing right now that it is a combination of robust testing coupled with a relatively short timeframe in exponential growth (for a long while they were relatively flat growth). they are on a VERY steep rise right now in terms of the number of deaths, much steeper (logarithmic) than the rise in cases - which would tend to imply we will see their mortality rise over the coming days.

Here's hoping that all of the efforts at social isolation are going to have an impact, and quickly. Economic indicators for Q2 are VERY bad, and our leadership already has us in a $1T deficit position, so any stimulus will likely blow that number to $2T or even more. It will be interesting to see how that is responded to, especially given the responses to the LAST stimulus at a time of economic downturn.

[lilpixieofterror]

One quirk of the 1918 epidemic was the extremely old adults probably had some immunity, leading some to surmise that there was a related virus which swept the nation in the 1830s. The Spanish flu moved fast when it did infect. The mortality rates were highest in the war torn areas of Belgium and France. And some have suggested that the young might have been affected by a greater virus load, greater exposure (older people are more likely to be cautious).

I’ve heard that as one theory, but it doesn’t explain the children not dying from it. As I have read, it’s believed the primary cause of death was an immune system over reaction. Young, healthy adults are more prone to this type of complication because the immune system is stronger vs in the elderly and in children. Combine this theory with the theory that the 1890’s era flu was related to the Spanish Flu, which gave those older adults more immunity towards the Spanish Flu and that does make sense.

I do wonder if we are really 'cleaner' today, cleanliness was probably the single practiced emphasized in nursing (back then nurses were little more than maidservants, the profession has changed). Though outside of hospitals things are cleaner today.

Microbiology was not as advanced as we see today. We also did not isolated rooms, but many open bay areas were used during the Spanish Flu, likely further spreading the disease to previously uninflected people. Better trained staff, more capable of responding to problems vs Nurses of the era. Liquid soap was a pretty novel idea still, but many of the medical devices we depend on today didn’t exist, were far less advanced, or not in widespread usage. This alone, likely would have made an impact on the Spanish Flu, without any sort of measures beyond that. Things have changed a lot, in the century since 1918. One of the local hospitals here hangs up pictures of how the hospital looked in the 1910’s and it’s a huge difference to today’s and it’s still uses many of the same buildings.

Have you seen the comparison of Philadelphia and St Louis? St Louis establish a partial lockdown, limiting public events, while Philly did nothing, and paid the price in lives.We are relying on the same practices of a century ago. Much of our hard info comes from epidemiological studies from Singapore and South Korea, who were able to effectively record and track cases, a point brought up by Gov Cuomo and Gov. "Snake" Inslee of Washington.

That still doesn’t answer what I said. Philadelphia would had likely faired better, today. Even with no other changes beyond modern standards being applied.

[oxmixmudd]

Here's hoping that all of the efforts at social isolation are going to have an impact, and quickly. Economic indicators for Q2 are VERY bad, and our leadership already has us in a $1T deficit position, so any stimulus will likely blow that number to $2T or even more. It will be interesting to see how that is responded to, especially given the responses to the LAST stimulus at a time of economic downturn.

Unfortunately the US plan for handling this shows 18 months for the duration of the pandemic. And if it is less than that, there will be major shortages and undercapacity at medical facilities:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/u...gtype=Homepage

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

This graphic is from the second link and shows the relative impacts of percent infected and time. It implies that to avoid at least partially overrunning our medical facilities we must keep the total number infected @ 20% or less and the wave of infections must span 18 months. Shorten that, or increase the infection percentage, and it gets bad fast.

percent shortage hospitals corona.jpg

[simplicio]

IÂ’ve heard that as one theory, but it doesnÂ’t explain the children not dying from it. As I have read, itÂ’s believed the primary cause of death was an immune system over reaction. Young, healthy adults are more prone to this type of complication because the immune system is stronger vs in the elderly and in children. Combine this theory with the theory that the 1890Â’s era flu was related to the Spanish Flu, which gave those older adults more immunity towards the Spanish Flu and that does make sense.



