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Thread: Coronavirus Outbreak...

  1. #3791
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    Because it can take ad long as 14 days, for symptoms to appear?
    And, unless I'm mistaken, we've had some states that never completely shut down and others that have been reopening to one degree or another since the beginning of May (3 weeks ago). So, again, how do you come to the conclusion that reopening has nothing to do with the increased numbers...?
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    What's that? lilpixieofterror's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    And, unless I'm mistaken, we've had some states that never completely shut down and others that have been reopening to one degree or another since the beginning of May (3 weeks ago). So, again, how do you come to the conclusion that reopening has nothing to do with the increased numbers...?
    It is broken down by state. Maybe you should try looking at each state?
    "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
    GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    I wasnít aware that the entire country was opened up or opened up for three weeks.
    As noted in my post, various states have had various approaches. Some states never completely shut down. Some states began opening near the end of April and some in early March. Indeed, there is a statistically significant correlation between states that either never shut down or began reopening 3-4 weeks ago and states that are seeing a continuing upward trend in their confirmed infection and death rates.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    That locking up the entire population, for a disease that affects mainly the old and sick, is why you see push back and fewer and fewer caring?
    Oh I have no doubt about that. We live in a "me-first" society today. So as the confinement has lagged on and people have begun to ask "what's in this for me?" it is inevitable that we would see this kind of fatigue and resistance.

    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    That we need to lock down nursing homes, hospice care centers, and hospitals areas with critical patiences vs stores, small businesses, and parks?
    Well...we need to reduce interactions until there is a way to protect all of the most vulnerable, whatever form that takes. Ideally, we would have a comprehensive testing strategy because those who have already had and survived the virus need no longer observe a lockdown. But there is no energy for this and we get the inevitable "my civil liberties" push back.

    We now live in a society that cares more about itself than it's neighbors. It is a sad commentary on our society.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

  5. Amen oxmixmudd amen'd this post.
  6. #3795
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    It is broken down by state. Maybe you should try looking at each state?
    I have. Why don't you take a moment and investigate the timing of reopening and the statistics for new infections and deaths on a state by state basis. I think you'll find an interesting correlation.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    I wasnít aware that the entire country was opened up or opened up for three weeks.
    All states that were under lockdown are now moving out of it. Some before ever actually seeing a real down turn. The ones opening the Earliest (+ the ones that never closed) are 3 weeks past the point where they were under lock down. We are gradually adding activity across the us.

    2 weeks is a 95% confidence MAXIMUM incubation. Typical incubation is just 4 to 5 days pix. We've had more than enough time that has passed to begin to see the impact of the reopening in the data.

    The average slope of the new daily cases is now slightly positive. The turn began around may 9, a week after reopening. It was on a shallow downward trend:

    US daily cases chart 05222020.jpg
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 05-22-2020 at 10:19 AM.
    He will reply, ĎTruly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  8. #3797
    What's that? lilpixieofterror's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carpedm9587 View Post
    Oh I have no doubt about that. We live in a "me-first" society today. So as the confinement has lagged on and people have begun to ask "what's in this for me?" it is inevitable that we would see this kind of fatigue and resistance.
    Or...

    They are business owners watching their business crumble

    Or...

    They canít afford to live at home, for months on end.

    Or...

    They see they have a low risk to themselves and decide its worth it to not end up losing their homes.

    Or...

    They see the rise in homelessness, child abuse, spouse abuse, suicide, and economic destruction and want things to change.

    Nah, that canít be it. They must be all selfish and uncaring! Yep, thatís it and thus your disconnect from your opponents. You donít understand them, but freely pass judgment upon them. Even when your assertions are ridiculous and ignore science themselves.

    Well...we need to reduce interactions until there is a way to protect all of the most vulnerable, whatever form that takes. Ideally, we would have a comprehensive testing strategy because those who have already had and survived the virus need no longer observe a lockdown. But there is no energy for this and we get the inevitable "my civil liberties" push back.
    We need to listen to the data and the data says person living in a nursing home, hospice care, or long term care is in the biggest danger. A large part of all deaths, in the US and the world, is from that group. Thatís important and tells us what groups we should protect. We need to test staff members, watch them carefully for illness, only allow guest already proved negative allowed in, clean regularly, etc. That should cut our deaths down drastically. Shutting down business, filling skateparks with sand, and arresting barbers will likely do far less.

    We now live in a society that cares more about itself than it's neighbors. It is a sad commentary on our society.
    Or...

    You donít understand your opponents and prefer strawman that makes them look bad. One of my friends is totally against it, I donít agree with her, but I understand her view. She suffered horrific abuse as a child, till someone figured it out and she and her siblings were sent to their grandparents. Her concern is abused children are suffering and with being locked away, fewer people are around now to sound the alarm. Her position isnít selfish, but caring.
    Last edited by lilpixieofterror; 05-22-2020 at 10:38 AM.
    "The man from the yacht thought he was the first to find England; I thought I was the first to find Europe. I did try to found a heresy of my own; and when I had put the last touches to it, I discovered that it was orthodoxy."
    GK Chesterton; Orthodoxy

  9. #3798
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    Or...