Microbiology was not as advanced as we see today. We also did not isolated rooms, but many open bay areas were used during the Spanish Flu, likely further spreading the disease to previously uninflected people. Better trained staff, more capable of responding to problems vs Nurses of the era. Liquid soap was a pretty novel idea still, but many of the medical devices we depend on today didnÂ’t exist, were far less advanced, or not in widespread usage. This alone, likely would have made an impact on the Spanish Flu, without any sort of measures beyond that. Things have changed a lot, in the century since 1918. One of the local hospitals here hangs up pictures of how the hospital looked in the 1910Â’s and itÂ’s a huge difference to todayÂ’s and itÂ’s still uses many of the same buildings.



That still doesnÂ’t answer what I said. Philadelphia would had likely faired better, today. Even with no other changes beyond modern standards being applied.

Bar soap is effective, its actions on viruses also make it an effective insecticide, it dissolves the proteins (or some such thing). The ventilators we have today may well be one key difference in survival, the 'acute respiratory syndrome' necessitates keeping them alive long enough to effect some cure or allow the body's immune system to kick in.

The example of Philadelphia is so poignant today is that the thing we fear happened, hospitals were swamped with cases. Priests wandered the streets with carts calling on people to bring out their dead, a difference with St Louis. Lombardy (Italy) death tolls jumped the moment hospitals become over full and there was no room. We have the examples of Wuhan and elsewhere, people left at home have lower survival rates. I do not know if we can ramp up ventilator production, I suspect hospitals are sorry they got rid of their outdated equipment.

Suctioning of patients became widespread in the early 1900s, and helped patients in respiratory distress a century ago. What we have today is largely what they had, though better.

[lilpixieofterror]

Bar soap is effective, its actions on viruses also make it an effective insecticide, it dissolves the proteins (or some such thing). The ventilators we have today may well be one key difference in survival, the 'acute respiratory syndrome' necessitates keeping them alive long enough to effect some cure or allow the body's immune system to kick in.

If we’re talking about a bar of soap sitting in your shower, sure, but what about one sitting in a public restroom. Would it be as hygienic?

The example of Philadelphia is so poignant today is that the thing we fear happened, hospitals were swamped with cases. Priests wandered the streets with carts calling on people to bring out their dead, a difference with St Louis. Lombardy (Italy) death tolls jumped the moment hospitals become over full and there was no room. We have the examples of Wuhan and elsewhere, people left at home have lower survival rates. I do not know if we can ramp up ventilator production, I suspect hospitals are sorry they got rid of their outdated equipment.

Suctioning of patients became widespread in the early 1900s, and helped patients in respiratory distress a century ago. What we have today is largely what they had, though better.

That still doesn’t answer what I said in the least.

[simplicio]

If we’re talking about a bar of soap sitting in your shower, sure, but what about one sitting in a public restroom. Would it be as hygienic?

That still doesn’t answer what I said in the least.

Actually yes. Bar soap is easily washed off, the grimy bar is easily transformed into a shiny clean bar. Very few public restrooms have bar soap because of the 'yuk' factor, the chemistry of the soap stays the same. Though I had in mind household and hospital uses. Soapy water is overlooked as an effective sanitizer.

It does answer what you said, you just choose to ignore it. That is one of the ironies, today's effective first line of defense practice is the same one used through the centuries, isolation and not assembling. The comparisons of Philadelphia and St Louis are brought up because they are relevant. Yes, Philadelphia today is better equipped, but it is epidemiologists who say that the same problems can hit Philadelphia today, with similar death tolls.

[lilpixieofterror]

Actually yes. Bar soap is easily washed off, the grimy bar is easily transformed into a shiny clean bar. Very few public restrooms have bar soap because of the 'yuk' factor, the chemistry of the soap stays the same. Though I had in mind household and hospital uses. Soapy water is overlooked as an effective sanitizer.

Ever been in a public restroom? You can’t even get people to not pee all over the place or to clean up after themselves let alone get them to wash off a soap bar.

It does answer what you said, you just choose to ignore it. That is one of the ironies, today's effective first line of defense practice is the same one used through the centuries, isolation and not assembling. The comparisons of Philadelphia and St Louis are brought up because they are relevant. Yes, Philadelphia today is better equipped, but it is epidemiologists who say that the same problems can hit Philadelphia today, with similar death tolls.

And when was the last time, we had such a flu season since 1918-1920?

[oxmixmudd]

Ever been in a public restroom? You can’t even get people to not pee all over the place or to clean up after themselves let alone get them to wash off a soap bar.



And when was the last time, we had such a flu season since 1918-1920?

Before you updated from 'pea' to 'pee' i had a very humorous image pop into my head ...

[simplicio]

Ever been in a public restroom? You can’t even get people to not pee all over the place or to clean up after themselves let alone get them to wash off a soap bar.

And when was the last time, we had such a flu season since 1918-1920?

Its not the urine on the floor that poses the greater risk, it is fecal matter; and the fecal-oral transmission route for SARS-CoV-2 may be one factor. Which makes the soap, the old fashioned cleaning techniques, applicable and effective.

Soap is only effective when used. And it was used as a cleaning agent in hospitals, by nurses, a century ago. Hospitals did have some level of cleanliness back then, when they had adequate nursing staff. (even with the wood floors, which would not go today)

[Mountain Man]

Indeed! And the reason there is “incomplete data” is that as of today only 47,000 tests have been run in the US due to the shocking lack of testing kits.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...reasing-2020-3

I know what you're implying, but...

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the renowned director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, addressed restraints on the testing process for the Wuhan coronavirus, saying neither President Donald Trump nor the CDC are to blame for shortcomings.

In an interview with political commentator Hugh Hewitt on “The Hugh Hewitt Show” Tuesday, Fauci said a “technical glitch” slowed the production of tests at the outset of the pandemic.

“It was a complicated series of multiple things that conflated that just, you know, went the wrong way. One of them was a technical glitch that slowed things down in the beginning. Nobody’s fault. There wasn’t any bad guys there. It just happened,” Fauci said.

At a congressional hearing on coronavirus test kits last week, Facui admitted, “The system is not really geared to what we need right now.”

Hewitt asked Fauci, who has advised presidents since 1984, whether “anything about the production of the test [is] President Trump’s fault” or if any other president would have run into the same problem.

“Oh, absolutely. This has nothing to do with anybody’s fault, certainly not the president’s fault,” Fauci said.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/17...-trumps-fault/

[carpedm9587]

I know what you're implying, but...

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the renowned director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, addressed restraints on the testing process for the Wuhan coronavirus, saying neither President Donald Trump nor the CDC are to blame for shortcomings.

In an interview with political commentator Hugh Hewitt on “The Hugh Hewitt Show” Tuesday, Fauci said a “technical glitch” slowed the production of tests at the outset of the pandemic.

“It was a complicated series of multiple things that conflated that just, you know, went the wrong way. One of them was a technical glitch that slowed things down in the beginning. Nobody’s fault. There wasn’t any bad guys there. It just happened,” Fauci said.

At a congressional hearing on coronavirus test kits last week, Facui admitted, “The system is not really geared to what we need right now.”

Hewitt asked Fauci, who has advised presidents since 1984, whether “anything about the production of the test [is] President Trump’s fault” or if any other president would have run into the same problem.

“Oh, absolutely. This has nothing to do with anybody’s fault, certainly not the president’s fault,” Fauci said.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/17...-trumps-fault/

Yeah...that is true about the CDC errors related to the CDC-produced test kits. It does not explain rejection of the WHO-developed test kits, nor the slow ramp-up to testing capacity. The claim you made that 30-50% of the WHO test kits were showing false positives has not been substantiated anywhere. It's based on one person's interview with one newspaper outlet, AFAICT. All requests for further substantiation and all searches on my part to find substantiation have found nothing. There are several things the administration and the CDC could have done to speed things up, including:

1) Accepting tests kits developed in other countries, especially those released by the WHO
2) Releasing state and public-sector labs to develop and produce tests kits LONG before they actually did.
3) Declaring the national emergency long before they actually did - instead of repeating the "we have it all under control" mantra for weeks.
4) Redirecting funds to the distribution of test kits as part of the national emergency. After all, if you can do it for a wall, why not test kits?