    They are business owners watching their business crumble

    Or...

    They canít afford to live at home, for months on end.

    Or...

    They see they have a low risk to themselves and decide its worth it to not end up losing their homes.

    Or...

    They see the rise in homelessness, child abuse, spouse abuse, suicide, and economic destruction and want things to change.

    Nah, that canít be it. They must be all selfish and uncaring! Yep, thatís it and thus your disconnect from your opponents. You donít understand them, but freely pass judgment upon them. Even when your assertions are ridiculous and ignore science themselves.



    We need to listen to the data and the data says person living in a nursing home, hospice care, or long term care is in the biggest danger. A large part of all deaths, in the US and the world, is from that group. Thatís important and tells us what groups we should protect. We need to test staff members, watch them carefully for illness, only allow guest already proved negative allowed in, clean regularly, etc. That should cut our deaths down drastically. Shutting down business, filling skateparks with sand, and arresting barbers will likely do far less. ...
    While the issues you raise are real and are not trivial, without the sort of widespread testing and contact tracing the Trump Administration has been reluctant to put in place, the only real solution pre-vaccine is to severely limit the contact between people. Accepting that reality, rather than fighting it. is the solution. If we accept that reality rather than getting people riled up about wearing face-masks to the point they actual kill and otherwise injure store employees enforcing they wear masks, then we can actually take new and creative steps towards making it possible to keep most of those businesses running while at the same time decreasing significantly the chances the virus will spread during their operation.

    IF we can get people out of the "It's no worse than the flu"/"we are way overreacting" delusions, then we can - instead of all this fighting to return to a normal that can't exist again for 1 to 2 years - make the changes necessary to keep our nation and our world from crashing on account of it. Fighting what you can't change is destructive. We can't change the fact this virus is here, we can't change its nature, we can't change its capacity to spread or its real mortality or its long lasting side-effects. But what we can do - if we accept it is what it actually is - is we can then cooperatively and proactively engage as one people to find and implement SOLUTIONS to the problems you raise that take into account the REALITY of the virus and what it is.
    Last edited by oxmixmudd; 05-22-2020 at 11:58 AM.
    He will reply, ĎTruly I tell you, whatever you did not do for one of the least of these, you did not do for me."

    "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets"

  10. #3799
    tWebber Roy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    Sweety, I display contempt for you because you passive aggressive contempt for myself is as obvious as the nose on your face. Donít like it, change your attitude, but see... I admit when I make a mistake.


    17 pages of you not admitting you made a mistake about post-WWII Germany and hyperinflation proves otherwise.
    Jorge: Functional Complex Information is INFORMATION that is complex and functional.

    mikewhitney: What if the speed of light changed when light is passing through water? ... I have 3 semesters of college Physics.

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  11. #3800
    tWebber carpedm9587's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post
    Or...

    They are business owners watching their business crumble

    Or...

    They canít afford to live at home, for months on end.

    Or...

    They see they have a low risk to themselves and decide its worth it to not end up losing their homes.

    Or...

    They see the rise in homelessness, child abuse, spouse abuse, suicide, and economic destruction and want things to change.

    Nah, that canít be it. They must be all selfish and uncaring! Yep, thatís it and thus your disconnect from your opponents. You donít understand them, but freely pass judgment upon them. Even when your assertions are ridiculous and ignore science themselves.
    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post

    Those are all alternative ways people are experiencing "fatigue." There is no question that taking precautionary steps is difficult. The last claim, however, you would have to document. So far - you haven't done much of that. Repeated requests for you to provide your sources have largely been ignored
    We need to listen to the data and the data says person living in a nursing home, hospice care, or long term care is in the biggest danger. A large part of all deaths, in the US and the world, is from that group. Thatís important and tells us what groups we should protect.
    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post

    This is correct.
    We need to test staff members, watch them carefully for illness, only allow guest already proved negative allowed in, clean regularly, etc. That should cut our deaths down drastically.
    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post

    This is correct.
    Shutting down business, filling skateparks with sand, and arresting barbers will likely do far less.
    Quote Originally Posted by lilpixieofterror View Post

    This is an unsupported claim. By definition - if there is less virus in the general community, the probability of spread to the at-risk groups will be less. And, BTW, not all of the at-risk groups are in the three locations you cite.
    Or...

    You donít understand your opponents and prefer strawman that makes them look bad. One of my friends is totally against it, I donít agree with her, but I understand her view. She suffered horrific abuse as a child, till someone figured it out and she and her siblings were sent to their grandparents. Her concern is abused children are suffering and with being locked away, fewer people are around now to sound the alarm. Her position isnít selfish, but caring.
    Again - a single data point is not an argument when you are trying to make a statistical case. There is always a story available to support your position. The question is, does it represent a trend that needs to be addressed. You have not supported this position with verifiable data.

    Until you do - this will be my last response in this series.
    The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy...returning violence for violence multiplies violence, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. Martin Luther King

    I would unite with anybody to do right and with nobody to do wrong. Frederick Douglas

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