AFAICT, none of this was addressed. Instead, we had more of Trump's "control the media" approach, as if enough spin might keep the virus at bay. Reality has caught up to him, so now (of course), he's denying he ever denied the possibility of a pandemic and his administration has, once again, been "perfect."

If it wasn't so tragic, it would be laughable.

[oxmixmudd]

I know what you're implying, but...

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the renowned director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, addressed restraints on the testing process for the Wuhan coronavirus, saying neither President Donald Trump nor the CDC are to blame for shortcomings.

In an interview with political commentator Hugh Hewitt on “The Hugh Hewitt Show” Tuesday, Fauci said a “technical glitch” slowed the production of tests at the outset of the pandemic.

“It was a complicated series of multiple things that conflated that just, you know, went the wrong way. One of them was a technical glitch that slowed things down in the beginning. Nobody’s fault. There wasn’t any bad guys there. It just happened,” Fauci said.

At a congressional hearing on coronavirus test kits last week, Facui admitted, “The system is not really geared to what we need right now.”

Hewitt asked Fauci, who has advised presidents since 1984, whether “anything about the production of the test [is] President Trump’s fault” or if any other president would have run into the same problem.

“Oh, absolutely. This has nothing to do with anybody’s fault, certainly not the president’s fault,” Fauci said.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/17...-trumps-fault/

It is always possible that some element of failure associated with how this situation has been handled by the white house may not in fact have been a consequence of that incompetence.

But given Trump's unwillingness to tell the truth, his willingness to lie, even about events on tape of just a few days ago, and his ongoing demand for absolute loyalty or the chopping block, we will never actually know which elements might have been those few.

What we do know is that Trump dragged his feet and played it down for as long as possible, at times invoking pure fantasy as a counter to the legitimate science that was raising very real alarms, and at great cost to the effectiveness of the US response to it.

This event -albeit at great cost- has brought into fine focus the foolhardiness and consequences of electing a narcissistic leader ignorant of science, without a moral compass, without legitimate concern for anything other than his own interests, and willing to lie about anything and everything.

Fortunately, it does appear he has finally faced at least some elements of the reality before us and is beginning to act in a way that does not spell doom for too many of us.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/polit...ing/index.html

DT is in fact a formidable force - if you can get him pointed the right direction.


indeed, breaking news right now is that Trump is dispatching a hospital ship to NY harbor.

[NorrinRadd]

The bill currently working through congress would make all COVID-19 testing free. For now, unfortunately, it isn't and the situation you describe is fairly common. There are several in my community in the same situation, and I have heard the same thing from numerous friends around the country. It is part of the ongoing testing mess in the U.S. There is no easy solution for the poor right now.

ETA: I just got word that a local charity we started in our town, called Neighbor Helping Neighbor, is making its resources available to help pay for testing. If you have that kind of charitable organization in your community, it's an option.

Thanks. I'll see what I can find out.

In the U.S., not that I know of. I am in that situation myself. I had a very bad cold in late January and the cough STILL hasn't let go completely. Still, I am self-isolating and I am reasonably sure it was NOT Covid-19.

I lost all of January and a chunk of February. My symptom profile was much more consistent with flu, but I'm curious. I know several other people with similar experiences.

I have to admit that this one threw me a bit. The only reference to Kung Flu I can find is an article from the Harbin Clinic, but the term is only a marketing term for being proactive about protecting from the flu. Do you have any references about these antibodies? I'd love to read them.

Kung Flu is me being a smart-ass.

I'm short on time ATM. A quick Google search for Covid-19 plasma therapy brings up many current hits.

[Mountain Man]

What we do know is that Trump dragged his feet and played it down for as long as possible...

In fact, President Trump took action more swiftly and more resolutely than Obama and Biden did during the swine flu outbreak. Trump was on top of this thing months ago while Democrats were still pushing their impeachment hoax and accused him of racism for restricting travel to China.